South Korea’s defense export model is increasingly reliant on state-backed financing to sustain deals with financially constrained and strategically hedging partners, raising questions about whether export growth is being achieved through risk transfer rather than durable demand.

Uncertainty over negotiations with Indonesia for the purchase of 16 KF-21 fighter jets has brought this dynamic into focus, exposing tensions between Seoul’s export ambitions and the financial and contractual realities of working with partners whose commitments remain ambiguous.

As both a co-developerand prospective first export customer, Indonesia occupies a pivotal role in validating the KF-21’s credibility in global markets. That position