South Korea’s fractured conservative bloc is rapidly undermining its own chances of mounting a serious challenge to Democratic Party (DP) frontrunner Lee Jae-myung, with just three days left before the May 11 candidate registration deadline.

What was once envisioned as a tactical merger between People Power Party (PPP) nominee and former labor minister Kim Moon-soo and independent candidate and former Acting President Han Duck-soo has devolved into a public power struggle, with internal discord threatening to derail the formation of a unified conservative ticket.

Two rounds of talks between Kim and Han collapsed this week, with Kim accusing PPP leaders of attempting to remove him in favor of Han. Kim has publicly refused to participate in what he describes as a party-engineered “roadmap” for unity.

PPP officials counter that Kim had pledged to support a unified conservative candidacy as part of his nomination and argue that his resistance is damaging the party’s credibility. In response, the PPP has launched a two-day preference poll comparing Kim and Han, with party insiders openly suggesting that Kim could be replaced altogether.

POLLING SHOWS OPENINGS

While Lee Jae-myung’s lead in national polls has remained unchanged over the weeks, recent surveys have shown a significant margin of undecided voters, indicating potential room for conservatives to gain more ground.

Recent surveys highlight that conservative unity remains the only viable path to competitiveness.

A National Barometer Survey (NBS) poll released Thursday showed Lee leading with 43%, followed by Han with 23%, Kim with 12% and Reform Party candidate Lee Jun-seok with 5%. Meanwhile, 15% of respondents said they were undecided or supported no one. A Realmeter poll found a similar lead for Lee at 46.6%, with Han at 27.8% and Kim at 7.5%, and 18.1% of respondents undecided.

In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup excluding Kim, Han’s support rose to 34.3% in both surveys, narrowing the gap with Lee to roughly 10 percentage points. These numbers indicate that Kim’s withdrawal and consolidation behind Han could significantly improve the conservative bloc’s position, particularly among undecided voters and those seeking regime continuity.

Notably, both surveys were conducted before any formal merger, suggesting further gains are possible if the conservative ticket is unified and message discipline is restored.

Then-Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung enjoys a snack, Aug. 17, 2024 | Image: Lee Jae-myung via Facebook

SHIFTING YOUTH AND REGIONAL VOTES

Conservative strategists are paying close attention to voters in their 20s and 30s, a demographic that proved decisive in the 2022 presidential election. In that contest, former President Yoon Suk-yeol defeated Lee Jae-myung by just 0.78 percentage points, with younger voters in swing regions tipping the balance.

Polling now shows movement among this same cohort.

According to Realmeter, support for regime continuation among voters in their 20s rose by five points to 45.9%. Overall, the share of voters backing continuity rather than change increased by 15.6 percentage points to 43.3%. Meanwhile, support for regime change fell by 16.6 percentage points to 51.0%.

These shifts are occurring even as support among voters in their 40s and 50s remains relatively stable, favoring regime change, and older voters in their 60s and 70s continue to support continuity.

Swing regions are also showing signs of volatility. Realmeter found that support for regime continuation rose by 7 points in Seoul to 43.2% and by 13.2 points in the Chungcheong provinces to 50.1%.

These are critical bellwether areas that often determine the outcome of close races. Gains in these regions could provide Han with the foundation needed to close the remaining polling gap, but only if conservative forces present a united front.

ELECTORATE STILL FLUID

Despite Lee’s lead, the race remains fluid. The NBS survey found that 8 in 10 voters are firmly committed to casting a ballot, but 22% said they are open to changing their candidate choice. This is especially important given that a significant portion of the electorate remains disengaged from the current political offerings, with many expressing dissatisfaction with both leading contenders.

“This election, just like the last one, will come down to a 1 to 2 percentage point margin,” political commentator Eom Kyung-young told Korea Pro. “The 20 to 30 age cohort is still fluid, and it’s that group — not the traditional support base — who will determine the result,” he said.

Eom’s point underscores the danger of inaction for conservatives. Every day spent negotiating or airing grievances in public is a day lost in consolidating support among persuadable voters. While Kim has limited national traction, his base represents a potential vote pool that could help push Han into the low 40s — the threshold likely needed for a conservative victory in a high-turnout race.

Conservative voters attend a People Power Party rally ahead of the April 2024 general election, April 10, 2024 | Image: People Power Party

LEADERSHIP AND GOVERNANCE FRAMING

The broader narrative of this election has shifted from party loyalty or economic policy and is now framed around building effective leadership and stability, according to Eom, as the nation’s series of political stand-offs and legal controversies have undermined the rule-of-law and effective governance.

The fallout from Yoon’s impeachment and his martial law declaration has eroded public confidence in the conservative camp’s ability to lead. Simultaneously, Lee Jae-myung’s ongoing criminal trials and confrontational leadership style have raised doubts about his fitness for office.

Han Duck-soo has sought to position himself as a centrist alternative capable of restoring trust in state institutions. He has pledged to deliver institutional reform for effective governance and constitutional revision to reduce presidential authority.

In recent weeks, Han has opened dialogue with key political figures, including former Prime Minister Lee Nak-yon — a DP defector — who has endorsed constitutional change and signaled interest in joining a broader coalition under Han’s leadership.

“As presidential elections see a high turnout — around 77% in the last race — the movement of the minority could prove decisive. The shifts in the 20 to 30 age cohort mirror the portion of the electorate Han needs to reach,” Eom said.

OUTLOOK

The conservative bloc faces a narrowing window to unify behind a single candidate and capitalize on emerging shifts in public sentiment. While Han remains behind in the polls, the data suggests a consolidation path exists, particularly if Kim Moon-soo is removed from contention and his supporters migrate to Han.

Failure to act decisively risks locking in defeat. The polling gap with Lee Jae-myung may be narrowing, but disarray within the conservative camp is preventing any momentum from taking hold. Without unity, message coherence, and a forward-looking leadership vision, conservatives may again lose an election that structural factors suggest should be more competitive than initially expected.

Edited by John Lee