{"id":2208931,"date":"2025-03-31T11:35:40","date_gmt":"2025-03-31T02:35:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2208931"},"modified":"2025-04-01T15:36:21","modified_gmt":"2025-04-01T06:36:21","slug":"south-korea-in-march-2025-a-month-in-review-and-whats-ahead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2025\/03\/south-korea-in-march-2025-a-month-in-review-and-whats-ahead\/","title":{"rendered":"South Korea in March 2025: A month in review and what\u2019s ahead"},"content":{"rendered":"
About Month In Review
\n<\/a><\/b><\/p>\n
Every month, <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span> delivers an authoritative analytical review of developments in South Korea, offering comprehensive coverage of political, economic and strategic shifts that shape the peninsula. <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span>‘s Month in Review serves as an essential resource for policymakers, business leaders and analysts seeking to navigate South Korea\u2019s quickly-changing dynamics and stay ahead of the curve.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n
This detailed report examines key events from the previous month, providing actionable intelligence and expert analysis across six critical domains: politics and governance, economy and finance, trade and business, foreign relations, defense and security and society and culture.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n
Our team of specialists combines deep local knowledge with strategic insight to deliver nuanced analysis of both immediate developments and long-term trends. Each section features thorough examination of primary indicators, risk assessments and forward-looking analysis, complemented by data and other primary source information. The report concludes with a succinct outlook for the month ahead, identifying crucial events and emerging trends that will influence South Korea\u2019s trajectory.<\/span><\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n
\nTable of Contents<\/strong> <\/span><\/div>\n01<\/span>Executive Summary<\/span><\/span><\/a>02<\/span>Politics and Governance<\/span><\/span><\/a>03<\/span>Economy and Finance<\/span><\/span><\/a>04<\/span>Business and Trade<\/span><\/span><\/a>05<\/span>Foreign Relations<\/span><\/span><\/a>06<\/span>Defense and Security<\/span><\/span><\/a>07<\/span>Society and Culture<\/span><\/span><\/a>08<\/span>The Month Ahead<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\nU.S. President Donald Trump meets with then-South Korean President Moon Jae-in in New York | Image: ROK Blue House (Sept. 2017), edited by Korea Pro<\/p><\/div>\n
\nExecutive Summary<\/h4>\n
In South Korean <\/span>domestic politics<\/b> this March, the Constitutional Court reinstated Prime Minister Han Duck-soo while it continues to deliberate on President Yoon Suk-yeol\u2019s impeachment, deepening political polarization. A Seoul court approved Yoon\u2019s release from detention citing procedural flaws, while the Seoul High Court acquitted main opposition Democratic Party (DP) leader Lee Jae-myung of election law violations in late March. Public opinion remained divided in leading polls, although they showed slightly stronger support for both impeachment and opposition-led regime change compared to February.<\/span><\/p>\n
South Korea\u2019s <\/span>economic<\/b> outlook darkened as the Bank of Korea (BOK) warned of slowing growth amid U.S. trade protectionism. Devastating wildfires across southeastern regions compounded inflation concerns in agricultural sectors. A surge in household lending revived housing market risks despite weak consumption, while the government\u2019s industrial stimulus package faced skepticism due to limited private sector enthusiasm.<\/span><\/p>\n
In <\/span>trade<\/b> relations, South Korean exporters were hit by significant U.S. tariffs on vehicles and auto parts, and ROK was notably excluded from exemptions offered to Canada and Mexico. Major corporations responded quickly and strategically, with Hyundai and Korean Air announcing substantial U.S. investments. American industry groups also intensified lobbying against Korean regulations on digital platforms, films and beef imports.<\/span><\/p>\n
Foreign relations<\/b> were complicated by the belated discovery that the U.S. Department of Energy had decided to designate South Korea as a \u201csensitive country\u201d in January during the final days of the Biden administration. The move triggered domestic controversy when revealed this month. Meanwhile, the foreign ministers of South Korea, Japan and China convened in Tokyo to prepare for a potential leadership summit.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n
In defense news,<\/b> South Korean fighter jets mistakenly bombed a civilian town near the inter-Korean border, injuring civilians shortly ahead of a large-scale spring time joint exercise with U.S. forces. In Seoul, military officers involved in the Dec. 3 martial law faced dismissal following indictments for insurrection. South Korea this month joined NATO\u2019s Science & Technology Organization as the third Indo-Pacific member state as concerns about Trump\u2019s transactional approach to military alliances continued.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n
South Korean <\/span>society<\/b> faced multiple crises as an unprecedented scale of wildfires devastated southeastern cities for days, destroying forests, structures and centuries-old historical sites. ROK authorities this month launched efforts against organized crime rings involving foreign nationals. Meanwhile, a major study revealed alarming suicide contemplation rates among socially isolated youth, particularly females. Labor forecasts warned of workforce shortages as demographics shift, with healthcare and social welfare sectors expanding while retail and food service industries contract due to automation.<\/span><\/p>\n
Edited by John Lee<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n
An illustration of protestors gathered in front of a court | Image: Korea Pro<\/p><\/div>\n
\nPolitics and Governance<\/h4>\n
KEY DEVELOPMENTS<\/b><\/p>\n
\n
- Court approves Yoon\u2019s release from detention:<\/b> On March 7, a Seoul court approved President Yoon Suk-yeol\u2019s request to cancel his detention, citing procedural flaws in the arrest. The following day, the Prosecutors\u2019 Office announced it would not appeal the ruling, prompting immediate backlash from the opposition bloc and the investigators involved. His release fueled speculations about the impeachment process, with various polls and commentary suggesting that more observers predicted that the Constitutional Court may not uphold Yoon\u2019s impeachment than there were in February.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
- Constitutional Court reinstates Han Duck-soo:<\/b> On March 24, the Constitutional Court overturned the National Assembly\u2019s impeachment of Prime Minister Han Duck-soo. The court reinstated Han as both Prime Minister and Acting President \u2014 positions he had been suspended from since Dec. 27, 2024. Han\u2019s impeachment was primarily due to his refusal to appoint three justices to the Constitutional Court, as nominated by the National Assembly. While the court deemed his inaction as unconstitutional, it concluded that this violation did not warrant his removal from office. \u200b<\/span><\/li>\n
- Extended deliberation on Yoon\u2019s impeachment heightens political polarization: <\/b>The Constitutional Court\u2019s prolonged deliberation over Yoon\u2019s impeachment has intensified political divisions and speculations about the reason behind the delay. Legal experts had anticipated a decision by mid-March. However, polls also showed that the Constitutional Court had gained public trust by the end of March compared to February. \u200b<\/span><\/li>\n
- High Court overturns DP leader Lee Jae-myung\u2019s conviction: <\/b>On March 26, the Seoul High Court acquitted DP leader Lee Jae-myung of charges related to violations of the Public Official Election Act. This decision overturned a lower court\u2019s November conviction that would have barred Lee from running for public office if upheld by the Supreme Court. Despite his acquittal, Lee still faces multiple legal challenges related to bribery and a property development scandal, but the cases will likely be suspended if Lee wins the presidency should Yoon be removed from office. \u200b<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
PUBLIC SENTIMENT<\/b><\/p>\n
Recent polling by Gallup Korea, National Barometer Survey (NBS) and Realmeter in the third week of March continues to show a deeply divided South Korean society. Public opinion on impeachment and potential regime change has solidified.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n
\n
- Protests and public polarization: <\/b>On March 1, large-scale rallies were held in downtown Seoul and other major cities, with both pro- and anti-impeachment groups mobilizing tens of thousands of participants. Just days later, on March 4, the National Election Commission issued a public apology over allegations of preferential hiring. Conservative media and political figures seized on the scandal to fuel renewed election fraud claims.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Party approval ratings: <\/b>The opposition maintains a lead across all major polls.<\/span>\n
\n
- Gallup Korea: Opposition leads. Polls show 40% support for the Democratic Party (DP), 36% for the ruling People Power Party (PPP), and 19% identifying with no particular party.<\/span><\/li>\n
- NBS: Opposition leads. Their survey recorded 38% for the DP and 32% for the PPP, with 7% for the minor opposition Rebuilding Korea Party and remaining support split among other minor parties.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Realmeter: Opposition leads. Their results showed 43.6% for the DP and 40% for the PPP, with the gap narrowing compared to previous weeks.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n
- Impeachment sentiment:<\/b> Support for impeachment has hardened, with all major polls showing majority backing for the president\u2019s removal.<\/span>\n
\n
- Gallup Korea shows 58% supporting impeachment while 36% oppose it. The 20-50 age demographic shows approximately 70% in favor of impeachment, while those in their 60s are evenly split (49% for, 46% against). Among those over 70, 59% oppose impeachment.<\/span><\/li>\n
- NBS finds 60% in favor of impeachment compared to 35% who support reinstatement, maintaining a 25-point gap. Among self-identified moderates, 72% support impeachment.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Public trust in the Constitutional Court has increased, with NBS showing 60% trusting the impeachment trial process, up from February, while 36% do not trust it.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n
- Public acceptance of the Court\u2019s decision: <\/b>According to NBS, 55% of respondents said they would accept the Constitutional Court\u2019s decision even if it differed from their own opinion, while 42% indicated they would not accept a decision contrary to their preference.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Regime change sentiment: <\/b>The majority continues to support an opposition candidate winning a potential presidential race.<\/span>\n
\n
- Gallup shows 51% favoring an opposition candidate for regime change, versus 39% backing a PPP candidate.<\/span><\/li>\n
- NBS shows similar results with 51% favoring regime change compared to 36% supporting continued rule by the current governing party.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
- Realmeter shows 53.9% supporting regime change versus 40.4% favoring continuity of the current administration.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Among moderates, NBS shows 60% favor regime change, while Gallup Korea reports 57% of moderates support opposition candidates.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n
- Presidential frontrunners: <\/b>DP leader Lee Jae-myung maintains his lead in presidential preference polls.<\/span>\n
\n
- Gallup Korea\u2019s free response survey shows Lee leading with 36% (up from 34% in February), followed by Kim Moon-soo (9%), with Han Dong-hoon and Oh Se-hoon at 4% each, and Hong Jun-pyo at 3%.<\/span><\/li>\n
- NBS shows a similar ranking with Lee at 33% (up slightly from February), followed by Kim Moon-soo (10%), with Oh Se-hoon and Hong Jun-pyo at 5% each, and Han Dong-hoon at 4%.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Candidate favorability ratings from NBS show Lee Jae-myung with 40% favorable impressions, followed by Kim Moon-soo (24%), Oh Se-hoon (22%), Hong Jun-pyo and Han Dong-hoon (17% each).<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n
- Economic outlook: <\/b>Public sentiment about the economy remains pessimistic amid continued political uncertainty.<\/span>\n
\n
- Gallup Korea reports 56% of respondents expect the economy to worsen in the coming year, while only 17% anticipate improvement. The survey notes that this pessimism spans across political ideologies, suggesting the prolonged leadership vacuum has created a convergence in economic concerns across partisan lines.<\/span><\/li>\n
- The younger generation (20s-30s) shows greater pessimism about both economic prospects and international relations compared to middle-aged and elderly respondents.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
PARTY POLITICS<\/b><\/p>\n
\n
- Ruling party continues to wait: <\/b>The PPP continues to face internal division in the absence of a clear presidential frontrunner. While high-profile figures like former PPP leader Han Dong-hoon remain active, the party\u2019s leadership has largely maintained a wait-and-see stance pending the Constitutional Court\u2019s ruling.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
- \u2018K-NVIDIA\u2019 debate: <\/b>On March 2, DP leader Lee Jae-myung proposed a \u201cKorean NVIDIA\u201d initiative, calling for large-scale public investment in AI and semiconductor infrastructure, citing precedents like Taiwan\u2019s early stake in TSMC and Singapore\u2019s Temasek model. The PPP strongly opposed the proposal, with some lawmakers calling it \u201cAI populism\u201d and \u201csocialist.\u201d<\/span><\/li>\n
- PPP to \u2018accept\u2019 court ruling: <\/b>On March 16, PPP floor leader Kweon Seong-dong stated that the party would \u201caccept the Constitutional Court\u2019s ruling regardless of the outcome,\u201d drawing criticism from the DP, which argued the remark was an attempt to \u201cthreaten\u201d the Court.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Six opposition parties file complaint against the Prosecutor General<\/b>: On March 10, six opposition parties jointly filed a criminal complaint against Prosecutor General Shim Woo-jung, alleging abuse of power and obstruction in ongoing investigations.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
- DP leads a large-scale march: <\/b>Following Yoon\u2019s release from detention, DP lawmakers led a march from the National Assembly to Gwanghwamun on March 12, calling for judicial accountability and defending the integrity of the impeachment process.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
- Lee acquitted after some DP factional divide: <\/b>Some high-profile politicians within the DP signaled interest in challenging Lee Jae-myung in a primary should there be a presidential election. However, Lee Jae-myung\u2019s acquittal on March 26 will likely help him solidify his position and fend off potential competitors.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
EXECUTIVE\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n
\n
- Choi\u2019s tenure ends after various external challenges: <\/b>Then-Acting President Choi Sang-mok faced a series of U.S. actions in March, including new tariffs on Korean steel and aluminum and Korea\u2019s designation as a \u201csensitive country.\u201d In response, Choi launched interagency task forces to manage the growing economic and diplomatic fallout. In his final days as acting president, he faced an urgent national crisis as a large wildfire broke out in South Gyeongsang Province. The wildfire response overlapped with the lead-up to Prime Minister Han Duck-soo\u2019s reinstatement.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Return of Prime Minister Han Duck-soo: <\/b>On March 24, the Constitutional Court dismissed the impeachment motion against Han, leading to his reinstatement.<\/span><\/li>\n
- More impeachment pending:<\/b> Despite Han\u2019s reinstatement, the DP announced plans to proceed with the impeachment motion against Choi for the same reason they impeached Han before \u2014 not appointing all of the Constitutional Court justice nominees. The motion is expected to be addressed in the upcoming National Assembly session, but reports indicate there are some disagreements within the DP about impeaching Choi.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
JUDICIARY AND LAW ENFORCEMENT<\/b><\/p>\n
\n
- Court dismissals reinforce speculation of imminent Yoon ruling:<\/b> On March 13, the Constitutional Court dismissed impeachment motions against the Auditor General and three prosecutors, ruling that the actions in question did not meet the threshold for removal from office.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
- Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon investigated over poll manipulation allegations: <\/b>On March 20, prosecutors raided the office of Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon as part of an investigation into allegations of illegal payments for public opinion polling. Oh, a leading conservative contender for the potential presidential election, denied wrongdoing. The raid may complicate Oh\u2019s positioning within the conservative field.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
LOOKING AHEAD<\/b><\/p>\n
In April, all eyes will be on the Constitutional Court as it prepares to deliver its ruling on Yoon\u2019s impeachment. The decision \u2014 most probably expected before April 18, when two justices reach the end of their six-year terms \u2014 will determine whether Yoon is reinstated or removed from office. If removed, it would trigger a snap presidential election within 60 days.<\/span><\/p>\n
If the court rules in favor of impeachment, the race to replace Yoon will immediately intensify, with the DP likely to consolidate behind Lee Jae-myung, whose legal troubles have recently eased. The PPP, still divided over its future leadership, would be forced to accelerate its selection of a viable presidential contender. Meanwhile, if Yoon is reinstated, questions will remain about his political capital, public trust in institutions and the opposition\u2019s strategy going into the 2026 general elections.<\/span><\/p>\n
Edited by John Lee<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n
Stock charts during a live trading session | Image: Korea Pro (March 27, 2025)<\/p><\/div>\n
\nEconomy and Finance<\/h4>\n
KEY DEVELOPMENTS<\/b><\/p>\n
\n
- Growth warning deepens amid tariff fears:<\/b> The Bank of Korea (BOK) <\/span>warned<\/span><\/a> that South Korea\u2019s 2025 GDP growth could fall to 1.4% if U.S. trade protectionism continues to escalate, revising down its earlier forecast. Central bank officials cited sluggish exports and rising global uncertainty as key downside risks. The warning came alongside the BOK\u2019s introduction of the new Financial Conditions Index \u2013 Growth (FCI-G), which showed mildly accommodative conditions, even as the traditional FCI remained tight. Policymakers emphasized that financial easing since the start of the year has been driven by falling short-term rates and recovering equity markets.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Wildfires compound inflation concerns:<\/b> The <\/span>worst wildfires<\/span><\/a> in South Korea\u2019s history swept across North Gyeongsang, South Gyeongsang and Ulsan in late March, killing at least 27 people and damaging farmland, supply chains and energy infrastructure. Authorities declared a nationwide emergency, raising the wildfire alert level to its highest status and mobilizing thousands of personnel. With agricultural output expected to fall in affected regions, the fires are likely to push up produce prices in the second quarter. The disaster also risks widening existing inequalities, as rural economies face longer recovery periods and reconstruction burdens.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Liquidity growth revives housing market risks:<\/b> A <\/span>surge<\/span><\/a> in household lending and financial system liquidity prompted renewed concern over real estate market overheating. Despite weak consumption indicators, property prices in metropolitan areas showed signs of resurgence, driven by speculative buying and regulatory easing. With U.S. interest rates still high, South Korea\u2019s rate gap has widened to 1.75%, further constraining the BOK\u2019s ability to ease policy without triggering capital outflows.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Industrial stimulus questioned amid credit strain:<\/b> The South Korean government announced a <\/span>$728 million (1 trillion won) stimulus package<\/span><\/a> in March aimed at revitalizing regional industry and narrowing the economic gap with Seoul. The plan includes investment in energy infrastructure, logistics and semiconductors. However, market analysts noted that private sector participation remains tepid due to tight liquidity conditions and heightened business uncertainty, limiting the program\u2019s near-term impact. Without fiscal expansion or targeted credit support, the initiative may fall short of its goal to boost regional employment and manufacturing output.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
POLICY DECISIONS<\/b><\/p>\n
\n
- The government granted <\/span>temporary exemptions<\/span><\/a> to working-hour limits for R&D staff in semiconductors and high-tech industries.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Authorities signaled heightened vigilance in equity and bond markets ahead of <\/span>short-selling resumption<\/span><\/a> on March 31 and amid U.S. tariff concerns, though no formal stabilization measures were announced.<\/span><\/li>\n
- A new 1 trillion won industrial stimulus package was launched to promote regional manufacturing growth outside Seoul.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
SENTIMENT AND INDEXES<\/b><\/p>\n