{"id":2208049,"date":"2025-01-21T15:18:10","date_gmt":"2025-01-21T06:18:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2208049"},"modified":"2025-01-22T15:10:42","modified_gmt":"2025-01-22T06:10:42","slug":"trump-returns-to-power-with-policies-that-could-strain-us-south-korea-relations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2025\/01\/trump-returns-to-power-with-policies-that-could-strain-us-south-korea-relations\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump returns to power with policies that could strain US-South Korea relations"},"content":{"rendered":"

Donald Trump\u2019s return to the Oval Office comes with immediate implications for South Korea, a key U.S. ally facing mounting security, economic and diplomatic challenges. Trump\u2019s inaugural actions and statements, including his \u201c<\/span>America First\u201d policy directive<\/span><\/a>, proposed trade tariffs and remarks on North Korea, signal a recalibration of U.S. foreign policy that could impact South Korea\u2019s economic and national security.<\/span><\/p>\n

RENEWED FOCUS ON TRADE<\/b><\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s America First <\/span>trade memorandum<\/span><\/a> emphasizes a return to the tariff-centric approach that characterized his first term, potentially placing South Korea\u2019s export-driven economy at risk.<\/span><\/p>\n

His comments about imposing tariffs on Canada and Mexico for border and fentanyl-related issues highlight his willingness to use trade policy as a blunt instrument, a tactic South Korea is familiar with.<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korea\u2019s inclusion on the U.S. Treasury\u2019s \u201c<\/span>Monitoring List<\/span><\/a>\u201d for currency practices adds to its vulnerability. Although it has avoided designation as a currency manipulator, its persistent current account surplus and large <\/span>trade surplus<\/span><\/a> with the U.S. may make it a target under Trump\u2019s administration, particularly if economic imbalances widen.<\/span><\/p>\n

A formal designation would bring reputational harm and could trigger punitive measures, further straining bilateral trade.<\/span><\/p>\n

Additionally, the likely review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement in July 2026 could set a precedent for Trump to revisit the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement (<\/span>KORUS<\/span><\/a>). While KORUS underwent <\/span>renegotiation<\/span><\/a> during Trump\u2019s first term, his administration could push for deeper concessions, especially in the auto and <\/span>agricultural<\/span><\/a> sectors, areas where South Korea has consistently been scrutinized.<\/span><\/p>\n

Further, Trump stated during his inauguration address that his administration will establish a new \u201cexternal revenue service\u201d (ERS) to collect tariffs. At first glance, this pledge appears unfeasible as the U.S. cannot enforce tariff collection on imports outside of its borders. Such an attempt would also likely contravene World Trade Organization rules, which prohibit extraterritorial taxation and discriminatory practices in international trade.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, the introduction of an ERS, even if courts strike it down later, could amplify operational costs for South Korean businesses. For instance, increased scrutiny at customs and heightened compliance requirements could disrupt supply chains and erode South Korea\u2019s competitive advantage in key industries like automotive and electronics.<\/span><\/p>\n

Another critical area is the looming digital trade battle. The Trump administration will likely scrutinize South Korea\u2019s proposed digital platform regulations, which critics argue disproportionately affect U.S. tech firms like Google and Amazon.<\/span><\/p>\n

A <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i> analysis<\/span><\/a> from Nov. 2024 highlighted the risk of a U.S.-South Korea digital trade dispute, with U.S. companies potentially leveraging the U.S. Trade Representative to pressure Seoul into revising its policies.<\/span><\/p>\n

This issue is emblematic of broader tensions in the U.S.-South Korea economic relationship, where technological sovereignty and market access are increasingly contested. South Korea\u2019s ambitions to regulate foreign tech giants and assert greater control over its digital economy may clash with Trump\u2019s America First agenda.<\/span><\/p>\n

A protracted dispute could lead to retaliatory measures, jeopardizing South Korea\u2019s tech exports and its aspirations to become a global digital hub.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

President Donald Trump meets with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at the Demilitarized Zone, June 30, 2019 | Image: White House<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

RISK OF ISOLATION ON NORTH KOREA<\/b><\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s <\/span>remarks<\/span><\/a> on North Korean leader Kim Jong Un \u2014 \u201cHe\u2019ll be happy to see I\u2019m coming back\u201d \u2014 signal a possible revival of personal diplomacy. Although talks between the two leaders during Trump\u2019s first presidency later broke down, this approach initially led to the historic <\/span>Singapore Summit<\/span><\/a> in 2018. Notably, then-South Korean President Moon Jae-in was an <\/span>integral part<\/span><\/a> of the summit meetings between Trump and Kim.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, a resumption of personal diplomacy between Trump and Kim this time around will likely exclude South Korea. Pyongyang has abandoned the reunification of the peninsula as a national policy goal and labeled South Korea as an \u201c<\/span>absolute enemy<\/span><\/a>.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Seoul will likely find itself sidelined in renewed U.S.-North Korea talks, eroding the ROK\u2019s ability to influence negotiations on denuclearization or inter-Korean relations.<\/span><\/p>\n

Of greater concern is Trump\u2019s acknowledgment of North Korea as a nuclear power during remarks upon his return to the Oval Office. While the off-the-cuff comment does not amount to a de jure recognition of the DPRK as a nuclear-weapons state, even rhetorical shifts could have significant implications for Seoul.<\/span><\/p>\n

Notably, international sanctions against Pyongyang have already weakened significantly, given the <\/span>dissolution of the Panel of Experts<\/span><\/a> following Moscow\u2019s decision to veto its renewal at the U.N. Security Council last year.<\/span><\/p>\n

If Trump pursues unilateral concessions to secure a symbolic win with North Korea, such as proposing nuclear arms control negotiations, it could embolden Pyongyang to demand sanctions relief without significant denuclearization measures. This scenario would severely undermine South Korea\u2019s security and heighten the threat of North Korean provocations.<\/span><\/p>\n

For instance, North Korea could use its nuclear weapons, or the threat of their use, to neutralize South Korea\u2019s superiority in conventional weapons and blackmail Seoul for concessions. Along with Trump\u2019s America First policy, Seoul must also contend with the possibility of reduced U.S. military support.<\/span><\/p>\n

Given Trump\u2019s criticism of traditional alliances, it remains to be seen if the U.S. will still offer extended deterrence for the ROK\u2019s defense in the event of North Korean aggression.<\/span><\/p>\n

THE CHINA FACTOR<\/b><\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s hawkish stance on China could further complicate South Korea\u2019s geopolitical positioning. His administration\u2019s focus on strengthening Biden\u2019s export and trade restrictions against China could pressure South Korea to align more closely with U.S. policies, potentially alienating its largest trading partner.<\/span><\/p>\n

The risk of <\/span>secondary sanctions<\/span><\/a> on South Korean firms conducting business with Chinese entities cannot be ruled out. Trump\u2019s proposed tariffs and measures to counter China\u2019s alleged economic malpractices might extend to South Korean companies with significant exposure to the Chinese market.<\/span><\/p>\n

In <\/span>2023<\/span><\/a>, about 40% of Samsung\u2019s NAND flash memory chips came from its Chinese facility in Xian, while SK Hynix produced 50% of its DRAM and between 20 to 30% of its NAND flash memory chips in Wuxi and Dalian, respectively.<\/span><\/p>\n

Seoul\u2019s dependence on U.S. security guarantees also leaves it vulnerable to shifts in U.S. foreign policy priorities. Trump\u2019s transactional approach to alliances could mean that South Korea\u2019s strategic value is assessed primarily through economic contributions, undermining the long-standing security partnership.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

President Donald Trump signs an executive order, Jan. 20, 2025 | Image: White House<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

OPPORTUNITIES AMID UNCERTAINTY<\/b><\/p>\n

Despite the challenges, Trump\u2019s return to power may present opportunities for South Korea. His administration\u2019s prioritization of energy security and critical minerals could open avenues for collaboration, particularly in the <\/span>development of liquefied natural gas (LNG)<\/span><\/a> and rare earth supply chains.<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite Trump\u2019s decision to <\/span>withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Agreement<\/span><\/a> once more, South Korea\u2019s expertise in green technologies and energy infrastructure positions it as a potential partner in Trump\u2019s drive for U.S. energy dominance.<\/span><\/p>\n

Moreover, Trump\u2019s expressed interest in collaborating with South Korea to revitalize the U.S. <\/span>shipbuilding industry<\/span><\/a> could offer Seoul a chance to renegotiate bilateral trade terms more favorable to its industries, provided it navigates the process skillfully.<\/span><\/p>\n

Strengthening economic ties with other U.S. allies, such as Japan and Australia, may also help mitigate the risks associated with Trump\u2019s protectionist policies.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s return to the White House introduces uncertainty for South Korea. His early actions and rhetoric signal potential shifts in trade, security and diplomacy that could redefine the U.S.-South Korea alliance. However, opportunities also exist.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by Alannah Hill<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Business & Economy<\/span><\/a>Defense & Security<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Donald Trump\u2019s return to the Oval Office comes with immediate implications for South Korea, a key U.S. ally facing mounting security, economic and diplomatic challenges. Trump\u2019s inaugural actions and statements, including his \u201cAmerica First\u201d policy directive, proposed trade tariffs and remarks on North Korea, signal a recalibration of U.S. foreign policy that could impact South […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10407,"featured_media":2208050,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[24,26,28],"class_list":["post-2208049","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-business-economy","tag-defense-security","tag-inter-korean-foreign-relations"],"yoast_head":"\nTrump returns to power with policies that could strain US-South Korea relations - Korea Pro<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2025\/01\/trump-returns-to-power-with-policies-that-could-strain-us-south-korea-relations\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Trump returns to power with policies that could strain US-South Korea relations - Korea Pro\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Donald Trump\u2019s return to the Oval Office comes with immediate implications for South Korea, a key U.S. ally facing mounting security, economic and diplomatic challenges. 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