Analysis Why South Korea faces an uphill battle in bid for Poland’s Orka sub programFierce competition and geography may hinder Seoul’s latest bid to elevate global defense presence John LeeSeptember 11, 2023 South Korea's inaugural 3,000-ton KSS-III submarine, part of a planned fleet of nine, is unveiled at the Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering (DSME) shipyard on Geoje Island, near Busan, Sept. 14, 2018 | Image: Presidential Archives of Korea Poland’s Orka submarine program aims to modernize and fortify the country’s maritime defenses by procuring advanced vessels that can serve as deterrents in the Baltic Sea. After a wave of successful weapons sales to Poland, South Korea has expressed interest in bidding for the Orka project. But despite Seoul’s proven track record of arms sales to Warsaw, a multitude of challenges make it difficult to extend this cooperation into Polish waters. KILLER ORKAS The past year has witnessed an increasing defense partnership between South Korea and Poland, who have inked a number of defense deals ranging from artillery systems to fighter jets. This has bolstered South Korea’s image as a rising player in the global defense market, which in turn boosts its chances of supplying submarines to Poland. On the surface, this export spike seems to position South Korea as a competitive partner for Poland’s Orka program, a flagship endeavor for the Polish navy since 2014 to acquire state-of-the-art submarines that serve as advanced platforms equipped with capabilities to strike both naval and land targets across a variety of combat scenarios. Emphasizing the ability to maintain extended operational autonomy and ensure stealthy movements in hostile terrains, the program demands capabilities like Air-Independent Propulsion (AIP) systems and most likely advanced missile systems as well, allowing them to strike land targets from a distance. The Orka program is set to play a pivotal role in Poland’s naval strategy, guarding its maritime frontiers and ensuring a robust response mechanism to evolving threats. SOUTH KOREAN AMBITIONS South Korea’s advanced technology, innovation and aggressive market strategies have catapulted its defense sector into a major international presence. Conglomerate Hanwha, which is at the heart of this growth, is now making a push for the Orka program. Central to South Korea’s bid is the Jang Bogo-III submarine, a 3,000-ton-class hybrid diesel vessel that boasts of increased submerged times thanks to a state-of-the-art air-independent propulsion and lithium batteries. Meeting several of Poland’s demanding requirements, the ROK even showcased the Jang Bogo-III to Polish President Andrzej Duda, emphasizing its alignment with the rigorous criteria of the Orka program. However, unlike in the case of its main battle tanks and self-propelled howitzers, South Korea faces significant challenges in its bid for the Orka program, particularly from Europe. Traditional titans in submarine manufacturing, like Germany, France and Sweden, have also thrown their hats into the ring. “In the procurement of tanks and howitzers, South Korea did not have any serious European rivals due to, among other things, the severe production limitations of the European defense industries,” Oskar Pietrewicz, a senior analyst at the Polish Institute of International Affairs, told Korea Pro. “In the case of submarines, European shipyards are much better prepared and offer solutions attractive to the needs of the Polish Navy.” Equally pressing is the matter of South Korea’s track record — or the lack thereof — in exporting 3,000-ton-class submarines. While the country’s domestic naval capabilities are robust, exporting such sophisticated technology would demand compliance with international norms, alignment with client specifications and adjustments to unfamiliar operational terrains. Beyond the nuances of naval warfare, there’s a pragmatic layer to Europe’s advantage: proximity. The logistical ease that European contenders bring to the table cannot be overstated. The convenience of supply chain management, rapid operational support and the ability to provide swift maintenance and repairs are invaluable. “The long distance to South Korean shipyards and submarine suppliers would cause many problems in their operation. Meanwhile, enough European submarine manufacturers are interested in cooperating with Poland in this field,” Pietrewicz said. “The German TKMS, the French Naval Group and the Swedish Saab are in a particularly strong position.” GEOPOLITICAL CONCERNS South Korea’s bid for the Orka program will likely carry with it geopolitical undertones that will resonate in Moscow and Minsk. Russia and Belarus have traditionally been wary of NATO’s growing presence in the Baltic Sea region, and South Korea’s involvement would introduce a new variable to this equation. While South Korea isn’t a NATO member, its unabashed support for the U.S. under current President Yoon Suk-yeol and participation in back-to-back NATO summits will likely amplify Russian and Belarusian dismay. Moscow has already labeled Seoul as “unfriendly” after it joined an international sanctions campaign against the Kremlin for its invasion of Ukraine and might view future moves by South Korea to supply weapons platforms to European NATO member states as a reinforcement that Seoul cannot be trusted if aligned with the West. Such perceptions could drive Russia closer to North Korea, seeking it as a strategic partner in the region. While not yet independently confirmed, Washington has suggested that North Korea has been channeling weapons to Russia for its ongoing conflict with Ukraine. This insinuates an already-established rapport in defense matters between the two nations. Such a foundation is ripe for expansion, especially if Russia senses a threat to its sphere of influence due to South Korea’s initiatives. The Yoon administration has spoken publicly about its growing concern about warming ties between Moscow and Pyongyang. ”It [closer ties between Russia and North Korea] would harm the security of the Republic of Korea and go against the rules, agreements and discussion items of international security at a single stroke,” an official from the ROK presidential officer told reporters in Jakarta during the recent ASEAN summit. Despite Russia’s fallen global standing, it is still one of the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council. Should the Kremlin choose to purchase North Korean weapons, South Korea would have limited options to respond. South Korea’s foray into the Orka program showcases its ambition to become a global defense powerhouse. While its previous defense agreements with Poland are commendable, the road ahead is laden with challenges. The competition, coupled with geographical and political considerations, poses significant difficulties for South Korea. However, Poland and South Korea can explore other avenues, perhaps in areas like cybersecurity, aviation, or ground defense systems, where South Korea has demonstrated capabilities and where Poland has emerging needs. Edited by Alannah Hill Poland’s Orka submarine program aims to modernize and fortify the country’s maritime defenses by procuring advanced vessels that can serve as deterrents in the Baltic Sea. After a wave of successful weapons sales to Poland, South Korea has expressed interest in bidding for the Orka project. But despite Seoul’s proven track record of arms sales to Warsaw, a multitude of challenges make it difficult to extend this cooperation into Polish waters. Get 30 days
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Analysis Why South Korea faces an uphill battle in bid for Poland’s Orka sub programFierce competition and geography may hinder Seoul’s latest bid to elevate global defense presence Poland’s Orka submarine program aims to modernize and fortify the country’s maritime defenses by procuring advanced vessels that can serve as deterrents in the Baltic Sea. After a wave of successful weapons sales to Poland, South Korea has expressed interest in bidding for the Orka project. But despite Seoul’s proven track record of arms sales to Warsaw, a multitude of challenges make it difficult to extend this cooperation into Polish waters. © Korea Risk Group. All rights reserved. |