{"id":2208427,"date":"2025-02-19T15:57:29","date_gmt":"2025-02-19T06:57:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2208427"},"modified":"2025-02-20T16:28:51","modified_gmt":"2025-02-20T07:28:51","slug":"south-koreas-2025-budget-ignores-trade-and-debt-risks-at-its-peril","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2025\/02\/south-koreas-2025-budget-ignores-trade-and-debt-risks-at-its-peril\/","title":{"rendered":"South Korea\u2019s 2025 budget ignores trade and debt risks at its peril"},"content":{"rendered":"

South Korea\u2019s <\/span>2025 budget overview<\/span><\/a> is already obsolete, failing to account for looming corporate debt risks, political instability and inevitable supplementary budgets.<\/span><\/p>\n

The $467.4 billion (673.3 trillion won) budget, passed in December <\/span>without input<\/span><\/a> from the ruling People Power Party (PPP) after President Yoon Suk-yeol\u2019s failed martial law declaration, prioritizes <\/span>front-loaded spending<\/span><\/a> to counter economic uncertainty.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, it overlooks critical challenges \u2014 rising corporate bond maturities, Donald Trump\u2019s trade policies, supply chain disruptions and global market volatility.<\/span><\/p>\n

With Bank of Korea (BOK) Governor Rhee Chang-yong already calling for an <\/span>additional stimulus<\/span><\/a> between $10.3 billion and $13.8 billion (15 to 20 trillion won) and the main opposition Democratic Party (DP) <\/span>proposing<\/span><\/a> a $24.3 billion (35 trillion won) supplementary budget, South Korea\u2019s fiscal plan is likely to be rewritten before mid-year.<\/span><\/p>\n

BUDGET PASSED WITHOUT CONSENSUS<\/b><\/p>\n

The 2025 budget\u2019s political legitimacy is weak, having been pushed through unilaterally by the DP after Yoon\u2019s martial law declaration failed. The DP-controlled National Assembly excluded the PPP from negotiations, approving the budget without input from the ruling party or the presidential office.<\/span><\/p>\n

The move was unprecedented in South Korean legislative history and sets the stage for legislative battles over future spending adjustments.<\/span><\/p>\n

Following the budget\u2019s passage, then-Prime Minister Han Duck-soo ordered an aggressive front-loading of expenditures, directing ministries to deploy most of their budgets in the first half of 2025 to offset economic headwinds.<\/span><\/p>\n

The strategy aimed to boost liquidity amid concerns over weak consumer sentiment, persistent dollar strength and Trump\u2019s return to the U.S. presidency. However, the rush to spend early leaves the government with limited fiscal flexibility, increasing the likelihood of mid-year funding shortfalls and emergency supplementary budgets.<\/span><\/p>\n

BOK Governor Rhee has already warned that more stimulus may be necessary, urging the government to support economic stability through proactive fiscal policy. The DP\u2019s push for a 35 trillion won supplementary budget may be an election strategy in the likely event of the Constitutional Court upholding Yoon\u2019s impeachment, but it also signals that the 2025 budget is insufficient to meet economic demands.<\/span><\/p>\n

If spending adjustments remain a politically charged issue, the legislative process could become deadlocked, delaying much-needed fiscal responses.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Main opposition Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung attends a party task force meeting to discuss revitalizing the South Korean stock market at the Korea Exchange, Nov. 28, 2024 | Image: Democratic Party of Korea<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

CORPORATE DEBT RISKS RISING<\/b><\/p>\n

South Korea\u2019s corporate debt market faces a critical test in 2025, with $34.6 billion (<\/span>49.8 trillion won<\/span><\/a>) in corporate bonds maturing in the first half of the year. As borrowing costs rise and investor confidence declines, many firms \u2014 especially in construction and infrastructure sectors \u2014 may struggle to roll over maturing debt.<\/span><\/p>\n

Taeyoung Engineering and Construction<\/span><\/a>, a major player in South Korea\u2019s real estate sector, exemplifies this financial distress. The company entered debt restructuring in late 2023 after its debt-to-equity ratio surged to <\/span>479%<\/span><\/a>, the highest among its peers.<\/span><\/p>\n

In May 2024, it secured creditor approval for a $695 million (<\/span>1 trillion won<\/span><\/a>) debt-to-equity swap, aimed at stabilizing its financial position. After entering into a debt restructuring program, the company announced last week that its preliminary operating profit for 2024 totaled $10.5 million (<\/span>15.1 billion won<\/span><\/a>), returning to profit after a loss the previous year.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite Taeyoung\u2019s modest turnaround, the construction industry is particularly <\/span>exposed<\/span><\/a>, with firms facing high leverage, declining housing demand and increased material costs. Bond yields for AA- corporate debt have widened to <\/span>0.682 percentage points<\/span><\/a>, signaling rising investor risk aversion.<\/span><\/p>\n

If major construction companies are unable to refinance, a liquidity squeeze could spread to banks and other lenders, amplifying financial instability.<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite these risks, the 2025 budget does not address the growing debt crisis. There are no contingency plans for sector-specific bailouts, nor any government-backed liquidity support mechanisms for struggling companies. The financial stability of highly leveraged firms will depend on market conditions, with no clear government safety net in place.<\/span><\/p>\n

CONSTRUCTION SECTOR UNDER PRESSURE<\/b><\/p>\n

Beyond corporate debt risks, South Korea\u2019s construction sector faces additional financial headwinds. The industry is grappling with cost inflation, weak investment sentiment and global trade disruptions \u2014 factors not accounted for in the budget.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s return to the White House has already introduced renewed uncertainty into global trade, with <\/span>U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum<\/span><\/a> driving up costs for South Korean developers. The reimplementation of protectionist policies is forcing construction firms to absorb higher material costs while also dealing with lingering supply chain disruptions.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rising logistics expenses have compounded the problem, making it more expensive to complete large-scale infrastructure projects.<\/span><\/p>\n

Investment sentiment in the sector has also turned negative. South Korea\u2019s top five construction firms have set their 2025 revenue targets below 2024 earnings, signaling pessimism about future project activity. Weak demand in the domestic housing market, coupled with higher financing costs, has slowed the pace of new developments.<\/span><\/p>\n

If the trend continues, the broader economy could feel the impact through declining job creation and reduced industrial output.<\/span><\/p>\n

These pressures, combined with rising borrowing costs and weak demand, increase the likelihood of more defaults in the sector. Without government intervention or fiscal adjustments, the industry\u2019s financial strain could spill over into the broader economy. A failure to address these vulnerabilities could put additional downward pressure on <\/span>South Korea\u2019s growth prospects<\/span><\/a>, affecting long-term growth prospects.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

A building under construction | Image: Canva<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

SUPPLEMENTARY BUDGETS INEVITABLE<\/b><\/p>\n

With front-loaded spending and growing fiscal challenges, the 2025 budget will require mid-year revisions. The DP\u2019s proposed supplementary budget would provide additional economic stimulus, but it also raises concerns about the long-term sustainability of government debt.<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korea\u2019s national debt is already projected to reach $884 billion (1,273.3 trillion won), and repeated supplementary budgets could increase borrowing costs.<\/span><\/p>\n

The front-loading strategy leaves little flexibility for external shocks, raising critical questions about how the government will finance new spending demands. If export growth weakens or corporate defaults rise, additional intervention may be required. Moreover, South Korea\u2019s credit rating could also come under scrutiny if investors perceive a growing reliance on debt-funded stimulus.<\/span><\/p>\n

The fate of additional fiscal spending will likely be determined by political negotiations between the DP and PPP, as both sides attempt to shape economic policy heading into the next election cycle. While the DP favors expansionary fiscal measures, the PPP may push for more conservative spending policies, complicating budget negotiations.<\/span><\/p>\n

A YEAR OF ADJUSTMENTS<\/b><\/p>\n

The 2025 budget is not the final fiscal plan \u2014 it is merely the starting point for a year of spending battles and economic adjustments. With corporate debt risks rising, the construction sector under stress and global trade disruptions impacting supply chains, the government\u2019s fiscal response will likely evolve rapidly. The battle over supplementary budgets will determine how much South Korea can cushion its economy from external and internal shocks.<\/span><\/p>\n

If the construction sector\u2019s woes worsen, or if other industries begin to experience refinancing difficulties, the government may be forced to provide targeted liquidity support, a scenario not currently factored into the budget.<\/span><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, any escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions or additional U.S. tariffs under Trump will likely further destabilize South Korea\u2019s export-driven economy, requiring additional policy interventions.<\/span><\/p>\n

For investors, businesses and policymakers, the focus should not be on the budget document itself, but rather on how the government adapts to emerging fiscal and economic challenges. South Korea\u2019s true spending plan for 2025 will be shaped not by what was passed in December, but by the policy shifts and financial pressures that unfold throughout the year.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by Alannah Hill<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Business & Economy<\/span><\/a>Domestic Politics<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

South Korea\u2019s 2025 budget overview is already obsolete, failing to account for looming corporate debt risks, political instability and inevitable supplementary budgets. 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