The U.S.-ROK alliance has rebounded under presidents Joe Biden and Yoon Suk-yeol. But China’s recent flying of a surveillance balloon into U.S. airspace could be the starting point of a divergence between Seoul and Washington. While the Biden administration will be under more pressure to display it is prepared for a possible armed conflict with China, South Korea is unlikely to overtly support the U.S.-ROK Combined Forces Command (CFC) being included in military plans beyond the peninsula.

For most of its existence, the CFC has focused on one mission: the defense of South Korea from the North. Thus, South Korea is unlikely to support what Seoul will see as a dwindling focus on the North Korean threat even as the North continues to fire off missiles and apparently prepares for its seventh nuclear test.