{"id":2208200,"date":"2025-02-03T16:52:28","date_gmt":"2025-02-03T07:52:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2208200"},"modified":"2025-03-25T13:43:01","modified_gmt":"2025-03-25T04:43:01","slug":"south-korea-in-january-2025-a-month-in-review-and-whats-ahead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2025\/02\/south-korea-in-january-2025-a-month-in-review-and-whats-ahead\/","title":{"rendered":"South Korea in January 2025: A month in review and what\u2019s ahead"},"content":{"rendered":"
About Month In Review<\/strong><\/p>\n
<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n
Every month, Korea Pro delivers an authoritative analytical review of developments in South Korea, offering <\/em>comprehensive coverage of political, economic and strategic shifts that shape the peninsula. Korea Pro’s Month in Review serves as an essential resource for policymakers, business leaders and analysts seeking to navigate South Korea\u2019s quickly-changing dynamics and stay ahead of the curve.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n
This detailed report examines key events from the previous month, providing actionable intelligence and expert analysis across six critical domains: politics and governance, economy and finance, trade and business, foreign relations, defense and security and society and culture.<\/em><\/p>\n
Our team of specialists combines deep local knowledge with strategic insight to deliver nuanced analysis of both immediate developments and long-term trends. Each section features thorough examination of primary indicators, risk assessments and forward-looking analysis, complemented by data and other primary source information. The report concludes with a succinct outlook for the month ahead, identifying crucial events and emerging trends that will influence South Korea\u2019s trajectory.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
\nTable of Contents <\/span><\/div>\n01<\/span>Executive Summary<\/span><\/span><\/a>02<\/span>Politics and Governance<\/span><\/span><\/a>03<\/span>Economy and Finance<\/span><\/span><\/a>04<\/span>Business and Trade<\/span><\/span><\/a>05<\/span>Foreign Relations<\/span><\/span><\/a>06<\/span>Defense and Security<\/span><\/span><\/a>07<\/span>Society and Culture<\/span><\/span><\/a>08<\/span>The Month Ahead<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/p>\n
\nExecutive Summary<\/h4>\n
Illustration of young protestors in Seoul | Image: Korea Pro<\/p><\/div>\n
In South Korean <\/span>domestic politics and government <\/b>in January, President Yoon Suk-yeol became the first incumbent president to be arrested and indicted, following his December martial law declaration. The Constitutional Court began impeachment proceedings, while right-wing protests turned violent in Seoul. Despite the turmoil, the conservative People Power Party (PPP) is gaining in the polls, flipping the Democratic Party\u2019s (DP) lead in some polls.<\/span><\/p>\n
South Korea\u2019s <\/span>economy and finance<\/b> showed mixed signals this month, with the Bank of Korea (BOK) maintaining its 3% benchmark rate amid global volatility and domestic political uncertainty. The central bank lowered GDP growth forecasts to 1.6 to 1.7% for 2025, down from 2% in 2024. While consumer confidence rebounded slightly to 91.2 after a major drop in December, it remained below the long-term average, reflecting persistent pessimism.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n
In <\/span>trade and business, <\/b>South Korean exports faced challenges in January, with overall exports declining year-on-year despite a surge in semiconductor exports. While South Korea secured an AI technology export exemption from the outgoing Biden administration, the new Trump administration\u2019s \u201cAmerica First\u201d policies poses risks. Notable developments included Samsung and LG considering relocating their manufacturing plants from Mexico to the U.S., and the resolution of a nuclear power plant dispute between <\/span>Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power (KHNP) and<\/span> Westinghouse Electric.<\/span><\/p>\n
In <\/span>foreign relations, <\/b>South Korea focused on managing its alliance with the U.S. and preparing for shifting policies under the Trump administration. Trump\u2019s defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, and Trump himself described North Korea as a \u201cnuclear power,\u201d which reignited nuclear armament debates in Seoul. Meanwhile, talks with Japan continued despite Yoon\u2019s impeachment and arrest. South Korea also opened an embassy in Cuba, marking a milestone after the two countries established diplomatic ties last year.<\/span><\/p>\n
In <\/span>defense and security<\/b>, South Korea\u2019s military underwent significant shakeup following December’s martial law incident, with four senior commanders dismissed. Concurrently, the country faced major cybersecurity challenges, including a court system data breach and North Korea\u2019s $600 million cryptocurrency theft. Meanwhile, the country advanced its defense capabilities with L-SAM-II missile development and potential K-9 Howitzer exports to Vietnam.<\/span><\/p>\n
In <\/span>society and culture, <\/b>families of the Jeju Air crash victims called for a transparent investigation into the tragedy. Meanwhile, South Korea announced healthcare reforms targeting non-reimbursed treatments to sustain the National Health Insurance Service, while labor unions protested increases in foreign worker visas for the shipbuilding industry. Also in January, Instagram introduced teen safety features in the country.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n
Edited by John Lee<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n
\n\nPro-Yoon protestors hold up \u201cStop the Steal\u201d signs, Jan. 19, 2025 | Image: Korea Pro<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\nPolitics and Governance<\/h4>\n
KEY DEVELOPMENTS<\/b><\/em><\/p>\n
Arrest of President Yoon Suk-yeol:<\/b> In January, President Yoon Suk-yeol became the first incumbent South Korean president to be <\/span>arrested<\/span><\/a> and indicted. Yoon\u2019s supporters and Presidential Security Service (PSS) agents initially attempted to block investigators from arresting him, but Yoon was eventually taken into custody on Jan. 15.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n
Escalation of right-wing protests: <\/b>Between Jan. 18 and 19, protests by extreme right-wing groups erupted into <\/span>violence<\/span><\/a>. Yoon\u2019s supporters clashed with law enforcement in Seoul, resulting in multiple injuries, arrests and damages to court property after protesters stormed the Seoul Western District Court.\u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n
Impeachment proceedings kick off:<\/b> With eight of nine justices now in place, the Constitutional Court began impeachment trial proceedings on Jan. 14. Planned plea dates are Jan. 14, 16, 21, 23, Feb. 3, 6,11 and 13. The court will determine whether to reinstate or permanently remove Yoon from office. Yoon attended the trial in person for the first time on <\/span>Jan. 21<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n
PUBLIC SENTIMENT<\/b><\/p>\n
In January, public sentiment trends saw <\/span>significant<\/span><\/a> shifts.<\/span><\/p>\n
Party approval rate: <\/b>Overall, the conservative base consolidated throughout the month. The PPP consistently gained support in all three of South Korea\u2019s major polls \u2014 <\/span>Gallup Korea<\/span><\/a>, <\/span>Realmeter<\/span><\/a> and the <\/span>National Barometer Survey<\/span><\/a> (NBS).<\/span><\/p>\n
\n
- Gallup Korea: <\/b>The PPP\u2019s support went up from 24% to 38%, while the DP\u2019s went down from 48% to 40%. After a brief flip in the third week of January, the <\/span>DP regained its lead, but within the margin of error <\/b>of\u00a0 \u00b13.1%p.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
- NBS: <\/b>The PPP\u2019s support went up from 26% to 38% while the DP\u2019s went down from 39% to 36%. The <\/span>PPP maintained its lead<\/b> after the third week, <\/span>outside the margin<\/b> of error of \u00b13.1%p.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
- Realmeter: <\/b>The<\/span> PPP\u2019s support went up from 30.6% at the end of December to 45.4% at the end of January. On the other hand, the DP\u2019s support went down from 45.8% at the end of December to 41.7% at the end of January. The <\/span>PPP maintained its lead<\/b> after the third week, <\/span>outside the margin<\/b> of error of \u00b13.1%p.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Presidential approval rate: <\/b>Three major pollsters excluded questions about Yoon\u2019s job performance (approval rate) after the National Assembly\u2019s impeachment led to his suspension, but some minor polls showed Yoon\u2019s approval ratings exceeding 40% post-martial law. Experts caution against interpreting these as direct approval ratings, suggesting they reflect the size of conservative support instead.<\/span><\/p>\n
Impeachment sentiment polls: <\/b>At the end of January, Gallup Korea and NBS showed that the majority of South Koreans believe the Constitutional Court should remove Yoon from office. However, anti-impeachment sentiment gradually grew throughout the month.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n
Regime change sentiment: <\/b>Although support for regime change is higher than support for maintaining the status quo, support for the former consistently went down throughout the month. A Realmeter poll showed that support for a DP presidency went down from 60.4% to 49.1%, while support for the PPP to retain the presidency went up from 32.3% to 46%. Gallup Korea and NBS showed similar results.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n
PARTY POLITICS<\/b><\/p>\n
Changes in conservative party leadership: <\/b>The PPP underwent leadership changes amid internal divisions over Yoon\u2019s impeachment. Former unification minister and five-term lawmaker Kwon Young-se took charge of the interim leadership committee. However, pro-Yoon lawmakers, including former party leader Kim Gi-hyeon, <\/span>rallied<\/span><\/a> around Yoon.<\/span><\/p>\n
DP\u2019s Lee Jae-myung faces more trials: <\/b>On Jan. 23, the Seoul High Court began main opposition leader Lee Jae-myung\u2019s <\/span>appeals<\/span><\/a> trial for violating the Public Official Election Act. The High Court plans to hold a final argument session on Feb. 26, with <\/span>media<\/span><\/a> expecting<\/span><\/a> a ruling by late March or early April. However, Lee in late January has sought a constitutional review of the election law, which, if accepted by the Constitutional Court, could delay proceedings.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n
Minor opposition party feud:<\/b> The New Reform Party is experiencing internal strife, with leader Heo Eun-ah and lawmaker Lee Jun-seok engaging in a public dispute over party governance.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n
Cho Kuk arrested: <\/b>Following the imprisonment of Rebuilding Korea Party founder and leader, Cho Kuk, in late December, <\/span>Kim Sun-min<\/span><\/a> assumed the role of acting party leader. Cho\u2019s vacated parliamentary seat was filled by <\/span>Paik Sun-hee<\/span><\/a>, a birth rate and gender expert.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n
LEGISLATIVE UPDATES<\/b><\/p>\n
Amendment to the Aviation Business Act: <\/b>Passed on <\/span>Jan. 8<\/span><\/a>, this legislation enhances protections for airline passengers, including stricter accountability for delays and cancellations caused by unforeseen circumstances. The bill also mandates regular audits of fare transparency and advertising accuracy. The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport will oversee enforcement. It was sent to the government to deliberate on Jan. 17.<\/span><\/p>\n
Corporate Research and Development Support Act: <\/b>Passed on <\/span>Jan. 8<\/span><\/a>, this act separates corporate research and development (R&D) provisions from broader laws to improve management and incentivize innovation. It introduces clearer definitions for corporate research institutes and enhanced support for research personnel and infrastructure.<\/span><\/p>\n
Special Prosecutorial Investigation against Yoon: <\/b>Passed after modification on <\/span>Jan. 17<\/span><\/a>, this law establishes a special prosecutor to investigate Yoon\u2019s martial law declaration. The special prosecutor has broad authority, including appointing up to 60 investigative staff and 30 prosecutors. However, during deliberation at the plenary session, the clauses about Yoon\u2019s alleged crimes of inciting foreign aggression (\uc678\ud658\uc758 \uc8c4) was deleted. Acting President Choi vetoed the bill at the end of January. will deliberate whether to veto it after the Lunar New Year holidays.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n
GOVERNANCE<\/b><\/p>\n
Choi Sang-mok continues as acting president:<\/b> Following the impeachment of both Yoon and former Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, finance minister Choi Sang-mok assumed the role of acting president at the end of December. This month, despite vetoing several bills, Choi avoided impeachment.<\/span><\/p>\n
LOOKING AHEAD<\/b><\/p>\n
In February, South Korea faces several critical moments that will shape its political trajectory. The Constitutional Court’s plea dates for Yoon’s impeachment trial could permanently alter the country\u2019s leadership. Many legal experts expect a ruling by late February or March given the case\u2019s urgency, although Yoon\u2019s continued silence may drag the trial further.<\/span><\/p>\n
All eyes will be on public opinion polls in February as they could preview voter sentiment ahead of a potential presidential election. If Yoon is removed from office, South Korea would need to hold a new presidential election within 60 days of the Court\u2019s ruling, making the narrowing gap between the PPP and DP support increasingly significant.<\/span><\/p>\n
For the bureaucracy, February presents unprecedented challenges as ministries must continue operations while preparing for multiple scenarios \u2014 either Yoon\u2019s reinstatement or removal.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n
Edited by John Lee<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n
\n\nKorea Exchange, July 25, 2024 | Image: Korea Pro<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\nEconomy and Finance<\/h4>\n
KEY DEVELOPMENTS<\/b><\/em><\/p>\n
Interest rates held steady: <\/b>The BOK <\/span>maintained<\/span><\/a> its benchmark interest rate at 3% in January, citing heightened global volatility and domestic political risks. GDP growth forecasts have been lowered to <\/span>1.6 to 1.7%<\/span> for 2025, down from 2.2% in 2024, reflecting weakening domestic demand and slowing exports. The central bank emphasized financial stability, given external pressures and exchange rate volatility.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n
Exchange rate volatility: <\/b>The South Korean won experienced fluctuations as global bond yields climbed and the U.S. dollar strengthened. Concerns about potential monetary tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve and domestic political uncertainties further complicated the BOK\u2019s policy options. Discussions have begun around targeted interventions to curb speculative activity and stabilize the currency.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n
Fiscal reforms:<\/b> The government unveiled <\/span>2025 tax reforms<\/span><\/a>, focusing on R&D tax credits for strategic industries like semiconductors and hydrogen energy. Incentives for foreign investors and middle-class households are part of a broader strategy to balance industrial growth with domestic stability. However, political divisions over fiscal priorities have delayed broader economic measures, raising investor concerns.<\/span><\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n
PUBLIC SENTIMENT<\/b><\/p>\n
Consumer confidence rebounds but remains fragile: <\/b>The <\/span>Composite Consumer Sentiment Index<\/span><\/a> rose to 91.2 in January, recovering from a low of 88.2 in December. Despite the uptick, the index remains well below the long-term average of 100, indicating persistent consumer pessimism.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n
Optimism about future economic conditions drove the gain, but sentiment around current conditions remained weak, with an index score of 51. Political uncertainty, including the Constitutional Court\u2019s pending ruling on President Yoon Suk-yeol\u2019s impeachment, has tempered consumer confidence.<\/span><\/p>\n
Inflation expectations easing slightly: <\/b>Inflation rose by 1.9% in Dec. 2024, driven by higher oil prices, but expectations for 2025 eased to 2.8%. Policymakers are closely monitoring energy prices and currency fluctuations to prevent inflationary pressures from eroding household purchasing power further.<\/span><\/p>\n
POLICY DECISIONS<\/b><\/p>\n
Infrastructure investments for long-term growth: <\/b>The government announced plans in Dec. 2024 to accelerate <\/span>