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Analysis The US-South Korea alliance avoided rupture but lost its old buffers in 2025With North Korea receding, USFK ambiguity, investment pressure and routine policy choices now shape alliance credibility The defining feature of the U.S.-ROK alliance in 2025 was the emergence of a continuous alignment test in which military posture, economic policy, regulation and industrial cooperation were increasingly evaluated as indicators of strategic reliability rather than treated as separable domains. The alliance did not fracture, but it also did not return to a familiar reassurance-driven equilibrium. Instead, it operated under persistent scrutiny, with routine decisions carrying outsized interpretive weight and fewer buffers available to absorb disagreement. This shift did not stem from a single policy reversal or a newly-declared threat. North Korea remained a standing concern, but it no © Korea Risk Group. All rights reserved. |





