Whether or not it was due to poor strategy or general incompetence, the Yoon Suk-yeol administration’s botched handling of U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s recent visit likely won it few friends in Washington.

Since announcing his run for the presidency last year, Yoon has portrayed himself as staunchly pro-American, in contrast to his predecessor who he says undercut South Korean security by appeasing China.

But when push comes to shove, it looks like his administration isn’t as unwaveringly supportive of the U.S. as it likes to make out, and its muddled approach that tries to please everyone risks alienating Washington, Beijing and even the South Korean electorate.

Even though Pelosi isn’t the leader of the U.S., the leaders of Taiwan, Japan, Singapore and Malaysia all welcomed her during her recent Asia trip. Yoon was the only leader that didn’t greet her in person.

Yoon did phone Pelosi when she was in South Korea. But Seoul even mismanaged the leadup to this: First Yoon wasn’t going to meet Pelosi because he was on vacation, then reports suggested he would meet her, then the presidential office refuted these rumors and then it announced that there would be a call at the last minute.

But Pelosi didn’t need to come all the way to the Korean Peninsula for a phone call that she could have made from her office in Washington.

Adding insult to injury, Seoul didn’t even send a delegation to welcome Pelosi when she arrived at the airport.

This kerfuffle could have been the result of the Yoon administration’s ineptitude more than a lack of support for the U.S. But neglecting Pelosi may have also been an attempt to avoid drawing China’s wrath.

Various issues threaten to derail South Korea-China relations | Image: Republic of Korea (Aug. 27, 2016)

STANDING UP TO CHINA?

South Korea has been attempting to reconfigure relations with its largest trading partner, but it’s having mixed results.

Recently, South Korean foreign minister Park Jin reiterated the Yoon administration’s position that the previous Moon Jae-in government’s promise not to deploy any additional batteries of the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile interceptor system was not a formal agreement.

In response, Beijing asserted that “a commitment made should be a commitment kept despite [the] change of government,” describing the deployment as “the U.S.’s malicious intention to deliberately undermine China’s strategic security.”

The Yoon administration hasn’t done anything concerning THAAD yet, and such comments might just be designed to score points with the U.S. and South Korean conservatives. But Seoul is playing with fire, undoubtedly wary of prompting another round of Chinese economic boycotts that caused billions of dollars in damage between 2016 and 2017 in response to the initial THAAD deployment.

South Korea is also under pressure from the U.S. to join the Chip 4 alliance, a semiconductor group that includes Taiwan and Japan. Beijing sees it as an attempt to block China from semiconductor value chains.

While Yoon insists that “people don’t have to worry about it too greatly,” Seoul is going to great efforts to stress that the Chip 4 isn’t an “alliance” but rather a “consultative body” that shouldn’t exclude a “certain country.” This is because it doesn’t want to anger that “certain country” which makes up around 60% of South Korea’s semiconductor exports.

According to an official from South Korea’s presidential office, Seoul will decide whether or not to join based on the results of the initial meeting scheduled for late August or early September.

It remains to be seen to what extent Beijing will retaliate, since China needs South Korean chipmakers to sustain its push for semiconductor self-sufficiency. But Chinese state media has warned that “decoupling with such a large market is of no difference from commercial suicide” and that market laws are “ruthless” to those that violate them.

On THAAD, China asserts that “a commitment made should be a commitment kept despite [the] change of government” | Image: @USArmy (Feb. 6, 2019)

The Yoon administration appears to have avoided offending China through its lukewarm reception for Pelosi, which analysts cited in Chinese state media have interpreted as an attempt to avoid “provoking China.”

But even though Seoul seems to have avoided discussions on Taiwan, the issue is coming closer to home, since China conducted military exercises in response to Pelosi’s Asia trip near South Korean waters.

Yoon’s clumsiness with respect to the U.S. and China also risks alienating the South Korean electorate.

According to a recent KSOI poll, 60.3% of those surveyed thought the president’s decision not to meet Pelosi was “inappropriate and not in accordance with the national interest.” This may have been linked to South Koreans’ negative perception of China, which has dropped to similar levels of former colonial ruler Japan in recent months.

Even some lawmakers from Yoon’s People Power Party (PPP) criticized how the administration dealt with Pelosi’s visit. Yoon can’t afford to lose any more support — his approval rating is now down to just 24%.

However, Seoul does have an opportunity to save relations with Beijing before they reach a THAAD-level nadir. 

Foreign minister Park is now on the second day of his trip to Qingdao, where he will meet top officials including his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi.

The 30th anniversary of diplomatic ties between South Korea and China is just around the corner. This gives the two countries a chance to celebrate the highlights of the past few decades and, as Park said, discuss “the next 30 years of bilateral relations.”

Seoul will envision that future as one of even more trade and prosperity, framing its alliance with the U.S. as not a threat to China but a response to North Korea.

But the Yoon administration is teetering on a diplomatic tightrope. In a world where it’s becoming increasingly difficult not to pick a side between the U.S. and China, it remains to be seen whether Seoul can keep up its balancing act.

Edited by Bryan Betts