The South Korean finance ministry published its 2024-2028 National Fiscal Management Plan (NFMP) on Wednesday, presenting a detailed projection of the country’s economic trajectory over the next five years.

The report forecasts moderate economic growth, a controlled inflation rate and a cautiously optimistic labor market. These projections offer potential growth opportunities for some sectors, but these will likely be subject to domestic policy changes and unpredictable global economic conditions.

MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND IMPLICATIONS

The NFMP projects South Korea’s gross domestic product (GDP) to reach 2.5% in 2024, and expects annual GDP growth to hover around 2.1% to 2.3% through 2028. However, it’s worth noting that the finance ministry’s projection is moderately more optimistic than the Bank of Korea’s. The central bank revised this year’s economic growth rate to 2.4% last month, citing concerns over weak domestic demand.

The NFMP’s more optimistic forecast is based on expectations of a rebound in global trade and a steady rise in domestic demand. The report also forecasts inflation to decrease to 2.5% in 2024 from the elevated levels experienced in 2023, driven by expected stabilization in global supply chains and moderation in commodity prices.

These contrasting economic projections suggest uncertainty in South Korea’s economic outlook. For instance, a sudden downturn in the global economy or an unexpected spike in commodity prices could upend these projections, creating a more challenging environment for South Korean businesses.

Nevertheless, the NFMP emphasizes economic stability and growth, reflecting the government’s broader strategic goals of reducing external vulnerabilities and fostering domestic resilience.

Economic graphs overlaid on the background of a person using a computer | Image: Canva

TECHNOLOGY SECTOR

The NFMP states that it will raise the country’s research and development (R&D) budget by 15% in 2024 for AI, 5G and cybersecurity and facilitate public-private partnership projects. For technology companies, this translates into several growth avenues, particularly in areas such as advanced manufacturing, digital services and software development.

Opportunities in this sector will continue to be driven by domestic and international demand. South Korea’s existing technological infrastructure and expertise will play a robust role in providing a solid foundation for tech firms to expand into new markets and enhance product offerings.

Additionally, the government’s decision to raise next year’s budget for R&D may give tech companies a much-needed boost.

However, these growth prospects must be tempered by the uncertainty in domestic demand. If consumer spending remains subdued, tech companies will likely face slower-than-expected growth, at least domestically. Current trends suggest that global demand for advanced tech products will remain robust.

Further, as governments worldwide enforce stricter data privacy laws due to the growing threat of cyber attacks, many tech firms will likely face increasing compliance costs, which will impose additional financial strain.

South Korean tech firms may not be able to avoid such compliance costs, as further data breaches like those Naver suffered at the end of 2023 will likely erode investor confidence.

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MANUFACTURING SECTOR

The NFMP also states it will provide up to $223.7 million (300 billion won) annually in tax incentives and direct subsidies for advanced manufacturing. Additionally, it will provide $74.6 million (100 billion won) per year in research grants for semiconductors and electric vehicles (EV) components.

These measures aim to promote the manufacturing sector’s adoption of advanced technologies like robotics and automation.

For instance, the South Korean government pins much of its expectations on next-generation semiconductor technologies and automotive components for EVs. The NFMP points out that the global AI race and increased global demand for chips and energy-efficient vehicles will likely translate to sustained demand for these goods.

However, while the South Korean government accurately points to these sectors as vital for the country’s future economic growth, they are vulnerable to global supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions. For instance, China’s curbs on germanium and gallium exports — vital for semiconductor manufacturing — have led to an almost twofold increase in the minerals’ prices in Europe over the past year.

While Seoul has had discussions with Beijing to ensure stable supply chains, it remains to be seen if such talks will be able to weather worsening U.S.-China relations, particularly as Beijing remains wary of Washington strengthening its alliances with Indo-Pacific nations.

Moreover, the cyclical nature of global semiconductor demand, driven by economic boom-bust cycles and rapid technological changes, means the South Korean government’s projections may be overly optimistic.

FINANCIAL SERVICES

As evidenced by Hana Financial Group’s decision to acquire a 25%-stake in BitGo Korea, a digital asset trust and security company, on Tuesday, the financial services sector is undergoing rapid transformation.

The NFMP highlights that the South Korean government will support expanding the sector’s digital financial infrastructure, including blockchain technology and digital currencies by providing $37.3 million (50 billion won) over five years.

As more traditional financial institutions such as banks and investment firms will likely increase their digital footprints, the NFMP presents an opportunity for them to expand their service offerings. Moreover, traditional financial institutions that embrace digital services could retain customers and fend off competition from smaller fintech startup companies.

However, the shift toward digital finance would expose these businesses to increased cybersecurity threats. South Korean financial institutions have already been targeted by North Korean cyber criminals for years, and it remains unclear if their cyber defense capabilities are up to the challenge of increased attacks.

Additionally, the sector’s transition toward digital finance has often come at the expense of brick-and-mortar branches, which has marginalized older populations that may lack the digital literacy required to take advantage of online banking platforms and mobile apps, leading to a growing digital divide.

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RISING DEBT

The NFMP outlines a series of measures aimed at fostering growth and stability across various sectors. However, the growing level of national debt raises concerns about the sustainability of these support measures.

South Korea’s debt is expected to reach about $1.1 trillion (1,512 trillion won) by 2028, equivalent to 50.5% of GDP. While such a debt-to-GDP ratio might appear moderate compared to many other advanced economies, it marks a significant increase for South Korea, which has historically maintained lower debt levels. 

As a result, potential pushback from fiscal hawks in the coming years may constrain the government from funding new initiatives or maintaining existing support.

For businesses, this poses a critical challenge — while the NFMP proposes a range of support measures, the rising debt levels suggest that these measures might not be as reliable or sustainable in the long run.

Companies may find themselves needing to rely more heavily on their own accrued capital to fund innovation and operations, particularly if government resources become stretched. Additionally, smaller firms without robust financial reserves may further lag behind the country’s conglomerate companies.

Given this possibility, businesses will likely maintain their pessimistic outlook and prepare for a future where government support might become less certain and more selective.

Edited by Alannah Hill