South Korea’s birthrate has rebounded after a prolonged decline, with the total fertility rate rising to 0.76 in the third quarter — the first increase in the birthrate since 2015. According to Statistics Korea (KOSTAT) on Wednesday, the number of births in Q3 increased by 8.0% year-on-year to 61,288, the largest quarterly gain since late 2012. This is also the second consecutive quarter of growth following a 34-quarter streak of declines.

The rising birth number has also slightly pushed up the total fertility rate, a key metric that measures the average number of children a woman is expected to have. The Q3 rate of 0.76 represents a 0.05 point increase from a year earlier, the first rebound since 2015 when the rate was 1.15. This quarter’s birthrate was led by women in their early 30s.

WHY IT MATTERS

The recovery in birth rate is a positive development for South Korea, which faces one of the lowest fertility rates in the world. If current trends persist, annual births could increase for the first time in nine years, and the full-year 2024 fertility rate may surpass government projections.

The uptick most likely relates to accumulated demand for marriages delayed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Government officials have also suggested that increased support for family formation under the Yoon Suk-yeol administration may have contributed. A KOSTAT official on Wednesday pointed to how changing social attitudes among young people, who are more open to having children outside of marriage, may have also played a role.

However, sustaining this momentum will be a significant challenge. Even with the recent increase, South Korea’s fertility rate remains far below the replacement level of 2.1 needed to sustain the population and lags significantly behind other OECD nations. Experts previously told Korea Pro that addressing the deep-seated social and structural factors behind the low birth rate will require diverse measures — not just financial incentives, but also reforms to promote young parents’ work-life balance and career pathway guarantees, enhance childcare support and foster more diverse family structures.