{"id":2208568,"date":"2025-03-03T12:32:53","date_gmt":"2025-03-03T03:32:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2208568"},"modified":"2025-03-03T16:35:15","modified_gmt":"2025-03-03T07:35:15","slug":"south-korea-in-february-2025-a-month-in-review-and-whats-ahead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2025\/03\/south-korea-in-february-2025-a-month-in-review-and-whats-ahead\/","title":{"rendered":"South Korea in February 2025: A month in review and what\u2019s ahead"},"content":{"rendered":"
About Month In Review
<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n
Every month, Korea Pro delivers an authoritative analytical review of developments in South Korea, offering comprehensive coverage of political, economic and strategic shifts that shape the peninsula. Korea Pro’s Month in Review serves as an essential resource for policymakers, business leaders and analysts seeking to navigate South Korea\u2019s quickly-changing dynamics and stay ahead of the curve.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n
This detailed report examines key events from the previous month, providing actionable intelligence and expert analysis across six critical domains: politics and governance, economy and finance, trade and business, foreign relations, defense and security and society and culture.<\/em><\/p>\n
Our team of specialists combines deep local knowledge with strategic insight to deliver nuanced analysis of both immediate developments and long-term trends. Each section features thorough examination of primary indicators, risk assessments and forward-looking analysis, complemented by data and other primary source information. The report concludes with a succinct outlook for the month ahead, identifying crucial events and emerging trends that will influence South Korea\u2019s trajectory.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n
\nTable of Contents<\/div>\n01<\/span>Executive Summary<\/span><\/a>02<\/span>Politics and Governance<\/span><\/a>03<\/span>Economy and Finance<\/span><\/a>04<\/span>Business and Trade<\/span><\/a>05<\/span>Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a>06<\/span>Defense and Security<\/span><\/a>07<\/span>Society and Culture<\/span><\/a>08<\/span>The Month Ahead<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n\nSouth Korea’s eight Constitutional Court justices preside over President Yoon Suk-yeol’s fourth impeachment hearing | Image: ROK Constitutional Court (Jan. 23, 2025), edited by Korea Pro<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n\nExecutive Summary<\/h4>\n
In South Korean <\/span>domestic politics<\/b> in February, the Constitutional Court wrapped up hearings for President Yoon Suk-yeol’s impeachment trial, with a decision expected before mid-March. Public opinion remains divided on impeachment, with polls showing majority support for Yoon\u2019s impeachment while a significant minority opposes it. Unlike January\u2019s focus on the impeachment vote itself, February saw conservative voters\u2019 attention shift to the trial\u2019s legitimacy and the Constitutional Court\u2019s impartiality.<\/span><\/p>\n
South Korea\u2019s <\/span>economy<\/b> faced challenges, with the Bank of Korea slashing growth forecasts to 1.5%. The central bank reduced interest rates by a quarter percentage point, but it faces a policy dilemma due to inflation concerns and the interest gap with U.S. rates. Consumer sentiment rose but remains below pre-martial law crisis levels. Meanwhile, main opposition Democratic Party (DP) leader Lee Jae-myung\u2019s suggestion that the party adopt a \u201ccentrist-conservative\u201d stance in economic and other policy matters triggered internal discord.<\/span><\/p>\n
In <\/span>business and trade<\/b>, U.S. tariffs severely impacted South Korean steel and electric vehicles as the Trump administration removed previous import exemptions for the ROK. Concurrently, China\u2019s rare metal export controls threaten the country\u2019s semiconductor and defense industries. However, the Korea-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Free Trade Agreement moved toward ratification, promising expanded market access. Meanwhile, Samsung Chairman Lee Jae-yong was acquitted of merger fraud charges.<\/span><\/p>\n
South Korea\u2019s <\/span>foreign relations<\/b> progressed slowly in February. The first U.S.-ROK-Japan trilateral meeting under Trump\u2019s second administration notably supported Taiwan\u2019s participation in international organizations. South Korea\u2019s vote for the U.S.-proposed U.N. resolution on the war in Ukraine revealed diplomatic tensions, as Seoul supported the resolution while expressing regret about the resolution\u2019s omission of explicitly condemning Russia for instigating the conflict.<\/span><\/p>\n
In <\/span>defense<\/b>, South Korea launched a new Task Fleet Command and deployed the Korean Tactical Surface-to-Surface Missile system. Meanwhile thirty senior military officers, including 17 generals, are under investigation for their roles in Yoon\u2019s Dec. 3 martial law declaration.<\/span><\/p>\n
February highlighted persistent <\/span>social<\/b> challenges, including a fatal elementary school stabbing incident that prompted legislation on teachers\u2019 mental health monitoring. Demographics show declining life satisfaction, rising suicide rates and record low school enrollment figures.<\/span><\/p>\n
Edited by John Lee<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n
\nMain opposition Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung | Image: Democratic Party of Korea<\/a>, edited by Korea Pro<\/p><\/div>\n
\nPolitics and Governance<\/h4>\n
KEY DEVELOPMENTS<\/b><\/p>\n
\n
- Impeachment trial wraps up<\/b>: The Constitutional Court continued hearings on President Yoon Suk-yeol\u2019s impeachment, concluding ten rounds of testimony and legal arguments before the final hearing on Feb. 25. The court is expected to reach a decision by around March 10. Meanwhile, partisan divisions deepened over the legitimacy of the trial\u2019s procedure and the Constitutional Court\u2019s impartiality, especially among right-wing politicians and pundits.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Democratic Party divided: <\/b>The DP is grappling with internal discord after party leader Lee Jae-myung suggested the party adopt a \u201c<\/span>centrist-conservative<\/span><\/a>\u201d stance. This proposal triggered strong backlash from more traditional progressive factions, with senior DP figures criticizing the move as a betrayal of the party\u2019s foundational values.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Calls for constitutional reform<\/b>: Amid political uncertainty, discussions on constitutional amendments gained traction, particularly regarding power distribution between the executive and legislative branches. PPP lawmakers, including floor leader Kwon Seong-dong, called for a <\/span>constitutional revision<\/span><\/a> to limit the president\u2019s authority, while opposition figures remained divided on the scope and timing of such reforms. This debate kicked off after DP leader Lee Jae-myung in a major speech said South Korea needs a system that allows voters to <\/span>recall and remove<\/span><\/a> elected lawmakers.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/blockquote>\n
<\/ul>\n
<\/ul>\n
PUBLIC SENTIMENT<\/b><\/p>\n
Recent surveys by Gallup, National Barometer Survey (NBS) and Realmeter reflect a deeply divided society. The public remains divided about the ruling and opposition parties, Yoon\u2019s impeachment and whether the opposition should retake the presidency. While voters\u2019 support for the different parties are within the margin of error, public opinion on impeachment and potential regime change varies notably by poll and demographic group.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n
Party approval rate: <\/b>As of the third week of February, the overall gap between the two major parties remains narrow.<\/span><\/p>\n
\n
- Gallup Korea: Opposition leads. <\/b>Polls<\/span><\/a> show 34% support for the People Power Party (PPP), 40% for the DP and 18% of respondents identifying with no particular party.<\/span><\/li>\n
- NBS: Ruling party leads. <\/b>Their <\/span>survey<\/span><\/a> recorded 37% for PPP and 34% for the DP, with the remaining percentages split among minor parties and undecided voters.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Realmeter: Competing under margin. <\/b>Their <\/span>results<\/span><\/a> showed 42.7% for PPP and 41.1% for the DP.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Presidential approval rate: <\/b>The three major pollsters excluded questions about Yoon\u2019s job performance (approval rate) after the National Assembly\u2019s impeachment led to his suspension.<\/span><\/p>\n
Impeachment sentiment:<\/b> Gallup polls show that 60% of respondents support impeachment, while 34% oppose it. 69% of self-identified centrists supported impeachment. NBS finds that 55% favor impeachment compared to 39% who support his reinstatement. Realmeter finds 52% is in favor of impeachment, with 45.1% supporting reinstatement \u2014 the narrowest gap among three surveys.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n
Public trust regarding the Constitutional Court: <\/b>Realmeter and NBS\u2019 additional question shows that trust in the Constitutional Court is now a partisan issue. This divide comes amid allegations from far-right and conservative media and pundits that some Constitutional Court justices identify themselves as progressives.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n
\n
- NBS <\/b>shows<\/span> 55% responded that they \u201ctrust the impeachment trial process,\u201d while 41% responded that they do not.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
\n
- Realmeter <\/b>similarly shows that while 50.7% trust that the court is proceeding with Yoon\u2019s impeachment trial \u201cfairly,\u201d 45.0% perceive the procedure as \u201cunfair.\u201d<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Regime change sentiment: <\/b>In general, the majority continues to support an opposition candidate to win a potential presidential race, although with varying degrees. For instance, Realmeter\u2019s polls, which relies on an automated response system (ARS), indicates a narrow gap between those who support the ruling party to retain control of the presidency and those who support the opposition.<\/span><\/p>\n
\n
- Gallup<\/b> polls showed 53% of respondents favor an opposition candidate, versus 37% backing a PPP candidate. <\/span>NBS<\/b> showed 49% for an opposition win, compared to 40% in favor of a ruling party candidate. <\/span>Realmeter, <\/b>however, shows 49% supported an opposition-led change against 45.3% for continued rule by a ruling party candidate, showing decreased support for the former.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
- Along party lines, independent voters are nearly evenly split (37.2% continuation vs 38.7% change in Realmeter). Moderates showed stronger support for change with 56.5% favoring regime change compared to 38.3% supporting continuation. By age, those in their 70s, 60s and 20s showed stronger support for maintaining the current administration, while those in their 40s and 50s favored regime change.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Presidential frontrunners: <\/b>Overall, Lee Jae-myung leads with a favorability ranging between 31% and 35%, followed by mostly conservative figures \u2014 Kim Moon-soo and Oh Se-hoon, with Hong Joon-pyo and Han Dong-hoon trailing closely behind. Other progressive figures are competing under the margin of error with minimal support. With former PPP leader Han Dong-hoon recently implying he may return to politics, his support rose across different polls.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n
\n
- Gallup<\/b> conducts the presidential preference survey through free response, not multiple choice questions. Here, DP\u2019s Lee leads with 34%, followed by Kim Moon-soo (9%), Hong Joon-pyo (5%), Han Dong-hoon and Oh Se-hoon (4%), Cho Kuk and Lee Jun-seok (2%).\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
\n
- NBS<\/b> shows a similar ranking with Lee leading with 31%, followed by Kim (10%), with more in favor of Oh (8%) than Han or Hong (5%).\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
PARTY POLITICS<\/b><\/p>\n
Ruling party: <\/b>The PPP witnessed significant political activity among its prominent figures, likely in preparations for the snap elections in May.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n
\n
- Kim Moon-soo: <\/b>Labor minister Kim, recently emerging in polls as a potential conservative frontrunner, has been increasingly active, fueling media speculation about his potential presidential ambitions. When questioned about his frequent appearances and possible political motives, Kim responded that interpretations of his actions are up to individual voters.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Oh Se-hoon: <\/b>The Seoul mayor organized a <\/span>constitutional amendment forum<\/span><\/a> at the National Assembly on Feb. 12. Many media outlets viewed Oh\u2019s recent public engagements, along with his remarks on national security and his criticism of DP leader Lee Jae-myung, as groundwork for a potential presidential bid.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Han Dong-hoon<\/b>: The former PPP leader appears to be preparing to resume political activities after publishing a <\/span>memoir<\/span><\/a>, reportedly engaging with the so-called \u201cUnder 73\u201d group \u2014 a faction of PPP members born after 1973. Han has also reportedly been consulting with political veterans and experts in foreign affairs and economics to broaden his political network.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Hong Joon-pyo: <\/b>The Daegu mayor and former PPP candidate for president has been vocal on social media, particularly opposing Yoon\u2019s impeachment, directly mentioning his interest in running for presidency.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Opposition party:<\/b> DP leader Lee Jae-myung attracted criticism from within his party by suggesting that the DP should embrace a \u201ccentrist-conservative\u201d stance. Lee argued that positioning the DP as a moderate force was necessary to broaden its appeal and attract moderate voters, particularly ahead of a potential snap election.<\/span><\/p>\n
\n
- Kim Bu-gyum, <\/b>a former prime minister, criticized Lee\u2019s remarks, stating that the party\u2019s identity cannot be unilaterally altered by one individual. <\/span>Kim Kyung-soo,<\/b> the former Governor of South Gyeongsang Province, echoed similar concerns, arguing that the party\u2019s foundational values should not be redefined through a single declaration.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
- Lee defended his position by citing former presidents Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun, who had also positioned the party as moderate or center-right during their respective presidencies.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
LOOKING AHEAD<\/b><\/p>\n
March is set to be a pivotal month for South Korean domestic politics, with the Constitutional Court\u2019s ruling on Yoon\u2019s impeachment expected around March 10. The decision \u2014 requiring at least six justices to uphold the National Assembly\u2019s impeachment motion \u2014 will determine whether Yoon is reinstated or if the country will elect a new leader within 60 days of the court\u2019s ruling.<\/span><\/p>\n
In the interim, Acting President Choi Sang-mok faces mounting challenges in managing trade and security risks while attempting to push through key legislative priorities.<\/span><\/p>\n
If the Constitutional Court upholds impeachment, both major parties are expected to intensify their efforts to claim the \u201ccentrist\u201d mantle. Additionally, the likelihood of large-scale political protests in central Seoul is expected to rise, further amplifying policy uncertainty in the weeks ahead. If the court rejects Yoon\u2019s impeachment<\/span>, <\/b>South Korea will likely enter into a period of severe political crisis as legislation and governance will likely face paralysis.<\/span><\/p>\n
Edited by John Lee<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n
\nAn illustration of rolled-up bank notes on a chess board | Image: Korea Pro (Feb. 24, 2025)<\/p><\/div>\n
\nEconomy and Finance<\/h4>\n
KEY DEVELOPMENTS<\/b><\/p>\n
\n
- Growth forecasts cut:<\/b> The Bank of Korea (BOK) lowered its 2025 GDP growth projection to <\/span>1.5%<\/span><\/a>, reflecting Morgan Stanley\u2019s <\/span>forecast cut<\/span><\/a> and reinforcing concerns of stagnation. With external trade risks mounting and corporate investment slowing, South Korea faces its weakest economic expansion since the pandemic.<\/span><\/li>\n
- BOK faces a policy dilemma:<\/b> The central bank <\/span>cut interest rates<\/span><\/a> by 0.25 percentage points, but inflation concerns and a 1.5 percentage point gap with U.S. rates complicate its decision. A weaker won and rising energy costs are fueling inflation, while further rate cuts risk triggering capital outflows and further currency depreciation.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Consumer confidence and market risks:<\/b> The Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) <\/span>rose<\/span><\/a> to 95.2 in February, up from 91.2 in January, but it remains below pre-martial law crisis levels, signaling cautious optimism amid persistent economic concerns. Meanwhile, the government\u2019s decision to <\/span>resume short selling<\/span><\/a> on March 31 is drawing scrutiny from foreign investors, with potential market volatility ahead.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/blockquote>\n
POLICY DECISIONS<\/b><\/p>\n
\n
- Budget lacks flexibility:<\/b> The $467.4 billion <\/span>national budget<\/span><\/a> does not sufficiently address supplementary budgets, rising corporate debt and falling tax revenues, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability. Political gridlock has also stalled potential stimulus measures.<\/span><\/li>\n
- BOK\u2019s rate-cut strategy:<\/b> The BOK must balance weak growth with inflation risks, particularly as major central banks in Europe, India and Australia have already <\/span>begun easing policy<\/span><\/a> to maintain global competitiveness.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Corporate debt liquidity risks:<\/b> With $34.6 billion in corporate bonds maturing in the first half of 2025, companies face higher refinancing costs, which could limit investment and job creation in key sectors like manufacturing and construction.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
SENTIMENT AND INDEXES<\/b><\/p>\n