South Korea’s exports are expected to decline 3 to 4% in the third quarter from a year earlier to around $167 billion, as U.S. tariffs begin to weigh and the boost from advance inventory orders fades, the state-run Export-Import Bank of Korea (Korea Eximbank) said Monday. The bank’s overseas economic research institute said the forecast incorporates the July 31 agreement with Washington that lowered planned U.S. import tariffs on most South Korean goods from 25% to 15%, bringing Korean exporters into parity with Japanese and European competitors.

The bank’s Export Leading Index rose to 127.8 in Q3, up 3.6 points