China’s stance and US volatility converge to raise South Korea’s security risks



Analysis China’s stance and US volatility converge to raise South Korea’s security risks Pacific Forum survey shows China’s positions unchanged while Washington’s inconsistency undermines alliance trust John LeeOctober 7, 2025 SHARE COPY LINK FACEBOOK X LINKEDIN MASTODON ROK President Lee Jae-myung salutes the troops on Armed Forces Day, Oct. 1, 2025 \| Image: ROK Presidential Office The Pacific Forum’s new survey on Chinese views of Korean reunification lands as Beijing’s long-held opposition to U.S. troops and Washington’s volatility converge, heightening South Korea’s strategic risk. The survey itself offers few surprises about China’s position, but its timing is revealing. South Korea’s push for “self-reliant defense” now collides with U.S. incoherence, while China’s fixed stance gains new weight as the regional balance grows less predictable. CHINA’S FIXED POSITIONS The Pacific Forum asked 18 Chinese experts to assess Beijing’s thinking on inter-Korean peace and reunification. The respondents opposed any increase in U.S. or U.N. sanctions, described U.S. forces on © Korea Risk Group. All rights reserved. No part of this content may be reproduced, distributed, or used for commercial purposes without prior written permission from Korea Risk Group. LATEST ANALYSIS 01Lee Jae Myung’s ‘pacemaker’ strategy tests South Korea’s leverage with Trump 02Trump’s Korea investment victory lap masks safeguards Seoul still controls 03North Korean POW dispute tests Seoul-Kyiv trust and future Ukraine policy 04South Korea’s CPTPP push exposes the cost of turning trade gains into consensus 05AI storage boom gives South Korea battery makers an EV overcapacity lifeline 06South Korea’s Mexico strategy runs into the hard limits of USMCA politics 07Preschool test ban forces South Korea’s English hagwons to rethink placement 08Lee Jae Myung’s Wall Street pitch tests South Korea’s capital market credibility

Analysis

China’s stance and US volatility converge to raise South Korea’s security risks

Pacific Forum survey shows China’s positions unchanged while Washington’s inconsistency undermines alliance trust

John LeeOctober 7, 2025

China’s stance and US volatility converge to raise South Korea’s security risks

ROK President Lee Jae-myung salutes the troops on Armed Forces Day, Oct. 1, 2025 | Image: ROK Presidential Office

The Pacific Forum’s new survey on Chinese views of Korean reunification lands as Beijing’s long-held opposition to U.S. troops and Washington’s volatility converge, heightening South Korea’s strategic risk.

The survey itself offers few surprises about China’s position, but its timing is revealing. South Korea’s push for “self-reliant defense” now collides with U.S. incoherence, while China’s fixed stance gains new weight as the regional balance grows less predictable.

CHINA’S FIXED POSITIONS

The Pacific Forum asked 18 Chinese experts to assess Beijing’s thinking on inter-Korean peace and reunification. The respondents opposed any increase in U.S. or U.N. sanctions, described U.S. forces on

China’s stance and US volatility converge to raise South Korea’s security risks

LATEST ANALYSIS

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John Lee