South Korea is wrestling with what may be the world’s most daunting demographic challenge. With a rate of aging that outpaces any developed nation and a fertility rate that lags behind all other countries, South Korea could shrink by nearly half its size within the century. These demographic pressures are particularly evident in two key areas: schools and rural communities.

To understand the scale of this shift, one need only look to the past. In 1960, South Korea outstripped every contemporary Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) country in birth rate, boasting a robust average of just over six births per woman. 

Fast forward six decades and this figure is all but a relic of history. By 2022, the fertility rate had plummeted to a startling 0.78. Despite sustained government efforts to reverse this downward spiral, signs indicate this rate will drop even further. 

Last year, South Korea’s population, which peaked at 51.8 million in 2019, began to recede. 

With dwindling student populations and rapidly aging rural constituencies, these sectors are at the forefront of South Korea’s shifting demographic realities. The question for policymakers now is not whether they should respond but how — and with what degree of urgency.

DISAPPEARING SCHOOLS

South Korea is witnessing a rapid contraction in its school-aged population. In 2010, 10 million young South Koreans were of school age. But even then, that figure was a significant drop from the peak of 14.4 million in 1980. 

By 2022, this number dwindled further to 7.4 million. Over a decade, from 2012 to 2022, enrollment in primary and secondary schools fell from 7.38 million to 5.8 million. Given the country’s meager birth rate, a continued decline in these figures seems inevitable.

The declining trend of South Korea’s school-aged population in South Korea from 1980 to 2022, data from Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS) | Image: Korea Pro

Today, it’s not uncommon for schools not to receive a single new student, suggesting widespread closures of primary and secondary schools may be imminent. And this isn’t just in remote areas: A high school in Seoul closed in April due to a lack of students, and it won’t be the last. 

Small private universities in rural areas face an existential crisis. Operating within a hierarchical system that often relegates such institutions to the bottom rung, these schools have been wrestling with a chronic shortage of applicants for over a decade. 

The pool of university-eligible individuals, which stood at approximately 460,000 in 2020, is projected to nosedive to 280,000 by 2040, a decrease of about 40%. As rural institutions have always been relegated to the bottom rung, South Korean universities will likely collapse in the vulnerable provinces before reaching the larger cities.

Unfortunately, these beleaguered universities have few escape routes. Allowing university founders the right to sell their universities might provide a lifeline, but such transactions are currently illegal in South Korea. Despite a proposed bill in the National Assembly to allow such sales, progress remains stalled.

The specter of this crisis can be seen in the approximately 20 “ghost campuses” that have sprung up around the country. These once-thriving educational spaces, where students once studied, now stand mostly or entirely abandoned. One poignant example is the deserted campus of Hanlyo University in one of the southern provinces.

LONE BRIGHT SPOT

The majority of primary and secondary schools in South Korea are either national or public, meaning that secondary school teachers are civil servants and the facilities are state-owned. This grants those teachers a measure of state protection, even amid declining enrollment. 

In fact, with fewer students, budgets allocated to South Korea’s primary and secondary schools are now running a surplus.

South Korean law, originating from the early 1970s when the nation had a high birth rate, mandates that 20.79% of domestic tax revenue is earmarked for the primary and secondary education budget. This regulation is still in effect today, despite the changing demographic reality.

The cost of public secondary education in South Korea stands at around $15,000, the second-highest in the OECD. Given the surplus funds in the education budget and a national treasury in deficit, the government is seeking ways to reallocate these excess resources to other sectors.

A person holding a stress ball, Nov. 18, 2016 | Image: Pexels via Matthias Zomer

ENDANGERED RURAL LIFE

Another sector where the impact of South Korea’s dwindling population is already perceptible is in the country’s rural villages. These communities, predominantly populated by older residents, face an uncertain future given the demographic trends.

South Korea is divided into 228 self-governing administrative-territorial units comprising cities, urban districts and rural counties. The number of these units believed to be on the verge of “extinction” varies, depending on the demographic forecasting model used.

For instance, a recent report by the interior ministry identified 89 regions as facing depopulation. In contrast, the Korea Employment Information Service forecasted that nearly half of the 228 cities, towns and districts could eventually disappear. Meanwhile, the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade takes a more optimistic view, predicting that only 56 units are at risk of disappearing.

Government subsidies have long been distributed to South Korean provinces in an attempt to stem the tide of population decline. In 2003, for instance, the government established a special account specifically to tackle this issue, funding projects in various provinces.

However, the effectiveness of these measures has been questionable at best, as cities, counties and districts frequently spend these grants on facilities with negligible impact on fertility rates, such as gyms.

Though many local governments across city, county and district lines are making concerted efforts to maintain their population levels, these endeavors are often unsuccessful. It is increasingly likely that numerous Korean villages and smaller towns will become ghost towns. 

One particularly symbolic case illustrating these demographic shifts is that of a primary school in Gyeonggi Province, near Seoul. This school was recently repurposed into a nursing home, reflecting the village’s transition from a once-vibrant population to one predominantly comprised of elderly residents.

Consequently, the future of the Korean countryside may be marked by a defining tableau of deserted villages, abandoned homes and expansive yet vacant facilities. Such a scenario paints a stark picture of South Korea’s demographic challenges and the potential long-term consequences for the quality of life outside a major urban center. 

Edited by John Lee