Analysis South Korea’s overconfidence adds salt to the wound of failed World Expo bidBusan suffered landslide defeat for 2030 expo, raising questions about ROK’s diplomatic prowess and strategic planning John LeeNovember 29, 2023 South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol with first lady Kim Keon-hee at the 2030 World Expo Korea reception on Jun. 21, 2023 | Image: ROK Presidential Office South Korea’s grand bid to play host to the 2030 World Expo ended in surprise fashion — and great disappointment — on Tuesday, as the country’s southern port city of Busan failed to secure the hosting rights. The landslide defeat to Riyadh is a significant diplomatic setback for South Korea, given the country’s substantial investment in the bid and confident predictions of a close contest by ROK officials. The failure raises questions about South Korea’s overweening confidence in its cultural exports and its ability to sell an attractive vision of itself on the global stage, and more immediately for President Yoon Suk-yeol, it could trigger a drop in public trust in his leadership as key parliamentary elections draw near. NATIONAL AMBITIONS THWARTED The South Korean government placed substantial support behind Busan’s bid, reflecting its ambition to use the World Expo to project the country as a leader in global issues and innovation. These efforts included extensive diplomatic outreach in various international forums, as well as investments of significant resources in promotional campaigns by the government and private entities aimed at attracting international support and highlighting Busan’s readiness to host the event. Now, South Korea’s dramatic failure raises questions about the effectiveness of the government’s strategies and its understanding of the dynamics at play. The voting outcome for the 2030 World Expo hosting rights delivered a stark reality check. In a decisive victory, Riyadh received 119 votes to Busan’s 29 in the first round of voting. Rome received 17 votes. However, prior to the results being announced, South Korean officials remained publicly confident about their chances of winning the bid. Statements from the ROK Ministry of Foreign Affairs and other government representatives expressed a belief in a close contest, suggesting that Busan was a strong contender in the race. The gap between the confident predictions of a tight race and the actual voting outcome was significant. South Korean officials, who had vigorously campaigned for Busan and publicly expressed optimism about their chances, find themselves grappling with the reality of a major diplomatic and strategic miscalculation. ROK media quickly tried to make sense of the failure, with commentaries and editorials claiming South Korea could not overcome Saudi “oil money.” ASPIRATIONS AND REALITY Financially, South Korea’s commitment to the Busan bid was substantial, with both the government and major private sector conglomerates pouring resources into the campaign. Reports indicated that the Korean Chamber of Commerce and Industry collected more than $24 million (30 billion won) from its top 10 member companies as special membership fees to bolster the bid’s promotional activities and enhance diplomatic efforts to sway Bureau International des Expositions (BIE) member states to vote for Busan. Diplomatically, South Korea engaged in a global lobbying effort. High-level officials, including Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, Foreign Minister Park Jin and others, were actively involved in reaching out to BIE member states. However, this diplomatic push seemed to have underestimated Riyadh’s sway and influence. On the promotional front, Busan’s campaign highlighted South Korea’s rapid development and technological prowess. South Korea’s final presentation to the BIE included speeches from former U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and notable celebrities, focusing on how Busan, representative of South Korea’s rapid economic growth after the Korean War with the help of international aid, intends to give back to the international community. One expert described the campaign as “tone-deaf.” “It’s hard to shake the feeling that the presentation for the Riyadh bid was focused on addressing issues that are relevant to the international community, while our [South Korea’s] presentation focused too much on talking about ourselves,” the attorney Jumin Lee told Korea Pro. “Korean soft power in 2023 is very real, but the constant need to brag about our accomplishments rather than addressing the interests and concerns of our peers exposes a level of insecurity that is unbecoming of a nation of this stature,” Lee added. K-LOSS Other experts pointed out that South Korea’s promotional endeavors lacked a coherent vision. “Even though we lost in the bidding process, I believe [the Expo] could have been an opportunity to promote a more coherent vision for Korea that could have made international viewers marvel at the things that South Korea can achieve,” Choi Eun-kyung, a professor of Political Economy of Communications at Hanshin University, told Korea Pro. “But South Korea’s promotion [strategy] was to put ‘K’ in front of everything — K-content, K-this, K-that. There must have been a way to bring in experts to create a more differentiated vision, but I don’t think that was done,” Choi said. “It seems like the Korean government has fallen into this pattern of thinking K-pop and other Korean cultural products can solve everything,” Benjamin A. Engel, a research professor at Seoul National University, told Korea Pro, echoing Choi. “There doesn’t seem to be much thought into national branding beyond using a K-pop star.” POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS The unsuccessful bid to host the 2030 World Expo has important implications for South Korea in terms of its international relations and domestic political landscape. Internationally, the failed bid raises questions about South Korea’s influence and efficacy in global diplomacy. Considering the ROK’s heavy reliance on its celebrities to act as ambassadors, the inability to secure enough support for Busan suggests a gap between South Korean officials’ perception of the influence they wield and the actual soft power the country possesses. Domestically, the outcome of the Expo bid could have tangible repercussions for the Yoon Suk-yeol administration. The high-profile nature of the failed bid, coupled with the government’s confident public stance, could be construed by political opponents and the public as indicative of the administration’s ineffective international strategy and lack of foresight. In addition, the National Assembly will most likely scrutinize the funds that the Yoon administration allocated to campaigning for Busan as the country’s two major parties enter into negotiations over next year’s budget in December. The South Korean government this week told local media that Yoon, senior government officials and business leaders made almost 500 overseas trips to meet around 3,500 foreign leaders and diplomats for the Expo bid. Ironically, the Yoon administration might have reaped little political benefits even if Busan had won the bid to host the event. “The World Expo hasn’t been relevant to the average voter for at least the past few decades, and the only people who seem to care about it are geriatric politicians whose view of the world hasn’t evolved since the 1980s,” attorney Lee told Korea Pro. A June poll of 1,019 South Korean adults showed that 83.4% of Yoon’s supporters and 77% of the ruling People Power Party’s supporters expected a “high likelihood” of victory, in comparison to only 10.5% of those who disapproved of Yoon. Six out of 10 Democratic Party supporters said the ROK would likely fail to secure the rights. “The government invested an absurd amount of political and diplomatic capital into trying to achieve something that was both unlikely and probably wouldn’t have moved the needle even if successful. I think that exposes poor judgment,” Lee said. Losing the bid could weaken the government’s domestic standing. A recent Gallup Korea survey indicates that both those who approve and disapprove of the Yoon administration cited “diplomacy” as one of the top reasons, indicating the South Korean public pays close attention to the topic. Although Yoon on Wednesday delivered a formal speech apologizing for his government’s “wrong predictions,” many senior officials’ remarks about the supposedly close nature of the vote will likely only further erode trust in the government. BUSAN IS READY BY 2035? South Korea’s failed bid to host the 2030 World Expo sets the stage for strategic adjustments in future international engagements, especially with Busan City Mayor Park Heong-joon already floating the idea of the city campaigning to host the next World Expo in 2035. One key lesson is the importance of early and sustained engagement in international bids. South Korea’s relatively late start in the bidding process compared to its competitors may have hindered its ability to build the necessary momentum and support. The bid also spotlights the need for innovative and creative use of resources. While financial investment is crucial, how these resources are utilized can make a significant difference. Another crucial area for adjustment is diplomatic engagement. South Korea’s approach could benefit from a more diversified and inclusive strategy, engaging not just with government entities but also with cultural, academic and business communities worldwide. Following a period of introspection on the failed bid, South Korea will need to recalibrate its international strategy to enhance its role as a significant player in the international community. Jeongmin Kim and Joon Ha Park contributed to this analysis. Edited by Alannah Hill South Korea’s grand bid to play host to the 2030 World Expo ended in surprise fashion — and great disappointment — on Tuesday, as the country’s southern port city of Busan failed to secure the hosting rights. The landslide defeat to Riyadh is a significant diplomatic setback for South Korea, given the country’s substantial investment in the bid and confident predictions of a close contest by ROK officials. Get 30 days
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Analysis South Korea’s overconfidence adds salt to the wound of failed World Expo bidBusan suffered landslide defeat for 2030 expo, raising questions about ROK’s diplomatic prowess and strategic planning South Korea’s grand bid to play host to the 2030 World Expo ended in surprise fashion — and great disappointment — on Tuesday, as the country’s southern port city of Busan failed to secure the hosting rights. The landslide defeat to Riyadh is a significant diplomatic setback for South Korea, given the country’s substantial investment in the bid and confident predictions of a close contest by ROK officials. © Korea Risk Group. All rights reserved. |