Multiple North Korean drones entered South Korean airspace along the western border on Monday. While many details about what happened remain unclear, initial reports point to an embarrassing ROK military failure to counter unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) that has pushed the Yoon administration into damage control mode.

According to Yonhap News Agency, a fixed-wing drone flew into the airspace above northern Seoul before returning to North Korea, while South Korea detected four other drones that operated near Ganghwa island for more than five hours before “disappearing” from ROK sensors.

The day after, President Yoon Suk-yeol sought to pin the blame for the incident on his predecessor’s policies, while voicing “regret” that the National Assembly slashed the government’s proposed budget for anti-drone operations by 50% next year. He said he would work with lawmakers to increase the amount.

Yet the political reality is that there’s little chance the National Assembly will go along with what Yoon wants just days after concluding a hard-fought battle over the government budget for 2023, meaning that the military — and the president — are for now stuck with what they’ve got.

UNIMPRESSIVE MILITARY RESPONSE

South Korea responded to the infiltration of suspected North Korean drones by scrambling about 20 military aircraft, including F-15K and KF-16 fighters, as well as KA-1 light attack aircraft and Apache and Cobra attack helicopters. One KA-1 light attack aircraft crashed soon after takeoff. Its two pilots safely escaped the crash and no one on the ground was injured. 

Yonhap reports the ROK military fired more than 100 rounds at the UAVs, but all attempts to shoot down the drones failed. A military spokesperson later said that it refrained from shooting the drone over residential areas over fears of injury or property damage.

Later, the ROK military responded with a tit-for-tat measure by conducting its own UAV reconnaissance operations over the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) dividing the Koreas. According to the Chosun Ilbo newspaper, Seoul deployed two RQ-101 “Songgolmae” unmanned reconnaissance aircraft over the border.

Monday’s drone operations mean that both Koreas violated the Comprehensive Military Agreement (CMA) signed in Sept. 2018. The agreement prohibits activities of UAVs in areas within 9 miles (15 km) from the MDL in the East and 6 miles (10 km) from the MDL in the West. 

On Tuesday, Yoon blamed the former Moon administration for Monday’s events. 

“South Koreans would have seen very well just how dangerous it has been to base our North Korea policy on the DPRK’s goodwill and military agreements [with them], seeing how there has been no concentrated effort or adequate building of military power to respond to [DPRK] drones and no relevant training at all since 2017,” he said.

However, Yoon was incorrect in suggesting that South Korea has made no effort to build up military capabilities for responding to North Korean drones since 2017. The ROK Army formed a drone combat team under the wing of the Third ROK Army (TROKA) in 2018.

South Korea also allocated $32.6 million (37.5 billion won) in Aug. 2021 to purchase domestic drones, a more than sixfold increase from the previous year.

South Korean National Assembly, June 2019, via Wikimedia Commons

UNIMPRESSIVE POLITICAL RESPONSE

While Yoon’s remarks were inaccurate, Monday’s events marked the first time North Korean drones entered South Korean airspace in five years and arguably the DPRK’s most intrusive act during a record year of missile tests, artillery drills and aerial exercises.

That notwithstanding, Yoon will have difficulty convincing lawmakers to increase the country’s defense budget.

The National Assembly passed the $497 billion (638.7 trillion won) budget for 2023 on Saturday after a delay. The ruling People Power Party (PPP) and the main opposition Democratic Party (DP) argued for weeks over cutting corporate taxes, amid bitter fights surrounding corruption investigations and no-confidence motions.

The parties decided to cut the corporate tax rate by one percentage point in each of the four tax brackets. Still, no one is happy with the result: The tax benefits for semiconductor investments have been derided as “half-baked” by PPP Rep. Yang Hyang-ja. The budget that ended up passing was 314.2 billion won less than what the Yoon administration proposed and the partisan divide is worse than ever.

Both parties only agreed to pass the budget because failure to do so by Dec. 31 would have crippled the government and prevented it from carrying out everyday duties. Voters would have been unforgiving to both major parties had that happened as slumping exports, high interest rates, high inflation and a high consumer price index besieged the country.

Now that legislators have passed the budget, they are too embittered toward each other to revisit the budget anytime soon. Although no major elections are scheduled for 2023, both parties face intra-party leadership challenges in 2024. As prospective candidates vie for power, neither camp will see compromise as a winning strategy.

The military will have to devise solutions to the problems that the North Korean drones showcased because the parliament won’t provide the quick fix Yoon seeks.

Edited by Bryan Betts