President Yoon Suk-yeol has declared that he seeks to make South Korea one of the world’s top four weapons suppliers, and so far, the country appears to be successfully working toward that goal, inking record sales this year thanks in large part to a $15 billion arms deal with Poland.

For wide–ranging reasons, such as its long alliance with the U.S., established industrial base, shifting Middle Eastern geopolitics and the nature of the ongoing Korean War, the ROK has earned a reputation as a reliable arms exporter and as a formidable military power in its own right.

But while arms sales are increasing and Global Firepower Index (GFP) ranks South Korea’s military as the world’s sixth strongest, the country’s reputation for military prowess may ironically warp perceptions of its actual power — and conceal critical weaknesses.

From shortages of ammunition to shrinking manpower, these problems stand in the way of the country’s security and run counter to the image it seeks to project as a weapons supplier. And while they won’t be easy to overcome, doing so will be essential to maintaining the military as a capable fighting force.

The ROK Army’s 6th Artillery Brigade conducts training exercises, Feb. 2011 | Image: Republic of Korea Armed Forces via Wikimedia Commons

MODERN MILITARY, OLD PROBLEMS

International media outlets have paid particular attention to South Korea’s sales of its modern K2 main battle tanks (MBTs) and K9 self-propelled howitzers, thus giving the impression of superior South Korean armored capabilities.

To an extent, this is true. The 2020 ROK Defense White Paper states that South Korea has approximately 2,130 MBTs. Perry Choi, a senior research specialist at the U.S.-based Center for Naval Analyses, explains that K1 and K2 variations make up the bulk of the ROK Army’s MBTs.

“Backed up with highly capable ROK mobile infantry and with almost certain air superiority, ROK’s K1s and K2s will be able to do their job effectively,” Choi told Korea Pro. 

It is precisely this image of South Korean military might that Seoul wants the world to see to ensure that its international clients continue lining up to purchase billions of dollars worth of weapons.

However, one critical area of concern that Seoul has done little to remedy despite knowing about the problem for years is a perpetual shortage of ammunition.

In 2010, Song Young-sun, a former lawmaker from the now-defunct Future Hope Alliance Party, stirred controversy when she revealed that the entire country only had enough ammunition to last two weeks if hostilities broke out on the Korean Peninsula. Specifically, K9 self-propelled howitzers and K239 rocket artillery systems only had enough ammunition for four days. The military blamed budgetary shortfalls for the low ammunition stores.

But the situation had only slightly improved four years later, according to military data. K9 howitzers in 2014 had enough ammunition for five to six days of combat.

They don’t have much more today, a concerning obstacle for South Korea’s armed forces, according to retired ROK general Chun In-bum.

“The South Korean military’s lack of sufficient ammunition is a critical vulnerability,” he told Korea Pro. “Precision bombs are also critically low. So overall, ammunition is not as abundant as a warfighter would like. And this is one of the areas that South Korea must invest in, but we haven’t seen that yet.”

Enlistment ceremony at Nonsan Army Training Center, Jan. 2014 | Image: Republic of Korea Armed Forces via Flickr (CC BY 2.0)

A SHRINKING MILITARY

Except for a few occurrences, South Korea has gradually reduced the size of its standing military. The Ministry of National Defense (MND) has said a smaller fighting force is part of its restructuring plans for the future.

The MND’s stated goal in 2020 was to reduce the number of standing troops from 618,000, the estimated number of active forces in 2017, to 500,000 by 2022. And instead of focusing on maintaining a large military force of conscripted soldiers, the MND plans to rely more on trained military professionals.

Defense planners also hope that this future military force will be more technologically advanced than the labor-intensive force that the ROK military has traditionally been. However, partly due to the unenviable position of dealing with a shrinking and aging population, the ROK government might be overcompensating by prioritizing technology over manpower.

“Even if you have high-tech equipment, you still need people to maintain it,” Chun explained. “And I think many South Koreans don’t realize that a robot that’s 10 times stronger than a person will not be able to do the job of 10 people, as it’ll probably need six people to maintain it.”

For Chun, the promise of future technology doesn’t solve South Korea’s dwindling population problems. 

“The only logical solution is considering the conscription of women into the military. But this has to be an issue that women leaders of Korea have to take on,” he said. “Unfortunately, I don’t see that.”

WAKING UP TO REALITY

The South Korean government’s plans to make the country a top-four arms exporter enjoy bipartisan support, meaning President Yoon may more easily pass legislation through the Democrat-controlled National Assembly that further enhances the ROK defense industry over the coming years. 

South Korean arms manufacturers must export the kinds of armaments that their international clients demand. That means that domestic manufacturers will focus more on producing big-ticket items like K2 tanks, K9 howitzers and someday KF-21 fighter jets than on manufacturing small arms ammunition and artillery rounds.

The MND’s continued policy of reducing the overall size of the military also means that the South Korean armed forces could be alarmingly understaffed in a generation or two. Without significant reforms that could potentially require unpopular political decisions, such as conscripting women or doing away with conscription entirely, South Korea might be inadvertently sabotaging its national interests.

The ROK military is right to be proud of its many achievements over the years. It went from being a country that was wholly dependent on the U.S. for its national defense to developing its own submarine-launched ballistic missile. However, there are critical vulnerabilities that both civilian and military leaders have allowed to fester.

Edited by Arius Derr