A new Realmeter poll has thrust Acting President Han Duck-soo into the center of South Korea’s presidential race — even as he resists calls to run. In his first-ever inclusion as a potential candidate, Han now ranks as the second-most competitive conservative challenger to Democratic Party (DP) frontrunner Lee Jae-myung.

His pledge on Monday to “fulfill the final mission entrusted to [him]” indicates that he will not enter the race — but a growing number of ruling People Power Party (PPP) lawmakers, facing collapsing poll numbers and a weak bench, may not give him the choice.

Han, a Harvard-trained economist and career bureaucrat who has served under both liberal and conservative governments, stepped in as acting president after the Constitutional Court removed Yoon Suk-yeol from office in December.

His technocratic demeanor and reputation for calm under pressure have made him a stabilizing figure in the wake of political turmoil. Within hours of Yoon’s removal, Han convened an emergency Cabinet meeting, chaired a National Security Council session and addressed the nation to reassure the public.

Despite his own impeachment in late December, Han was reinstated in March and has since returned to managing state affairs. Not long after his reinstatement, he approved one DP-backed nominee and two conservative picks to the Constitutional Court, moves that simultaneously restored the nine-member bench and triggered political controversy.

His role as caretaker has earned him praise from the conservative bloc while drawing progressive ire, fueling questions about whether he might step into a more partisan role.

People Power Party interim leader Kwon Young-se (right) welcomes former labor minister Kim Moon-soo (left) as the latter joins the party to run for the party’s primary for the upcoming snap presidential election, April 10, 2025 | Image: People Power Party

THE POLL THAT CHANGED THINGS

Monday’s Realmeter poll placed Han Duck-soo at 8.6% support among all voters, placing him third overall behind DP leader Lee Jae-myung (48.8%) and former labor minister Kim Moon-soo (10.9%). Among PPP supporters, Han polled at 21.6%, second only to Kim. He also narrowly edged out Kim among independent voters.

In a hypothetical head-to-head contest against Lee, Han received 27.6% to Lee’s 54.2% — the narrowest gap among all major conservative contenders, including former PPP leader Han Dong-hoon, former Daegu Mayor Hong Jun-pyo and Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon.

The same poll showed support for the ruling PPP falling to 33.1%, while backing for the DP rose to 46.7%, resulting in a 13.6-point gap between the two parties.

Meanwhile, 58.7% of respondents said they would prefer a transfer of power to the opposition, compared to 35.3% who want the PPP to remain in government. This 23.4-point gap marks the seventh consecutive week the opposition has held a statistically significant lead on the question of regime change.

In nearly every region and demographic outside of the traditional conservative stronghold of Daegu-North Gyeongsang, sentiment favored a change in government.

With polls consistently showing Lee Jae-myung in the lead, and concerns growing that labor minister Kim Moon-soo might not fare well against Lee in the general election, given his controversial record and polarizing public image, PPP members are increasingly viewing Han as the most viable alternative — one they could plausibly rally behind to avert a blowout loss.

CONSERVATIVE PANIC MODE

Beyond collapsing poll numbers, the PPP remains fractured, with no single candidate commanding enough support to match Lee Jae-myung. Kim Moon-soo, despite his frontrunner status within the party, lost 5.4 percentage points in the latest Realmeter survey.

Meanwhile, Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon abruptly dropped out of the race on Sunday.

PPP members have reportedly drafted public endorsements and press statements urging Han to enter the race. Around 50 lawmakers were reportedly preparing to hold a press conference last week to call for his candidacy before party leadership asked them to stand down.

Even former U.S. President Donald Trump — according to leaked accounts — asked Han during last week’s phone call whether he planned to run. Han allegedly responded that he was considering it but had “not decided anything.”

For the PPP, the risk of entering the June 3 presidential election without a broadly palatable, high-competence candidate is growing. The party’s existing lineup has not demonstrated the ability to unify moderates or arrest its poll slide. In this context, Han’s image as a stabilizing force, backed by real electoral support, is growing more appealing by the day.

Then-main opposition Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung greets vendors in Damyang Market in South Jeolla Province, March 22, 2025 | Image: Democratic Party of Korea

COALITION OR COLLAPSE?

As the country’s prime minister and acting president, Han is not a PPP member. Moreover, the PPP will announce the contenders who may advance to the party’s first primary round on Wednesday. To qualify, Han would have to resign from the acting presidency and register for the primary election by Tuesday.

Given the short time that he has left to register with the party, Han is unlikely to participate in its official primary process. Thus, if he chooses to run for the presidency, he will likely do so as an independent. This possibility has led to renewed talk of a unity candidate scenario in which the PPP withdraws other contenders and backs Han as an independent or coalition-backed figure.

A precedent exists: In 2002, then-progressive candidate Roh Moo-hyun and independent Chung Mong-jun joined forces just 24 days before the vote. A similar last-minute alliance may be the only path forward for conservatives seeking to consolidate their fragmented support base.

At the same time, Han’s recent moves suggest careful timing, if not outright calculation.

His nomination of Ma Eun-hyuk — the DP’s pick for the Constitutional Court — restored the bench’s full composition. He also nominated two conservatives to the court in anticipation of two justices’ terms ending this week, which forced the DP to contradict its earlier position in which claimed that an acting president is obligated to fill judicial vacancies.

His phone call with Trump came just 16 hours before new tariffs were due to take effect. When the U.S. postponed the measures, it gave Han an opportunity to highlight his diplomatic value without campaigning overtly.

Prime Minister Han Duck-soo meets with Chinese leader Xi Jinping during the former’s visit to China to attend the opening ceremony of the Hangzhou Asian Games, Sept. 23, 2023 | Image: ROK Prime Minister’s Office

WHY IT MATTERS

Whether Han runs or not, his posture now shapes the strategic decisions of every major conservative player. His polling numbers give him leverage. His technocratic record gives him credibility. And his refusal to declare his intention to run — even amid mounting pressure — has elevated him from administrator to political variable.

The PPP faces a narrowing window to reorganize. With support declining and voter appetite for regime change intensifying, the party’s leadership may see no choice but to try to unify behind Han. If he declines, the June 3 election could devolve into a fragmented race with little chance of stopping Lee Jae-myung.

If he enters, however, Han could upend the contest. He would not enter as a career politician or as a symbol of continuity, but as a crisis-era steward suddenly positioned to lead a realignment. 

With the PPP under pressure to consolidate and polling trends rapidly shifting, Han’s next decision could prove pivotal for the upcoming presidential election.

Edited by John Lee