{"id":2208334,"date":"2025-02-11T15:08:19","date_gmt":"2025-02-11T06:08:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2208334"},"modified":"2025-02-11T15:08:19","modified_gmt":"2025-02-11T06:08:19","slug":"trumps-tariffs-hit-south-korean-steel-hard-as-us-trade-war-expands","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2025\/02\/trumps-tariffs-hit-south-korean-steel-hard-as-us-trade-war-expands\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump\u2019s tariffs hit South Korean steel hard as US trade war expands"},"content":{"rendered":"

U.S. President Donald Trump\u2019s sweeping 25% tariffs<\/a> on all steel and aluminum imports mark a return to his aggressive protectionist trade policies, this time without exceptions. Unlike in 2018, when South Korea secured a <\/span>quota-based exemption<\/span><\/a>, the new tariffs apply uniformly, dealing a direct blow to South Korean steelmakers.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Trump administration has also threatened reciprocal tariffs on semiconductors, automobiles and batteries, raising broader trade risks. With South Korea already facing weak growth this year, a <\/span>slowing job market<\/span><\/a> and domestic political instability, these tariffs deepen uncertainty while forcing the ROK to reassess its trade and industrial policies.<\/span><\/p>\n

TARIFF REGIME BREAKDOWN<\/b><\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s latest tariffs eliminate all country-specific exemptions, marking a stark contrast to his first term\u2019s steel policy. The previous quota-based exemption allowed South Korea to export up to <\/span>2.63 million tons of steel<\/span><\/a> annually to the U.S. duty-free.<\/span><\/p>\n

That arrangement, which Seoul requested the Biden administration to lift, is now void. With no exclusions, South Korean steel exports must now compete in the U.S. market at a significant cost disadvantage.<\/span><\/p>\n

The move is part of Trump\u2019s broader trade overhaul, with a focus on his <\/span>\u201cAmerica First\u201d policies<\/span><\/a>. His administration argues that foreign steel producers, particularly in China, benefit from government subsidies that distort market pricing.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, by targeting all imports equally, the tariffs penalize longstanding U.S. allies, including South Korea, Japan, Canada and Mexico. Mexico and Canada secured a temporary <\/span>one-month pause<\/span><\/a> on enforcement, but no such grace period was granted to South Korea as yet.<\/span><\/p>\n

Unlike his earlier tariff threats against Canada and Mexico, which were used as bargaining leverage in <\/span>separate disputes<\/span><\/a>, the steel and aluminum tariffs are unlikely to be reversed through negotiations.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s economic advisers <\/span>argue<\/span><\/a> that these measures are necessary to protect American manufacturing jobs and prevent the \u201ctransshipment\u201d of Chinese steel through third-party countries. South Korean officials now face an uphill battle to carve out any kind of new exemption or negotiate relief.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

U.S. President Donald Trump signs an executive order imposing 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports with Commerce Secretary nominee Howard Lutnick standing next to him, Feb. 11, 2025 | Image: White House<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

STEEL INDUSTRY IMPACT<\/b><\/p>\n

South Korea exported <\/span>2.77 million tons<\/span><\/a> of steel to the U.S. in 2024, making it the fourth-largest supplier after Canada, Mexico and Brazil. The U.S. accounted for approximately 13% of South Korea\u2019s total steel exports, making it one of the country\u2019s most important markets.<\/span><\/p>\n

A 25% tariff fundamentally alters the competitiveness of South Korean steel in the U.S., forcing major producers like POSCO and Hyundai Steel to make difficult strategic decisions.<\/span><\/p>\n

The financial hit will be severe. The U.S. is a high-margin market for South Korean steelmakers due to its strong demand and relatively high domestic prices. The tariffs significantly erode this advantage. Companies must now either absorb the additional costs, which will cut into already slim margins, or pass them on to consumers, making their products less competitive.<\/span><\/p>\n

Given that the global steel market is already <\/span>oversupplied<\/span><\/a> \u2014 particularly with Chinese and Indian steel \u2014 South Korean companies will find it challenging to find alternative buyers. The European Union (EU) has <\/span>safeguard measures<\/span><\/a> on steel until June 2026 and Southeast Asian markets are already saturated.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s latest tariffs on steel and aluminum will inevitably lead to job losses in steel-dependent industries. The steel industry had already been under pressure due to <\/span>declining construction demand<\/span><\/a>. Further, rising input costs resulting from the South Korean won\u2019s steady decline has exacerbated the sector\u2019s woes.<\/span><\/p>\n

With export revenues now at risk, the sector will likely see a wave of <\/span>restructuring<\/span><\/a> and cost-cutting measures.<\/span><\/p>\n

ESCALATING TRADE TENSIONS<\/b><\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s trade policies extend beyond steel and aluminum. The White House has hinted at further measures targeting countries with persistent trade surpluses with the U.S. South Korea\u2019s surplus stood at <\/span>$66 billion in 2024<\/span><\/a>, making it a likely target for Trump\u2019s proposed reciprocal tariff system.<\/span><\/p>\n

Semiconductors are particularly vulnerable. South Korean firms hold dominant global market share \u2014 <\/span>DRAM at 75.5% and NAND flash at 55.8%<\/span><\/a> \u2014 with U.S. tech giants heavily dependent on their supplies.<\/span><\/p>\n

A tariff on South Korean semiconductors would disrupt supply chains and raise costs for U.S. firms like Apple, Nvidia and Microsoft. While South Korean chipmakers could potentially pass on costs to customers, a tariff would weaken their competitive position relative to Taiwanese and American rivals.<\/span><\/p>\n

The auto industry faces similar risks. Hyundai and Kia have significantly expanded U.S. investments in response to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), but if Trump moves to impose tariffs on imported vehicles or scrap Biden-era subsidies for electric vehicles, South Korean automakers will face declining demand.<\/span><\/p>\n

The battery sector, already grappling with IRA subsidy uncertainties, as expressed by U.S. Commerce Secretary nominee Howard Lutnick\u2019s remarks during his Senate confirmation hearing, is also exposed. LG Energy Solution and SK On, both major U.S. investors, could see increased cost pressures if the Trump administration also targets battery components.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

ROK Acting President Choi Sang-mok (center) presides over a Cabinet meeting, Feb. 11, 2025 | Image: ROK Ministry of Economy and Finance<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n

BROADER ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES<\/b><\/p>\n

The steel and aluminum tariffs add to mounting challenges for South Korea\u2019s economy. Morgan Stanley recently <\/span>cut its 2025 growth forecast<\/span><\/a> for South Korea to 1.5%, citing weak consumer spending and external headwinds. The Bank of Korea (BOK) has also <\/span>lowered its growth estimate<\/span><\/a> to 1.6 to 1.7%, reflecting the fourth quarter\u2019s weaker-than-expected performance last year.<\/span><\/p>\n

The trade shock will exacerbate existing economic pressures. The South Korean won, already under pressure from sluggish exports, could depreciate further if export revenues decline. This would raise import costs, complicating inflation management and potentially forcing the BOK to maintain a <\/span>hawkish monetary stance<\/span><\/a> for at least another year.<\/span><\/p>\n

The construction sector, which has been one of the hardest-hit industries in South Korea, will feel indirect pressure. With the domestic housing market struggling, steel companies had hoped to offset losses by boosting exports. The tariffs now make that strategy far less viable.<\/span><\/p>\n

SOUTH KOREA\u2019S RESPONSE OPTIONS<\/b><\/p>\n

Seoul has limited tools at its disposal. One option is to challenge the tariffs at the World Trade Organization (WTO), but the intergovernmental organization\u2019s dispute settlement mechanism remains paralyzed due to U.S. <\/span>obstruction of Appellate Body appointments<\/span><\/a> since 2019. With numerous trade disputes remaining unresolved, a WTO intervention appears unlikely.<\/span><\/p>\n

Diplomatic engagement is another avenue, but political instability at home complicates matters. With President Yoon Suk-yeol still facing <\/span>impeachment proceedings<\/span><\/a>, South Korea lacks a stable government to negotiate with Washington. Acting President Choi Sang-mok, who heads a caretaker government, does not have the required political capital to push for high-level trade talks with Trump.<\/span><\/p>\n

Strategically, South Korea will need to accelerate efforts to diversify its export markets. Expanding trade agreements with the EU, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the Middle East could help mitigate the impact of U.S. protectionism. Concurrently, South Korea may need to emphasize domestic demand and supply chain resilience.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, these are long-term goals. South Korea has immediate fires to put out, with little recourse to do so.<\/span><\/p>\n

One potential bright spot is that South Korean firms already have localized production in the U.S., which could shield them from the worst effects of additional tariffs. However, steel and aluminum producers lack similar flexibility, making them the most exposed sector.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

ROK President Yoon Suk-yeol (far left) attends his hearing at the Constitutional Court for his martial law declaration, Feb. 7, 2025 | Image: ROK Constitutional Court<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

FUTURE IMPLICATIONS<\/b><\/p>\n

The steel and aluminum tariffs signal broader trade conflicts ahead. Trump has already hinted at other potential tariff hikes, raising the possibility of prolonged disputes. The <\/span>U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement<\/span><\/a> (KORUS), which Trump renegotiated in his first term, could also come under renewed scrutiny.<\/span><\/p>\n

Under KORUS, either country can request a consultation on measures perceived as unfair.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s latest tariffs put South Korea in a dilemma. The immediate impact on steel and aluminum is severe, but the broader challenge lies in navigating an increasingly protectionist trade landscape.<\/span><\/p>\n

With South Korea\u2019s economic growth already fragile, the task of responding and adapting to growing U.S. trade protectionism will likely fall to the next government. But it remains to be seen if the new government will be able to overcome global challenges that are beyond Seoul\u2019s control.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by Alannah Hill<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Business & Economy<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

U.S. President Donald Trump\u2019s sweeping 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports mark a return to his aggressive protectionist trade policies, this time without exceptions. Unlike in 2018, when South Korea secured a quota-based exemption, the new tariffs apply uniformly, dealing a direct blow to South Korean steelmakers. 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