Lee Jae-myung’s legal troubles could upend South Korea’s main opposition Democratic Party (DP) race, raising the prospect of an alternative progressive candidate if he is barred from running. Although Lee leads progressive presidential polls by a wide margin, his first-trial conviction for election law violations and pending Supreme Court ruling create uncertainty.

The Constitutional Court’s upcoming impeachment verdict on President Yoon Suk-yeol adds further volatility. As it is still unclear when the court will rule on Yoon’s impeachment, it becomes crucial to examine DP contenders who may emerge if Lee is disqualified.