South Korea’s rapid rise as a global arms exporter is colliding with Europe’s protectionist turn, strategic mistrust and questions over its stance on Ukraine, exposing the political limits of a success built on speed and price rather than trust.

After two years of extraordinary expansion fueled by the war in Ukraine, Seoul is discovering that market share alone cannot guarantee access to Europe’s increasingly politicized defense environment. Its bid to become the world’s fourth-largest arms exporter by 2030 now depends on whether it can align economic ambition with the region’s security priorities.

A SURGE BUILT ON DEMAND

The war in