Russian leader Vladimir Putin will make his first visit to North Korea in 24 years on Tuesday, a visit that will likely look to further develop their increasing military cooperation since the start of the war in Ukraine.

While the potential for enhanced collaboration between the two nations poses risks to South Korea’s national security, it also presents opportunities for Seoul to respond strategically and adapt its approach to the changing geopolitical dynamics in the region.

EVOLVING GEOPOLITICAL LANDSCAPE

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un invited Putin to visit Pyongyang during their meeting at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in Russia in Sept. 2023, laying the foundation for the upcoming visit.

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the two nations have strengthened their military cooperation, with North Korea providing critical support to Moscow. According to South Korean military estimates, North Korea has provided nearly half of Russia’s artillery advantage over Ukraine this year, as well as ballistic missiles.

In return, North Korea will likely expect Russian know-how to advance its drones and satellite and engine components, which may enhance Pyongyang’s weapons programs. In an interview with Bloomberg News, South Korean defense minister Shin Won-sik said the DPRK used Russia’s latest space rocket technology in its most recent attempt to put a military spy satellite in space last month.

Further, Russia and North Korea share a common view of the U.S. as a threat to their respective regimes. This perception has led to increased alignment between the two nations, with Russia offering diplomatic support to North Korea and both countries engaging in provocative actions against the U.S. and its allies.

South Korea, meanwhile, has sought to balance its relationships with the U.S., China and Russia. Seoul has joined U.S.-led sanctions against Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine but has refrained from directly supplying weapons to Kyiv.

Russian leader Vladimir Putin greets North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at the Vostochny Cosmodrome space launch facility, Sept. 14, 2023 | Image: Rodong Sinmun

THREATS TO SOUTH KOREA

Putin’s visit to North Korea raises several significant risks for South Korea’s security. First, the potential for enhanced military cooperation between North Korea and Russia may lead to a more formidable and unpredictable threat on the Korean Peninsula.

If Russia provides advanced military technology to North Korea, such as advanced satellite technology, it will make it more difficult for South Korea to defend itself against potential aggression.

Second, North Korea, emboldened by Russian support, may increase military activity and threats against the South. With Russia’s backing, North Korea may feel more confident in escalating these provocations along with aggressive maritime moves, which will likely raise the risk of military confrontation.

Third, the growing alignment between North Korea and Russia will challenge South Korea’s efforts to gain international support against Pyongyang’s provocations. As a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council, Russia has the power to veto or obstruct resolutions that seek to impose sanctions or penalties on North Korea for its nuclear and missile programs.

This will limit the effectiveness of international pressure on Pyongyang and make it more difficult for South Korea to rally global support for its security concerns.

STRATEGIC RESPONSES AND OPPORTUNITIES

Despite the risks posed by Putin’s visit and the growing North Korea-Russia partnership, South Korea also has several opportunities to respond strategically and safeguard its security interests.

First, South Korea can focus on strengthening its alliance with the U.S. and enhancing bilateral security cooperation. The U.S.-ROK alliance remains the cornerstone of South Korea’s defense strategy, and closer coordination between the two countries can help deter potential aggression from the DPRK and its partners.

Second, South Korea can seek to enhance trilateral security cooperation with the U.S. and Japan. The three countries share common security concerns regarding North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs, and a more integrated approach may help counter the growing threat posed by the North Korea-Russia partnership.

Trilateral cooperation will likely include coordinated military drills such as the upcoming Freedom Edge exercise, information sharing and the development of a joint strategy for addressing regional security challenges.

Third, South Korea can engage in diplomatic efforts with China to manage its relations with Russia and prevent further escalation of tensions.

South Korean and Chinese foreign and defense ministry officials will hold “two plus two” talks on Tuesday, which Seoul will be able to use to its advantage. Beijing is likely wary of Moscow’s growing influence on North Korea, as rising inter-Korean tensions will strengthen the U.S.-ROK-Japan trilateral partnership.

Although Seoul and Beijing have their own disagreements, engaging with China may cause tensions between North Korea, Russia and China.

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol meets with U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at Camp David, Aug. 19, 2023 | Image: White House

SOUTH KOREA’S PROBABLE COURSE

Given the risks posed by Putin’s visit and the growing North Korea-Russia partnership, South Korea will likely respond by combining military measures, diplomatic efforts and strategic coordination with its partners.

One of the most immediate actions South Korea may take is resuming joint military drills with the U.S. near the border if Putin’s visit results in increased military cooperation between the two countries. South Korea suspended an inter-Korean military agreement earlier this month and also hinted at the possibility of taking “unendurable measures” in response to North Korea’s balloon provocations.

Additionally, South Korea will seek to enhance the scale and frequency of joint military drills with the U.S. and Japan to bolster its missile defense capabilities and strengthen intelligence sharing with the two countries to better monitor and respond to potential threats.

On the diplomatic front, South Korea will likely use potential military aid to Ukraine to prevent Russia from providing North Korea with more robust military aid or a mutual defense treaty.

Putin expressed appreciation earlier this month that South Korea has not directly supplied weapons to Ukraine — likely a veiled threat to Seoul that providing Kyiv with military assistance may result in Russian military assistance for Pyongyang. However, that threat cuts both ways.

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol has described Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as “illegal” and also hinted last year that South Korea could provide direct military aid to Ukraine if “any large-scale attack on civilians” were to take place.

While Yoon softened his tone toward Russia in his press conference in May, emphasizing the need to manage relations with Russia on a case-by-case basis, he could revert to harsher rhetoric and increase cooperation with NATO partners.

GOING FORWARD

While the prospects of a formal alliance between North Korea and Russia remain low, the growing closeness between Pyongyang and Moscow has significant implications for the region.

China, as North Korea’s largest trading partner and economic benefactor, will likely use its economic influence to pressure Pyongyang from escalating tensions too far.

Beijing has a vested interest in maintaining stability on the Korean Peninsula and may seek to curb any actions by North Korea that could lead to a more significant conflict or increased U.S. military presence in the region.

The growing North Korea-Russia partnership will compel the Yoon administration to continue emphasizing increased trilateral cooperation with the U.S. and Japan to counter the potential threats posed by North Korea and Russia.

While Russia’s evolving role in the Korean Peninsula may be detrimental to South Korea’s national interests, it is not without tools of its own.

Edited by Alannah Hill