Emerging from the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic, South Korea has ambitious plans to boost tourism in 2023 and beyond. But with Chinese travelers yet to return, South Korean tourism will struggle to reach its full potential.

At the beginning of this year, the Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism announced that it aims to increase the number of foreign tourists from 970,000 in 2021 to 10 million in 2023 and 30 million by 2027. It also wants to increase income from tourism from $10.3 billion in 2021 to $16 billion in 2023 and $30 billion in 2027.

These are big jumps in a short time, but they might not be impossible. Tourists weren’t coming to South Korea over the past few years due to its COVID-19 restrictions and the quarantines they might have to face on returning to their own countries. Now that most countries have lifted such restrictions, including the ROK, it’s plausible that tourism could make a rebound.

Nevertheless, even in a post-pandemic world, these are still ambitious aims.

In 2019, South Korea earned $20.5 billion from 17.5 million tourists. For the ministry to achieve its goals in 2027, South Korea will have to almost double the number of foreign tourists and earn roughly 50% more than before the pandemic.

Adding to the challenge is that it remains uncertain when tourists from China — South Korea’s neighbor and the world’s most populous country — will return to their pre-pandemic levels.

Chinese tourists are yet to return to pre-pandemic levels | Image: Republic of Korea (Jan. 1, 2023)

RETURN OF CHINA

Before the pandemic, more tourists came to South Korea from China than from any other country. Of the roughly 17.5 million arrivals in 2019, around 6 million were from China. Far behind was Japan with 3.2 million, Taiwan with 1.2 million and the U.S. with 1 million.

In 2020, the first year of the pandemic, the number of Chinese arrivals plummeted to just 680,000. In 2021, the U.S., with 200,000 new arrivals, overtook China, with only 170,000. From Jan. to Nov. 2022, Chinese arrivals rose slightly to 200,000.

For most of the pandemic, the prospect of lengthy quarantines on return deterred Chinese nationals from planning a trip abroad. Although this is no longer necessary, the recent spike in COVID-19 cases has prompted some countries, including South Korea, to impose COVID-19 restrictions on all arrivals from China.

According to the government, South Korea’s short-term visa suspension will last until the end of January. Further, all travelers from China must produce a negative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test before and after arriving until the end of February.

However, Seoul added that it might extend the restrictions depending on the situation, something South Korea has done before during the pandemic.

In response, the Chinese Embassy in Seoul announced that it would stop issuing short-term visas to South Koreans. Beijing apparently decided to take this action because it viewed Seoul’s move to add restrictions on Chinese arrivals as an insult, as some kind of political move or because it is trying to leverage its influence on South Korea. 

China will “adjust” the measure depending on whether South Korea cancels its “discriminatory entry restrictions,” the embassy in Seoul said. Last week, China’s immigration office added that it is suspending transit visa exemptions for South Korean citizens.

Although relations are strained, Chinese tourist numbers could recover once South Korea lifts its measures and China, hopefully, reciprocates.

But, China has used tourism as a retaliatory tool in the past to devastating effect. In July 2016, South Korea announced that it would deploy the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system on the peninsula in response to North Korea’s weapons program. China protested that THAAD’s radar system could track its missile forces and retaliated with several economic measures, including a ban on group tours to South Korea in March 2017.

As a result, Chinese arrivals halved from roughly 8 million in 2016 to around 4 million in 2017.

South Korea’s cautious approach to the pandemic thus far suggests that China will find it more difficult to persuade Seoul to adjust its COVID-19 policies. South Korea will likely enforce the current restrictions until it is confident that China’s pandemic situation is under control.

But the THAAD row serves as a reminder that whatever plans South Korea has for tourism rely heavily on the state of its relationship with China at any given moment.

K-pop has boosted South Korea’s image on the global stage | Image: Republic of Korea (Sept. 8, 2021)

K-CULTURE VULTURES

Even though Chinese tourists are vital to South Korean tourism, the Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism’s plans for the next few years suggest that it might mitigate the impact of their low numbers by promoting Korea more strongly worldwide.

For instance, the ministry plans to invest $622.5 million into fostering and promoting Korean cultural exports this year, up from the roughly $420 million it spent in 2022.

According to government figures released on Jan. 5 this year, cultural content exports reached an all-time high of $12.4 billion in 2021. That’s more than home appliances ($8.67 billion), electric vehicles ($6.99 billion) and display panels ($3.6 billion).

South Korean popular culture — films, TV shows and music — has weathered the pandemic somewhat successfully: “Squid Game” became Netflix’s most-watched program, BTS broke music records in the U.S. and Youn Yuh-jung became the first Korean national to win an acting Oscar for her role in “Minari.” 

Even though it was challenging to visit the country, these successes promoted South Korea through mediums that people could enjoy while still living under social distancing measures.

Korean culture’s popularity could bleed into the culture ministry’s efforts to promote South Korean tourism, including a new culture training visa that will allow foreigners to stay in the country for up to two years. The ministry also wants to hold “K-tourism road shows” in 15 cities around the world.

In short, South Korean tourism will likely face an upward trajectory after a tough few years due to the COVID-19 pandemic. But to reach its full potential, it’s difficult to ignore the millions of potential Chinese tourists that aren’t coming.

Once South Korea lifts its restrictions, Chinese tourists will likely be back, and in large numbers. Many in South Korea’s tourism industry will be hoping this is the case — and that any bumps in the road in political relations between the two countries don’t disrupt this too much.

Edited by John Lee