Japan-China tensions expose limits of South Korea’s fragile thaw with Tokyo



Analysis Japan-China tensions expose limits of South Korea’s fragile thaw with Tokyo Dispute over Taiwan undermines Seoul’s strategic ambiguity and reveals unresolved mistrust in ROK-Japan cooperation John LeeNovember 25, 2025 SHARE COPY LINK FACEBOOK X LINKEDIN MASTODON ROK President Lee Jae-myung (Sept. 11, 2025), Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi meets with Chinese leader Xi Jinping (Oct. 31, 2025), map of the Taiwan Strait (July 1, 2008) \| Image: ROK Presidential Office, Prime Minister’s Office of Japan, Wikimedia Commons, edited by Korea Pro Japan-China relations have entered an adversarial phase following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks about Taiwan earlier this month, exposing the limits of the recent ROK-Japan rapprochement by stripping away the diplomatic theater that has concealed unresolved mistrust. During a budget committee hearing on Nov. 7, Takaichi said that the use of military force by China against Taiwan, such as a naval blockade, would likely constitute a “survival-threatening situation” that would force Japan to respond, implying that Tokyo might activate its self-defense or collective-defense mechanisms. Beijing has retaliated by postponing a planned ROK-Japan-China cultural ministerial meeting, elevatingthe issue to the © Korea Risk Group. All rights reserved. No part of this content may be reproduced, distributed, or used for commercial purposes without prior written permission from Korea Risk Group. LATEST ANALYSIS 01Lee Jae Myung’s ‘pacemaker’ strategy tests South Korea’s leverage with Trump 02Trump’s Korea investment victory lap masks safeguards Seoul still controls 03North Korean POW dispute tests Seoul-Kyiv trust and future Ukraine policy 04South Korea’s CPTPP push exposes the cost of turning trade gains into consensus 05AI storage boom gives South Korea battery makers an EV overcapacity lifeline 06South Korea’s Mexico strategy runs into the hard limits of USMCA politics 07Preschool test ban forces South Korea’s English hagwons to rethink placement 08Lee Jae Myung’s Wall Street pitch tests South Korea’s capital market credibility

Analysis

Japan-China tensions expose limits of South Korea’s fragile thaw with Tokyo

Dispute over Taiwan undermines Seoul’s strategic ambiguity and reveals unresolved mistrust in ROK-Japan cooperation

John LeeNovember 25, 2025

Japan-China tensions expose limits of South Korea’s fragile thaw with Tokyo

ROK President Lee Jae-myung (Sept. 11, 2025), Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi meets with Chinese leader Xi Jinping (Oct. 31, 2025), map of the Taiwan Strait (July 1, 2008) | Image: ROK Presidential Office, Prime Minister’s Office of Japan, Wikimedia Commons, edited by Korea Pro

Japan-China relations have entered an adversarial phase following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks about Taiwan earlier this month, exposing the limits of the recent ROK-Japan rapprochement by stripping away the diplomatic theater that has concealed unresolved mistrust.

During a budget committee hearing on Nov. 7, Takaichi said that the use of military force by China against Taiwan, such as a naval blockade, would likely constitute a “survival-threatening situation” that would force Japan to respond, implying that Tokyo might activate its self-defense or collective-defense mechanisms.

Beijing has retaliated by postponing a planned ROK-Japan-China cultural ministerial meeting, elevatingthe issue to the

Japan-China tensions expose limits of South Korea’s fragile thaw with Tokyo

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John Lee