{"id":2208325,"date":"2025-02-10T15:46:23","date_gmt":"2025-02-10T06:46:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2208325"},"modified":"2025-02-11T15:08:07","modified_gmt":"2025-02-11T06:08:07","slug":"trump-and-ishiba-tighten-us-japan-alliance-as-south-korea-watches-on-warily","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2025\/02\/trump-and-ishiba-tighten-us-japan-alliance-as-south-korea-watches-on-warily\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump and Ishiba tighten US-Japan alliance as South Korea watches on warily"},"content":{"rendered":"

Japan has decisively positioned itself as the United States\u2019 most important Indo-Pacific ally under President Donald Trump, leaving South Korea in an increasingly reactive position on security, trade and economic strategy.<\/span><\/p>\n

The <\/span>U.S.-Japan summit<\/span><\/a> between President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba marked a critical shift in regional power dynamics, reinforcing Tokyo\u2019s role as Washington\u2019s top strategic partner in Asia.<\/span><\/p>\n

Japan is expanding its defense cooperation, military integration and economic ties with the U.S. at a scale that overshadows South Korea\u2019s current role in Washington\u2019s Indo-Pacific strategy.<\/span><\/p>\n

While Japan strengthens its influence, South Korea remains politically unstable, with President Yoon Suk-yeol\u2019s <\/span>impeachment ruling<\/span><\/a> pending and economic uncertainty mounting. This comes as Trump pledged on Monday new <\/span>tariffs on steel and aluminum<\/span><\/a>, a <\/span>reciprocal tariff strategy<\/span><\/a> targeting trade surplus nations and pushes for tighter economic cooperation with Japan in artificial intelligence (AI), semiconductors and energy security.<\/span><\/p>\n

As Japan cements its position as the U.S.\u2019 most trusted ally in the region, South Korea faces growing risks of strategic and economic marginalization \u2014 a reality that Seoul\u2019s next government will have to navigate in an increasingly competitive Indo-Pacific order.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Two American F-16s, an American B-52H, two South Korean F-15Ks and two 2 Japanese F-2s conduct their first joint air exercise in the overlapping Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) of South Korea and Japan, south of the Korean Peninsula, Oct. 22, 2023 | Image: United States Air Force<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

JAPAN\u2019S GROWING ROLE IN U.S. REGIONAL SECURITY<\/b><\/p>\n

While Ishiba did not mention his long-proposed \u201c<\/span>Asian NATO<\/span><\/a>\u201d during his talks with Trump, their meeting succeeded in strengthening Japan\u2019s position as a key player in U.S. regional defense strategy, signaling Tokyo\u2019s willingness to assume a greater security role.<\/span><\/p>\n

This reflects a broader U.S. effort to delegate more regional security responsibilities to its allies while maintaining deterrence against China and North Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n

Expansion of U.S. military presence in Japan<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

The U.S. military presence in Japan\u2019s southwest islands will expand under new agreements, enhancing Japan\u2019s role in deterring Chinese military actions in the East China Sea. Trump and Ishiba also agreed to enhance joint command-and-control structures, signaling deeper military integration.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, this development does not fundamentally alter the balance of military coordination between the U.S. and its two allies. South Korea\u2019s Combined Forces Command ensures a high level of operational integration with U.S. forces, while the <\/span>Nuclear Consultative Group<\/span><\/a> reinforces strategic alignment.<\/span><\/p>\n

U.S. commitment to Japan\u2019s defense and the Senkaku Islands<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Trump reaffirmed that Article V of the <\/span>U.S.-Japan mutual defense treaty<\/span><\/a> applies to the Senkaku Islands, reinforcing Washington\u2019s opposition to any attempt by China to alter the status quo. China argues that the islands, which it refers to as the Diaoyu Islands, fall under its territory.<\/span><\/p>\n

With trilateral <\/span>U.S.-ROK-Japan security cooperation<\/span><\/a> continuing to deepen, South Korean naval forces may find themselves participating in joint military exercises that include scenarios involving the defense of the Senkaku Islands. This could create diplomatic friction with China, which has strongly opposed any moves that it perceives as bolstering Japan\u2019s territorial claims.<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korea\u2019s shifting security position<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

South Korea remains firmly within the trilateral security framework, but Tokyo\u2019s bilateral defense alignment with Washington is deepening, suggesting that Washington increasingly views Japan as its primary Indo-Pacific security partner.<\/span><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, South Korean officials have not yet met with their U.S. counterparts amid the political uncertainty in Seoul and potential future policy shifts under a new government.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Samsung workers present their semiconductors, June 30, 2022 | Image: Samsung<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

U.S.-JAPAN ECONOMIC COOPERATION AND SOUTH KOREA\u2019S CHALLENGES<\/b><\/p>\n

Japan\u2019s $1 trillion investment pledge to the U.S.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Ishiba\u2019s pledge to increase Japanese investment in the U.S. to $1 trillion significantly enhances Tokyo\u2019s economic leverage in Washington. The U.S. increasingly views Japan not only as a defense ally but also as a key economic and technological partner, particularly in high-tech sectors such as AI, semiconductors and advanced manufacturing.<\/span><\/p>\n

This raises concerns for South Korea, which has frequently positioned itself as a leading U.S. technology partner. For instance, the Yoon administration was quick to align with the U.S. <\/span>CHIPS Act<\/span><\/a> and participate in the <\/span>Indo-Pacific Economic Framework<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, unlike Japan, Seoul has yet to offer a similarly large-scale economic commitment to the U.S., potentially leaving it with less influence in Washington\u2019s future trade and industrial policy decisions.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s steel and aluminum tariffs: Impact on South Korea vs. Japan<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s new 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports will have disproportionate effects on South Korea compared to Japan. South Korea has been one of the largest exporters of steel to the U.S., and while it previously negotiated <\/span>export quotas<\/span><\/a> to avoid tariffs under Trump\u2019s first-term trade policies, the latest tariffs could still hit ROK steelmakers harder than their Japanese counterparts.<\/span><\/p>\n

Japan may be in a better position to negotiate exemptions, particularly given the deepening economic and security ties affirmed during the Trump-Ishiba summit. In contrast, South Korea, lacking high-level political engagement due to its leadership crisis, risks being on the receiving end of broader trade restrictions.<\/span><\/p>\n

With the country\u2019s construction sector still <\/span>struggling to recover<\/span><\/a>, South Korea\u2019s steel industry is dependent on exports and any additional U.S. tariffs may lead to significant decreases in revenue and layoffs.<\/span><\/p>\n

Reciprocal tariffs: How South Korea faces a higher risk than Japan<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s reciprocal tariff policy, aimed at countries with trade surpluses against the U.S., puts South Korea at risk of further trade disputes. With South Korea consistently running a large surplus with the U.S., it is a likely target for additional tariffs on key exports such as automobiles, electronics and machinery.<\/span><\/p>\n

While Japan also runs a trade surplus with the U.S., its strategic security commitments and economic investments in the U.S. may give it greater negotiating leverage in tariff discussions. This raises concerns that South Korea could face higher trade barriers without the same level of economic bargaining power.<\/span><\/p>\n

Technology and supply chain competition<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Japan\u2019s deeper integration into U.S.-led semiconductor and AI supply chains could also sideline South Korea in future trade negotiations. With Washington and Tokyo committing to co-developing key technologies, South Korea risks losing its leverage in shaping supply chain frameworks as Washington prioritizes deeper cooperation with Japan.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Citizens demonstrate in front of the National Assembly for Yoon\u2019s impeachment and the ruling People Power Party\u2019s \u201clegal disbandment,\u201d Dec. 14, 2024 | Image: Korea Pro<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

SOUTH KOREA\u2019S POLITICAL AND STRATEGIC UNCERTAINTY<\/b><\/p>\n

Political vacuum in Seoul amid Yoon\u2019s impeachment ruling<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

With South Korea\u2019s Constitutional Court set to rule on President Yoon Suk-yeol\u2019s impeachment in the coming weeks, the country is facing a leadership vacuum at a critical moment for Indo-Pacific diplomacy. Without a clear government strategy, Seoul risks losing influence in regional security and economic policymaking just as the U.S. and Japan solidify their long-term partnership.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lee Jae-myung\u2019s shifting stance on Japan<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

South Korea\u2019s leading opposition candidate, Lee Jae-myung, recently <\/span>softened his stance<\/span><\/a> on Japan\u2019s military expansion, a notable reversal from his previous nationalist-leaning positions. For instance, Lee previously opposed <\/span>military cooperation<\/span><\/a> with Tokyo, <\/span>stating<\/span><\/a> in 2023 that it could pave the way for Japanese troops on Korean soil.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lee\u2019s sudden reversal suggests that South Korea\u2019s political leadership is already adapting to Japan\u2019s rising influence, but it remains unclear whether a new administration would push for closer cooperation with Japan or pursue a more independent regional policy.<\/span><\/p>\n

THE ROAD AHEAD FOR SOUTH KOREA<\/b><\/p>\n

The Trump-Ishiba summit cemented Japan\u2019s position as Washington\u2019s key in the region, raising significant strategic and economic implications for South Korea. While the U.S.-Japan alliance strengthens, South Korea\u2019s role in regional security and trade policy remains uncertain.<\/span><\/p>\n

With Tokyo and Washington deepening their security and economic ties, South Korea\u2019s next government will need to navigate a regional order increasingly shaped by U.S.-Japan interests. The degree to which Seoul can maintain its influence in both defense and economic policymaking will be determined by how it positions itself in the coming months \u2014 a challenge that will only intensify as Trump implements new trade policies and military realignments.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by Alannah Hill<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Business & Economy<\/span><\/a>Defense & Security<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Japan has decisively positioned itself as the United States\u2019 most important Indo-Pacific ally under President Donald Trump, leaving South Korea in an increasingly reactive position on security, trade and economic strategy. 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