The Seoul Central District Court’s conviction of opposition leader Lee Jae-myung for election law violations could reshape South Korea’s political landscape. The ruling, if upheld, may upend Lee’s political career and force the Democratic Party (DP) to reassess its leadership as it grapples with internal divisions and a deeply polarized electorate.

Lee’s conviction highlights the contentious intersection of law and politics in South Korea, with both his supporters and critics framing the case as a pivotal moment for the country’s democracy. While the DP rallies around its embattled leader, questions about leadership succession and public trust in the judiciary loom large.

COURT VERDICT AND CHARGES

The Seoul Central District Court convicted Lee Jae-myung on two counts of disseminating false information during his 2022 presidential campaign on Friday. Lee received a one-year prison sentence, suspended for two years, under Article 250 of the Public Official Election Act.

The law mandates prison terms of up to five years or fines up to $35,890 (50 million won) for those found guilty of spreading false information to gain electoral advantage.

The court ruled that Lee falsely claimed in a Dec. 2021 TV interview that he did not know Kim Moon-ki, a senior development official involved in the controversial Daejang-dong land project. Kim was later found dead in his office amid an investigation into alleged favoritism during Lee’s tenure as Seongnam mayor.

The court also found that Lee falsely stated in an Oct. 2021 parliamentary session that the rezoning of Baekhyeon-dong in Seongnam was coerced by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport.

“The dissemination of false information during the election process can distort and damage the will of the people,” the court said, emphasizing that Lee’s televised statements amplified their impact during a critical election period.

Lee has denied any wrongdoing and vowed to appeal. “This ruling will be recorded in South Korea’s modern history,” he said, expressing confidence in “justice and common sense” prevailing in higher courts.

Prosecutors had previously requested a two-year prison sentence.

Main opposition Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung (center) and other DP lawmakers gather at the National Assembly, May 30, 2024 | Image: Democratic Party of Korea

LEGAL AND POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS

If Lee’s conviction is upheld, the ramifications could be far-reaching. Under Article 18 of the Public Official Election Act, a fine exceeding $750 (1 million won) automatically strips offenders of their elected positions and bars them from public office for five years. This would not only end Lee’s parliamentary career but also disqualify him from running in the 2027 presidential election.

Shin Yul, a political science professor at Myongji University, highlighted the high stakes of the appeals process. “Unless there’s a complete acquittal in the appeals trial, it’s almost certain that the loss of eligibility for public office will be finalized,” he said.

He predicted the legal process, following South Korea’s “6-3-3 principle (six months for the first trial, three months for appeals and three months for the Supreme Court),” could conclude by mid-2025, potentially reshaping the DP ahead of the next presidential election.

Beyond the election law case, Lee faces additional legal battles, including allegations of perjury, bribery and mismanagement tied to major development projects. The first ruling in his perjury trial is expected on Nov. 25.

If these cases also result in convictions, they could compound the DP’s challenges, both legally and financially. A finalized conviction would require the DP to repay about $32 million (43.1 billion won) in campaign subsidies from the 2022 presidential election and forfeit Lee’s $220,000 (300 million won) candidate deposit.

Left: Lee Jae-myung speaks during a DP-led rally on Nov. 16, 2024 in central Seoul; Right: Lee and DP lawmakers protest against the Yoon administration at a rally on Nov. 9, 2024 | Images: Democratic Party of Korea, edited by Korea Pro

DEMOCRATIC PARTY IN TURMOIL

The DP has closed ranks around Lee, framing his legal troubles as politically motivated persecution. During a large protest a day after Lee’s conviction, DP lawmakers and supporters accused the ruling People Power Party (PPP) and the judiciary of undermining democracy. 

“Lee Jae-myung will not die, democracy will not die and the future of this country will not die,” Lee told protesters. DP floor leader Park Chan-dae denounced the court’s decision as an “insane verdict by an insane government,” accusing the Yoon administration of targeting Lee to deflect from its own scandals.

However, Shin of Myongji University suggested that unless Lee secures an acquittal, the party will be forced to seek new leadership. This could trigger internal divisions, as Lee maintains a strong base of loyalists within the DP.

Potential successors include Gyeonggi Governor Kim Dong-yeon, former Prime Minister Kim Bu-gyeom and former South Gyeongsang Province Governor Kim Kyung-soo. Analysts have also pointed to six-term lawmaker Choo Mi-ae and DP lawmakers Kim Min-seok and Jung Chung-rae as possible contenders.

However, Shin expressed skepticism about the DP’s ability to identify a viable alternative, given Lee’s enduring influence.

Opinion polls indicate that much of the South Korean public identifies Lee as the main opposition leader and a likely contender for the presidency in 2027. Thus, experts have noted that even if Lee overcomes his numerous legal challenges, the political impact will persist.

DP lawmakers pay their respects to Korea’s independence activists at Hyochang Park, Seoul on Aug. 15, 2024 | Image: Democratic Party of Korea

RULING PARTY’S RESPONSE

The PPP has emphasized the importance of expediting Lee’s legal cases. For instance, PPP Chairman Han Dong-hoon announced the formation of a “Trial Delay Prevention Task Force” to monitor the judicial process. “It is crucial to ensure fairness and expediency in these trials,” Han said, emphasizing that the public deserves timely resolutions.

While the PPP views Lee’s legal troubles as an opportunity to weaken the opposition, it faces its own challenges. President Yoon Suk-yeol’s approval ratings remain at historic lows, and the party is struggling to capitalize on the DP’s turmoil. A Realmeter poll conducted on Monday showed DP support at 47.5%, far ahead of the PPP’s 31.6%. 

“Even if the DP’s ratings slip, it doesn’t mean the PPP or Yoon will benefit,” said Shin. “Both Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Suk-yeol are unpopular, and the public is disillusioned with both sides.”

JUDICIAL AND PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS

The case has further polarized public opinion, with critics accusing the judiciary of acting as a political tool. Cho Jin-man, a professor at Duksung Women’s University, emphasized that such perceptions erode trust in democratic institutions.

“Large swathes of the public perceive the judiciary and the prosecution as political actors, and this perception contributes to the ongoing disputes,” he said.

Critics of the Yoon administration argue that its own scandals undermine its credibility in pursuing justice. Allegations surrounding first lady Kim Keon-hee and other high-profile controversies have fueled accusations of selective prosecution, deepening public cynicism.

Left: Lee Jae-myung at a rally against the Yoon administration on Nov. 2 2024 near Seoul Station; Right: President Yoon Suk-yeol speaks during the ruling People Power Party’s National Convention in March 2023 | Images: Democratic Party of Korea, ROK Presidential Office, edited by Korea Pro

A POLARIZED FUTURE

Looking ahead, Lee’s appeals process will remain a focal point of South Korean politics. Each ruling is likely to fuel further conflict between the DP and PPP, amplifying the country’s political polarization. 

For the DP, the challenge lies in balancing its defense of Lee with the need to address succession planning and maintain public trust. For the PPP, the task is to rebuild its credibility amid low approval ratings and avoid perceptions of exploiting Lee’s legal troubles for political gain.

Broader questions about the intersection of politics and the judiciary will likely dominate public discourse, shaping the political narrative as South Korea approaches the 2027 presidential election. 

Both major parties face a long road to regaining the public’s trust in an era of deepening political and social divisions.

Edited by John Lee