{"id":2209093,"date":"2025-04-10T14:43:59","date_gmt":"2025-04-10T05:43:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2209093"},"modified":"2025-04-11T14:08:14","modified_gmt":"2025-04-11T05:08:14","slug":"trumps-tariff-pause-steadies-markets-but-south-koreas-crisis-is-far-from-over","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2025\/04\/trumps-tariff-pause-steadies-markets-but-south-koreas-crisis-is-far-from-over\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump\u2019s tariff pause steadies markets, but South Korea\u2019s crisis is far from over"},"content":{"rendered":"

After a day of <\/span>global market panic<\/span><\/a>, U.S. President Donald Trump abruptly <\/span>paused<\/span><\/a> his \u201creciprocal tariffs\u201d on all countries except China, offering a temporary reprieve but leaving deeper structural instability unresolved.<\/span><\/p>\n

The announcement followed a rapid escalation: Washington\u2019s <\/span>additional 50% tariff hike<\/span><\/a> on Chinese goods had triggered a cascade of retaliation from <\/span>China<\/span><\/a> and the <\/span>European Union<\/span><\/a> (EU), sparking fears of a full-blown trade rupture and exposing South Korea\u2019s limited ability to respond to external pressures.<\/span><\/p>\n

China swiftly responded by <\/span>raising tariffs<\/span><\/a> on U.S. goods from 34% to 84%, effective April 10, and <\/span>adding<\/span><\/a> 12 American firms to its export-control list \u2014 barring them from importing dual-use Chinese technologies.<\/span><\/p>\n

Concurrently, the European Commission announced that EU member states had unanimously approved trade <\/span>countermeasures<\/span><\/a> against the U.S. in response to Washington\u2019s tariffs on European steel and aluminum. These will take effect on April 15.<\/span><\/p>\n

Market panic surged on Wednesday as investors braced for escalation. But Trump\u2019s partial reprieve \u2014 which does not apply to China \u2014 triggered a <\/span>rebound<\/span><\/a> and left trade partners scrambling to reassess their positions amid ongoing uncertainty.<\/span><\/p>\n

The coordinated escalation among the world\u2019s largest economies reflects a fundamental breakdown in trade governance, with the World Trade Organization (WTO) largely <\/span>sidelined<\/span><\/a> and unable to reverse the pace of global protectionism.<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korea, which relies deeply on global trade flows, now finds itself caught in the crossfire.<\/span><\/p>\n

The KOSPI closed at 2,293.70 on Wednesday, its lowest level since Oct. 2023, but rebounded sharply Thursday, gaining 112.95 points to finish at 2,406.65 \u2014 a 4.92% increase. Meanwhile, the won fell to 1,484.1 per U.S. dollar, a 16-year low, on Wednesday before recovering to 1,457.6 on Thursday.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

The main digital display board at the Korea Exchange, July 25, 2024 | Image: Korea Pro<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

TRADE ORDER UNRAVELS<\/b><\/p>\n

The current wave of tariff increases represents the most serious challenge to the global trade framework built over the past generation \u2014 and the clearest sign it may no longer hold. While <\/span>previous trade spats<\/span><\/a> \u2014 including those during Trump\u2019s first term \u2014 caused localized disruptions, the scope, speed and coordination of the current responses suggest a systemic rupture.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Trump administration\u2019s latest 50% tariff addition on Chinese imports, along with the rest of his \u201c<\/span>reciprocal tariffs<\/span><\/a>\u201d that target almost every U.S. trade partner, builds upon layers of existing duties. Many Chinese goods now face effective rates reaching 104%.<\/span><\/p>\n

In response, Beijing framed its retaliation as \u201cnecessary to safeguard national economic interests,\u201d while the EU emphasized that Washington\u2019s tariffs were \u201cunjustified and damaging,\u201d causing economic harm to both sides, as well as the global economy.<\/span><\/p>\n

For South Korea, these developments represent the erosion of the very architecture that has supported its industrial expansion and export competitiveness for decades. The simultaneous breakdown in trade relations between all three of Seoul\u2019s top economic partners \u2014 the U.S., China and the EU \u2014 signals a shift from managed competition to open confrontation.<\/span><\/p>\n

SOUTH KOREA\u2019S VULNERABILITIES<\/b><\/p>\n

Unlike larger economies, South Korea lacks the strategic might to influence trade negotiations at scale. Its role in the global economy is defined by high exposure and limited leverage \u2014 as seen in its <\/span>$66 billion trade surplus<\/span><\/a> with the U.S. in 2024, its deep integration into Chinese supply chains and its reliance on the EU for environmental regulatory alignment.<\/span><\/p>\n

Now, all three relationships are under pressure. South Korea\u2019s exports \u2014 which faced the risk of a <\/span>26% tariff<\/span><\/a> under Trump\u2019s reciprocal tariff plan \u2014 are temporarily exempt for 90 days. China\u2019s retaliation against the U.S. is likely to reverberate through ROK supply chains, particularly in semiconductors, batteries and raw material inputs.<\/span><\/p>\n

The EU\u2019s entry into the trade dispute threatens to further fragment market access and regulatory consistency.<\/span><\/p>\n

In a world of retaliatory trade blocs and politicized tariffs, neutrality is increasingly indistinguishable from passivity. South Korea\u2019s vulnerabilities \u2014 once mitigated by the stability of global institutions \u2014 are now magnified by their erosion.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

ROK Acting President Han Duck-soo (April 4, 2025) and U.S. President Donald Trump (March 27, 2025) | Image: ROK Prime Minister’s Office<\/a>, White House<\/a>, edited by Korea Pro<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

POLITICAL RESTRAINT, MARKET PANIC<\/b><\/p>\n

South Korea\u2019s Acting President Han Duck-soo has sought to project calm amid the turbulence. His <\/span>30-minute call<\/span><\/a> with Trump on Tuesday emphasized cooperation, and in a CNN interview hours later, Han publicly rejected retaliatory tariffs, calling them counterproductive.<\/span><\/p>\n

Han\u2019s message of \u201cwin-win\u201d diplomacy remains consistent with South Korea\u2019s traditional posture in asymmetric trade disputes. But that posture is now being tested by an increasingly erratic global environment. Trump\u2019s tariff shock and its abrupt reversal within 24 hours have fueled uncertainty, not stability.<\/span><\/p>\n

In response, South Korean ministries raced to contain fallout. The finance ministry convened <\/span>emergency meetings<\/span><\/a> to monitor currency pressures and potential capital flight, while the trade ministry held <\/span>consultations<\/span><\/a> with semiconductor executives to assess exposure to U.S.-China trade tensions.<\/span><\/p>\n

These real-time responses highlight how South Korea\u2019s economic management is shifting from strategy to crisis containment \u2014 even as the acting president publicly downplays the urgency of escalation.<\/span><\/p>\n

The South Korean government unveiled in February a $248.7 billion (366 trillion won) <\/span>emergency export response package<\/span><\/a>, including liquidity assistance and expanded export insurance to shield exporters from escalating global trade risks.<\/span><\/p>\n

While these steps may alleviate short-term cash flow concerns, they are unlikely to protect firms from the larger shock of demand destruction and investment volatility.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Bank of Korea, June 26, 2024 | Image: Korea Pro<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

POLICY OPTIONS NARROW<\/b><\/p>\n

The Bank of Korea (BOK) remains constrained. Although markets temporarily stabilized following Trump\u2019s partial tariff pause, the underlying pressure on South Korea\u2019s currency and capital flows remains unresolved.<\/span><\/p>\n

Unless a broader resolution is reached, the tariff pause is set to expire in early July \u2014 raising the risk of renewed escalation shortly after South Korea\u2019s presidential election, which is set for June 3.<\/span><\/p>\n

With inflation data ticking higher and long-term U.S. Treasury yields still <\/span>elevated<\/span><\/a>, any move to lower rates risks exacerbating capital outflows. But maintaining current interest rates may no longer be sufficient to restore investor confidence or curb volatility.<\/span><\/p>\n

The central bank\u2019s credibility rests on its perceived independence and competence. But the BOK\u2019s tools are designed for predictable boom-bust cycles \u2014 not the whiplash of geopolitically driven trade shocks. The won\u2019s depreciation on Wednesday to levels not seen since the 2008 global financial crisis highlights the structural nature of the current threat.<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korea is deploying significant fiscal firepower in response to the crisis. In addition to its earlier export support package, the finance ministry signaled further readiness to intervene as needed. Moreover, with a presidential election approaching and leading candidates such as main opposition Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung advocating <\/span>looser fiscal policy<\/span><\/a>, additional stimulus may be politically inevitable.<\/span><\/p>\n

But even robust stimulus cannot counterbalance the deeper risks of global demand fragmentation and policy unpredictability. Export losses driven by trade protectionism, supply chain realignments and weakening global demand are unlikely to respond to domestic stimulus alone.<\/span><\/p>\n

If the current trajectory holds, South Korea could face significant secondary effects in the months ahead. Export growth will likely contract, particularly in automobiles, electronics and chemical sectors. Investor sentiment may weaken further, risking sustained capital outflows and downward pressure on the won.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

A cargo ship carrying containers, Dec. 21, 2016 | Image: Pexels<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

A SYSTEM UNDER STRESS<\/b><\/p>\n

The global trade system, as evidenced by the proliferation of bilateral deals and retaliatory measures, has lost its predictability. The WTO\u2019s appellate body has remained non-functional since 2019, effectively paralyzing enforcement mechanisms.<\/span><\/p>\n

As a result, coordinated trade governance has largely given way to nationalist policy swings and short-term reprieves. Trump\u2019s abrupt decision to delay most reciprocal tariffs may have bought time \u2014 but not certainty.<\/span><\/p>\n

That unpredictability is now the defining feature of the global trade system. In place of stability, Seoul faces a fractured global landscape shaped by improvisational policymaking and geopolitical friction. Having built its prosperity on export competitiveness within a rules-based framework, South Korea is increasingly vulnerable to every external shock.<\/span><\/p>\n

Unlike past economic crises, this is not a passing shock. The Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic were devastating in their own ways, but both occurred within a functioning global trade structure. What now exists is a system in name only \u2014 the architecture remains, but its guardrails no longer function.<\/span><\/p>\n

And while Trump\u2019s tariff reversal has delayed some damage, the system remains fundamentally unstable and subject to further escalation on short notice.<\/span><\/p>\n

Seoul cannot dictate the rules, but it must navigate them while facing a leadership transition. With Acting President Han Duck-soo set to step down on June 3, South Korea\u2019s next administration will inherit not just a presidency, but a global crisis without precedent \u2014 and a world where the rules that built South Korea\u2019s prosperity no longer apply.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by Alannah Hill<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Business & Economy<\/span><\/a>Domestic Politics<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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