South Korea condemned on Thursday the comprehensive strategic partnership treaty between Russia and North Korea, which would compel the two countries to provide military and other assistance if either party faces invasion from a third country. ROK National Security Director Chang Ho-jin notably stated that South Korea will review its stance on providing military support to Ukraine. Additionally, he said that Seoul has designated independent sanctions for four ships, five entities and eight individuals from Russia, North Korea and third countries involved in weapons and oil transfers between Russia and North Korea.

Chang stated that Seoul plans to strengthen the U.S.-ROK alliance’s extended deterrence and the U.S.-ROK-Japan trilateral security cooperation to counter North Korea’s nuclear and missile capabilities. Additionally, South Korea will designate 243 additional items to the existing 1,159 under export controls to Russia, totaling 1,402 items subject to sanctions. 

Why It Matters

South Korea has refrained from providing direct lethal military aid to Ukraine due to its Foreign Trade Act, maintaining a policy of only offering humanitarian assistance. However, Seoul is likely considering a change in its stance due to the growing security threats posed by the strengthening partnership between Russia and North Korea.

A senior official from the ROK Presidential Office did not provide specifics on the potential weapons support, telling reporters that there are various options and categories beyond lethal and non-lethal weapons. The official further stated that Moscow will “find out gradually” the specifics of how Seoul will proceed. This ambiguity may be a strategic move by Seoul to keep Russia guessing and apply pressure.

If South Korea decides to provide lethal weapons to Ukraine, it will mark a significant shift in its approach and will likely have far-reaching implications for its international relationships. While the move would demonstrate Seoul’s commitment to shared values and strengthen ties with the U.S. and its NATO partners, Moscow will likely view South Korea’s provision of lethal weapons to Ukraine as a provocative act, potentially leading to a further deterioration of bilateral relations.

Russia may retaliate by restricting critical energy exports and exploiting the “military assistance” clause in its recently signed comprehensive strategic partnership with North Korea, justifying increased cooperation and support for Pyongyang’s military capabilities. Russia may also offer more robust diplomatic support to North Korea, using its veto power in the U.N. Security Council to block resolutions aimed at imposing sanctions or condemning Pyongyang’s actions.

Domestically, the Yoon administration will likely face intense pressure from opposition parties to adhere to the Foreign Trade Act, potentially leading to political gridlock and public backlash. Main opposition Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung stated in April 2023 that he would pursue legislation that would require the president to obtain the National Assembly’s consent before providing arms to conflict areas, including Ukraine.