{"id":2208187,"date":"2025-01-31T18:07:36","date_gmt":"2025-01-31T09:07:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2208187"},"modified":"2025-01-31T18:07:36","modified_gmt":"2025-01-31T09:07:36","slug":"south-koreas-opposition-stumbles-as-conservative-support-surges","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2025\/01\/south-koreas-opposition-stumbles-as-conservative-support-surges\/","title":{"rendered":"South Korea\u2019s opposition stumbles as conservative support surges"},"content":{"rendered":"

Korea Pro\u2019s<\/span><\/i> analysis of January polling data from Gallup Korea, NBS and Realmeter shows that South Korea\u2019s ruling People Power Party (PPP) has gained significant political momentum amid impeachment proceedings against President Yoon Suk-yeol, with polling data showing a consolidation of conservative support.<\/span><\/p>\n

While the main opposition Democratic Party (DP) initially surged in approval following Yoon\u2019s martial law declaration, the political landscape has since shifted, with conservatives rallying around the ruling party.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The unexpected rise of labor minister <\/span>Kim Moon-soo<\/span><\/a> as a potential presidential contender further reflects the evolving dynamics within the conservative camp.<\/span><\/p>\n

RULING PARTY SURGES IN POLLS<\/b><\/p>\n

In January, the PPP saw a sharp rise in approval ratings across major polls, reversing its earlier decline against the DP. According to Gallup Korea, NBS and Realmeter, the conservative party trailed the opposition in late December and early January but overtook the DP by the third week of the month.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

This shift coincided with growing conservative mobilization following Yoon\u2019s arrest, as his supporters gathered outside his residence in protest.<\/span><\/p>\n

The DP\u2019s approval, which had surged in the wake of the impeachment announcement, gradually declined as the month progressed. While the party still maintained strong support among progressive voters, its advantage among centrists weakened.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

By the end of January, the PPP had either matched or exceeded DP support in several key polls, signaling a significant shift in political sentiment.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Several factors contributed to this turnaround. The impeachment crisis, coupled with heightened political polarization, drove conservative voters to rally behind the PPP. Although conservative protesters attempted to protect Yoon from arrest and later stormed the Seoul Western District Court, centrist voters\u2019 support for the PPP does not appear to have weakened.<\/span><\/p>\n

This increased centrist support for the PPP could reflect the public\u2019s perception that those conservatives were largely supporters of the far-right Liberty Unification Party, not the PPP.<\/span><\/p>\n

Additionally, the DP\u2019s continued focus on impeachment proceedings, particularly against former Prime Minister Han Duck-soo and other administration officials, as well as DP leader Lee Jae-myung\u2019s focus shifting toward his own presidential campaign may have alienated some moderate voters concerned about prolonged political instability.<\/span><\/p>\n

This trend was particularly evident among younger and middle-aged voters, whose shifting support led to a corresponding rise and fall in approval ratings for the PPP and DP, respectively.<\/span><\/p>\n

ANTI-IMPEACHMENT SENTIMENT GROWS<\/b><\/p>\n

As conservative support solidified, public opinion on Yoon\u2019s impeachment also evolved. Early January polling indicated overwhelming support for removing Yoon from office, driven by public outrage over his martial law declaration.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, as the initial sense of shock faded and the two parties started to battle over what to do next, opposition to impeachment gradually increased, particularly among voters over 50 and residents of conservative strongholds such as Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province.<\/span><\/p>\n

By the third week of January, as the PPP overtook the DP in party support, a parallel trend emerged in impeachment polling. Opposition to impeachment gained traction, with many respondents citing concerns over political and economic instability.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The PPP effectively framed the impeachment process as a politically motivated attack, reinforcing conservative unity and shifting public sentiment. Notably during this period, Yoon maintained communications with his base even after he was suspended from office. For instance, he wrote handwritten letters to his supporters, helping to further fortify conservative unity.<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite this shift, a majority of South Koreans still support Yoon\u2019s impeachment. The rise in anti-impeachment sentiment, therefore, reflects growing political polarization rather than a reassessment of Yoon\u2019s actions.<\/span><\/p>\n

This trend will likely lead to further political turbulence in February, with the conservative base expected to use the closing approval rating gap between the PPP and the DP to pressure the Constitutional Court to reject Yoon\u2019s impeachment.<\/span><\/p>\n

PRESIDENTIAL RACE LANDSCAPE SHIFTS<\/b><\/p>\n

Beyond immediate party support, the broader question of South Korea\u2019s political future has also seen notable shifts. Polling on whether the DP should take over the presidency from the PPP has shown a narrowing gap, with conservatives gaining ground.<\/span><\/p>\n

Realmeter polling even briefly showed majority support for a PPP presidency in the third week of January, though the DP regained a slight edge the following week.<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite these trends, centrist voters continue to lean toward the opposition. In Gallup Korea\u2019s fourth-week January survey, while overall support for a PPP or DP presidency was split by 40 to 50%, 60% of centrist respondents favored a DP-led government, compared to just 27% who supported continued conservative rule.<\/span><\/p>\n

The extent to which moderates shift in the coming months will be crucial in determining whether the PPP can maintain its momentum.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

YOUNG VOTERS AND POLLING NUANCES<\/b><\/p>\n

A notable trend in recent polling is the shifting preferences among younger and middle-aged voters. While South Korea\u2019s older population remains the bedrock of conservative support, January polling showed some movement among younger demographics.<\/span><\/p>\n

Some automated response system (ARS)-based surveys indicated a higher-than-expected level of PPP backing among younger respondents, particularly in historically progressive regions such as Gwangju and the Jeolla provinces.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, polling firms have warned against overinterpreting these results. Gallup Korea noted in its latest report that response rates for telephone surveys increased from 11.6% in November to 16.3% in January across both computer-assisted telephone interviewing and ARS surveys amid heightened political engagement.<\/span><\/p>\n

Gallup Korea cautioned that a higher response rate does not necessarily improve accuracy, as politically engaged individuals may be overrepresented if callback procedures are not properly managed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

YOON\u2019S DUBIOUS APPROVAL RATE<\/b><\/p>\n

Some minor polling companies continue to ask respondents to rate Yoon\u2019s performance, with some surveys showing his support exceeds 40% despite his impeachment and arrest.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, these numbers also likely reflect conservatives\u2019 consolidation. Further, questions remain about those polling companies\u2019 methodologies and biases.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Notably, the country\u2019s three largest polling companies have not included questions about Yoon\u2019s performance since he was suspended from office. The three companies justified their decision by explaining that it is unrealistic to gauge the president\u2019s approval rating while he remains suspended from his duties, preventing him from overseeing state affairs.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, other questions provide insight into the public\u2019s perception of the president. For instance, NBS\u2019 question about Yoon\u2019s handling of the impeachment process resulted in a 33% approval rate and 59% disapproval rate.<\/span><\/p>\n

These numbers suggest that polls indicating Yoon\u2019s growing approval rate may be overstated.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Kim Moon-soo as Gyeonggi Governor in 2011 | Image: Gyeonggi Province Office (Nov. 2011)<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

KIM MOON-SOO\u2019S UNEXPECTED RISE<\/b><\/p>\n

One of the most unexpected developments in South Korean politics has been the emergence of Kim Moon-soo as a serious conservative presidential contender. Previously a marginal figure, Kim\u2019s support surged in January, rising from 2% in late December to 11% by the end of the month in Gallup Korea\u2019s polling.<\/span><\/p>\n

NBS data similarly recorded his rapid ascent, with Kim securing 13% support in the third week of January, placing him second behind DP leader Lee Jae-myung, who scored 28%. Notably, NBS didn\u2019t include Kim in its surveys about potential presidential contenders before its third-week poll considering his previous marginal support.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kim\u2019s rise appears to be driven by his hardline stance during the impeachment crisis. Unlike other Cabinet members who sought to distance themselves from Yoon\u2019s martial law declaration, Kim refused to apologize at the National Assembly, a moment that went viral on social media.<\/span><\/p>\n

His staunch opposition to Yoon\u2019s impeachment has solidified his image as an unyielding conservative stalwart, helping him outpace more established figures such as Hong Joon-pyo, Oh Se-hoon and Han Dong-hoon.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, whether Kim\u2019s momentum is sustainable remains uncertain. His sudden popularity may be a byproduct of the impeachment crisis rather than a long-term political shift as conservative voters seek a leader that they can rally behind and Lee Jae-myung continues to lead in the polls.<\/span><\/p>\n

Expanding his appeal beyond the conservative base will be crucial if he intends to mount a serious presidential bid. However, the numerous controversial positions he has taken in the past, including seeking a <\/span>photo-op<\/span><\/a> with former South Korean dictator Chun Doo-hwan <\/span>ahead<\/span><\/a> of the 2016 general elections, will likely alienate moderates.<\/span><\/p>\n

POLITICAL TURBULENCE AHEAD<\/b><\/p>\n

The impeachment crisis has reshaped South Korea\u2019s political landscape, strengthening the conservative base while exacerbating partisan divisions. While the DP retains significant support, particularly among centrists, the PPP\u2019s resurgence signals a competitive political environment ahead of future elections.<\/span><\/p>\n

The coming months will be crucial in determining whether the PPP can sustain its momentum or if the DP can reclaim lost ground. With impeachment proceedings ongoing and economic uncertainties looming, public sentiment is likely to remain volatile.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by John Lee<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Culture & Society<\/span><\/a>Domestic Politics<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Korea Pro\u2019s analysis of January polling data from Gallup Korea, NBS and Realmeter shows that South Korea\u2019s ruling People Power Party (PPP) has gained significant political momentum amid impeachment proceedings against President Yoon Suk-yeol, with polling data showing a consolidation of conservative support. While the main opposition Democratic Party (DP) initially surged in approval following […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10407,"featured_media":2208188,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[25,27],"class_list":["post-2208187","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-culture-society","tag-domestic-politics"],"yoast_head":"\nSouth Korea\u2019s opposition stumbles as conservative support surges - Korea Pro<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2025\/01\/south-koreas-opposition-stumbles-as-conservative-support-surges\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"South Korea\u2019s opposition stumbles as conservative support surges - Korea Pro\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Korea Pro\u2019s analysis of January polling data from Gallup Korea, NBS and Realmeter shows that South Korea\u2019s ruling People Power Party (PPP) has gained significant political momentum amid impeachment proceedings against President Yoon Suk-yeol, with polling data showing a consolidation of conservative support. 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