Recent polls show that President Yoon Suk-yeol’s approval rates have steadied in the mid-30s after a slow but steady climb through November and December. While that might seem low, Yoon likely considers a mid-30s approval rate a modest success considering the arc of his presidency up to this point.

But he cannot afford to remain satisfied with those numbers as the ROK’s political parties prepare themselves for next year’s parliamentary elections. Suppose the ruling People Power Party (PPP) fails to wrest majority control of the National Assembly from the main opposition Democratic Party (DP). In that case, Yoon will spend the remainder of his presidency without accomplishing any significant legislative goal.

As a result, Yoon has moved on from trying to unite the country and is now seeking to strengthen his conservative support ahead of next year’s elections. But he faces significant headwinds no matter which way he turns due to unforced errors that generate one controversy after another.

President Yoon Seok-yeol receives a report from the Ministry of Justice, the Fair Trade Commission, and the Ministry of Government Legislation, Jan. 26, 2023 | Image: ROK Presidential Office

SHIFTING GEARS

Yoon sparked a minor diplomatic incident when he said Iran was the main enemy of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) while visiting the latter, which led to Seoul and Tehran summoning each other’s envoys. Yoon set off more serious concerns when he said that South Korea could pursue its own nuclear weapons should North Korea’s nuclear weapons program persist.

Fortunately for Yoon, neither of these issues did much to dent his approval numbers significantly. Korea-Iran relations are not a significant public issue and his comments on nuclear weapons align with the preferences of a clear majority of the South Korean public. 

But time is not on Yoon’s side. If his approval rate is to sufficiently recover in time to matter for next year’s election, he must log success on the domestic front. Recognizing this, Yoon announced during his New Year’s address that he would spend the rest of his presidency reforming education, labor and pensions.

These three areas may require reform, but a recent NBS poll shows that the ROK public is lukewarm on the proposal. Only 51% agree on the need for education reform, and 48% say the same about labor and pension reform. More importantly, most are skeptical about Yoon even achieving those goals: 60% think he will not be able to realize these reforms during his term.

Labor reform offers a window into how Yoon will appeal directly to his base for his remaining time in office. 

Apart from loosening hiring and firing restrictions in the labor market overall, a significant part of the administration’s proposed changes is extending working hours from the current 52 hours to a maximum of 69 hours. In both scenarios, 40 hours form the standard work week, with overtime pay for any work over the base. There is already some discontent among small businesses and workers about the 52-hour cap. 

Polls illustrate a fundamental divide between the youngest and oldest South Koreans over the issue of extending the work week. Most of those 59 and younger oppose increasing the work week, while a majority of those 60 and older are in favor. This may be a case of partisan support, as older Koreans tend to support conservative presidents and therefore support Yoon’s proposed policies. 

Older voters’ support for Yoon’s proposed labor policies can also be due to South Koreans working later in life, with many entering the non-standard workforce after retiring. 

Many older Koreans often find it necessary to work after retirement, as Korea’s social safety net is relatively weak and those in the non-standard workforce can earn more money while working overtime hours. Thus, by extending overtime hours, Yoon is seeking to put money directly in the pockets of his strongest supporters.

Meanwhile, younger Koreans tend to take a different view. The OECD announced on Nov. 14 that South Korean workers’ average working hours totaled 1,915 in 2021, the fifth-longest in the Organization for Economic and Cooperative Development (OECD). 

And many young South Koreans are just entering the workforce, often in white-collar office jobs. As a result, their concern is likely more focused on work-life balance. Polls bear out this trend, as white-collar workers are the most negative about the proposal, with 64% opposed.

UPHILL BATTLE

Under the current political landscape, the likelihood of Yoon getting his reforms is slim. Former President Moon Jae-in and the DP-controlled National Assembly passed the bill that codified the 52-hour work week in 2018. As the DP controls the National Assembly, labor reform is virtually impossible for the foreseeable future. 

Yet this impossibility is unlikely to prevent Yoon from pursuing it. Part of getting his approval rates under control has been taking a harder line in his domestic politics and labor reform will fall neatly into the category. 

Yoon has found that taking a hardline approach to striking union workers and investigating union groups for possible ties to North Korean spies has not negatively impacted his approval rates.

International observers can expect President Yoon Suk-yeol to spend more of his political capital to strengthen support from his conservative base, and there is a chance that he will use labor reforms to do that.

Edited by John Lee