{"id":2207913,"date":"2025-01-10T18:34:11","date_gmt":"2025-01-10T09:34:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2207913"},"modified":"2025-01-10T18:34:11","modified_gmt":"2025-01-10T09:34:11","slug":"impeachment-aftermath-fuels-surprising-support-for-south-koreas-ruling-party","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2025\/01\/impeachment-aftermath-fuels-surprising-support-for-south-koreas-ruling-party\/","title":{"rendered":"Impeachment aftermath fuels surprising support for South Korea\u2019s ruling party"},"content":{"rendered":"

In the wake of President Yoon Suk-yeol\u2019s <\/span>impeachment<\/span><\/a>, South Korea\u2019s ruling People Power Party (PPP) has defied expectations, recovering public support and reshaping the narrative ahead of a <\/span>fast-tracked presidential election<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

This resurgence, which has brought the PPP within the margin of error against the main opposition Democratic Party (DP), underscores the high-stakes nature of the upcoming election and its potential to reshape South Korea\u2019s political dynamics.<\/span><\/p>\n

The impeachment motion initially triggered a surge in DP support to its highest level since the Yoon administration took office. However, the PPP has rebounded strongly across key demographics, highlighting the fluidity of South Korea\u2019s voter sentiment.<\/span><\/p>\n

SHIFTING POLL NUMBERS<\/b><\/p>\n

Gallup Korea\u2019s latest <\/span>survey<\/span><\/a>, conducted with a 16.3% response rate, sees the PPP garnering 34% support, trailing the DP by just two percentage points under the margin of error. Similarly, the National Barometer Survey (NBS), which used live telephone interviews and achieved a 22.8% response rate, <\/span>reports<\/span><\/a> PPP support at 32% and DP support at 36%.<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite support for Yoon\u2019s impeachment remaining a majority at 64%, anti-impeachment sentiment has risen by 11 percentage points to 32%. This increase is primarily driven by moderates, whose support for impeachment has declined from 83% to 70% over the past three weeks.<\/span><\/p>\n

Gallup Korea\u2019s survey further highlights stark partisan divides. Among conservatives, 73% back the PPP, while progressives overwhelmingly support the DP at the same rate. Moderates are more fragmented, with 24% favoring the PPP, 35% backing the DP and 29% remaining unaffiliated.<\/span><\/p>\n

Age and gender dynamics further illustrate the polarization. The PPP retains strong support among older voters, securing 53% among those in their 60s and 56% among those aged 70 and above. In contrast, the DP leads among younger and middle-aged voters, particularly those in their 40s, where its support reaches 53%.<\/span><\/p>\n

Women generally prefer the DP (40% to 32%), especially younger women, while men lean slightly toward the PPP (37% to 33%).<\/span><\/p>\n

Regional divides also persist. The PPP dominates in traditional conservative strongholds like Daegu City and North Gyeongsang Province, where PPP leads the DP 52% compared to the DP 19%. Notably, the PPP has regained ground in Seoul, leading 40% to 33%, marking a significant recovery after Yoon\u2019s failed martial law attempt.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

President Yoon Suk-yeol meets with former President Park Geun-hye, Nov. 7, 2023 | Image: ROK Presidential Office<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

LESSONS FROM THE PAST<\/b><\/p>\n

Most notably, the PPP\u2019s approval rating has recovered to pre-martial law support levels across most demographic groups. This resurgence contrasts sharply with the conservative collapse following former President Park Geun-hye\u2019s impeachment in 2016.<\/span><\/p>\n

At that time, the Saenuri Party \u2014 the PPP\u2019s immediate predecessor \u2014 saw its support plummet from 34% to 12%, with no signs of recovery across any demographic.<\/span><\/p>\n

Today\u2019s PPP, however, has maintained its core conservative base, with 73% of self-identified conservatives continuing to support the party. This stability likely reflects lessons learned from 2016, when internal divisions and base fragmentation debilitated the conservative bloc.<\/span><\/p>\n

Some<\/span><\/a> media<\/span><\/a> outlets have suggested that the PPP\u2019s resurgence might have been influenced by an overrepresentation of enthusiastic conservative respondents. For instance, polls that employ automated response systems (ARS) tend to skew results in favor of conservative figures as respondents might disproportionately represent older demographic groups.<\/span><\/p>\n

Case in point, Realmeter, which uses ARS to track polls, <\/span>tends to indicate<\/span><\/a> higher approval ratings for conservative figures and policies.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, the <\/span>methodological rigor<\/span><\/a> of organizations like Gallup Korea and NBS mitigates concerns about overrepresentation as they employ live telephone interviews.<\/span><\/p>\n

MODERATE VOTERS IN FLUX<\/b><\/p>\n

Moderates, who were pivotal in supporting Yoon\u2019s impeachment motion, are showing noticeable shifts in their political attitudes. Initially, the DP gained significant traction among moderates, but this momentum is waning.<\/span><\/p>\n

Gallup Korea\u2019s data reveals that while overall support for impeachment remains steady, moderates\u2019 backing has dropped significantly, from 83% to 70%. This decline reflects growing concerns about the impeachment\u2019s economic and political implications.<\/span><\/p>\n

Economic anxiety has overtaken institutional reform as the top priority for voters. According to the NBS, 38% of respondents now cite the economy as their primary concern, compared to 23% who prioritize political reform.<\/span><\/p>\n

The prolonged impeachment process, coupled with domestic political disputes over investigative powers and enforcement failures, has exacerbated public uncertainty. The <\/span>impeachment<\/span><\/a> of former Acting President Han Duck-soo has further fueled perceptions of political instability, making moderates more skeptical about the DP\u2019s focus on governance.<\/span><\/p>\n

Moreover, this growing sense of anxiety over the economy comes as Donald Trump is set to return to the U.S. presidency in less than two weeks.<\/span><\/p>\n

With the president and the prime minister impeached, leaving a weakened finance minister Choi Sang-mok to take over the reins, South Korean voters appear to be concerned about the leadership vacuum as Trump is expected to impose wide-ranging tariffs after he is sworn in to office on Jan. 20.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung meets with People Power Party floor leader Kwon Seong-dong, Dec. 18, 2024 | Image: Democratic Party of Korea<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

CHALLENGES FOR THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY<\/b><\/p>\n

Despite leading in the polls, albeit slightly, the DP faces significant challenges. The party\u2019s support remains concentrated among core progressive voters, with 73% of self-identified progressives backing it. However, its appeal among moderates has weakened, jeopardizing its ability to consolidate broader public support.<\/span><\/p>\n

The party also confronts a seeming disconnect between voters\u2019 support for impeaching Yoon and their broader political preferences.<\/span><\/p>\n

While 53% of respondents favor a DP-led government and 41% indicate they would vote for a DP candidate in the next election, only 31% express support for DP leader Lee Jae-myung, reflecting voters\u2019 concerns about Lee\u2019s <\/span>legal troubles<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Further, a separate poll by <\/span>Gongjung<\/span><\/a> \u2014 a smaller organization with conservative leanings \u2014 reveals that Lee is the most disliked political figure, with 42.1% of respondents saying they would \u201cnever\u201d vote for him.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

This disconnect underscores the DP\u2019s struggle to translate impeachment momentum into electoral advantage.<\/span><\/p>\n

OPPORTUNITIES AND RISKS FOR THE PEOPLE POWER PARTY<\/b><\/p>\n

The PPP\u2019s ability to maintain its conservative base provides a foundation for further gains. However, missteps could quickly erode this support.<\/span><\/p>\n

For instance, PPP lawmaker Kim Meen-geon <\/span>platformed<\/span><\/a> on Thursday the White Skull Corps, a right-wing group formed to block Yoon\u2019s arrest. Introduced as an \u201cAnti-communist Youth Brigade\u201d during a National Assembly press conference, the group\u2019s revival of a <\/span>historically contentious name<\/span><\/a> has drawn sharp criticism, potentially alienating moderate voters.<\/span><\/p>\n

For its part, the PPP has mostly focused its messaging on criticizing the DP\u2019s impeachment spree and emphasizing economic stability. Party officials argue that the impeachment process has distracted the government from addressing pressing issues like the volatile currency. This narrative aims to position the PPP as the party of stability and responsible governance.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, the PPP\u2019s initial decision to defend Yoon from impeachment remains a liability. The party\u2019s decision to boycott the initial impeachment motion and later vote against it ties it to Yoon\u2019s actions, complicating its efforts to appeal to undecided voters.<\/span><\/p>\n

Further, there is a risk that the party could misinterpret this recovery as a validation of its strategies rather than a rallying effect among conservatives, which may turn away voter support once again.<\/span><\/p>\n

BROADER IMPLICATIONS<\/b><\/p>\n

The implications of the PPP\u2019s recovery and the DP\u2019s struggles extend beyond immediate electoral calculations. For the PPP, the uptick in support may reinforce internal confidence, but it risks fostering complacency.<\/span><\/p>\n

For the DP, the PPP\u2019s resurgence demonstrates that impeachment alone may not secure lasting support, particularly if economic concerns overshadow institutional reform in voters\u2019 minds. Without effectively addressing economic anxieties and regaining moderate trust, the DP risks failing to secure the decisive momentum needed to surpass its 2016 standing.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by John Lee<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Domestic Politics<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In the wake of President Yoon Suk-yeol\u2019s impeachment, South Korea\u2019s ruling People Power Party (PPP) has defied expectations, recovering public support and reshaping the narrative ahead of a fast-tracked presidential election. 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