{"id":2207594,"date":"2024-12-20T17:23:59","date_gmt":"2024-12-20T08:23:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2207594"},"modified":"2024-12-20T17:23:59","modified_gmt":"2024-12-20T08:23:59","slug":"how-a-democratic-party-presidency-could-reshape-south-koreas-foreign-policies","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/12\/how-a-democratic-party-presidency-could-reshape-south-koreas-foreign-policies\/","title":{"rendered":"How a Democratic Party presidency could reshape South Korea\u2019s foreign policies"},"content":{"rendered":"

South Korea is on the brink of a political shake-up, with the main opposition Democratic Party (DP) primed to reclaim the presidency after President Yoon Suk-yeol\u2019s <\/span>impeachment<\/span><\/a> left the ruling party in disarray. With <\/span>polls<\/span><\/a> signaling a landslide for the opposition, major shifts in governance are on the horizon.<\/span><\/p>\n

This series of six analyses will explore the changes \u2014 and continuities \u2014 that could emerge under a DP administration, covering geopolitics, trade, domestic policies, the economy and more.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In the first part, <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i> examines how a DP-led government could reshape South Korea\u2019s foreign and trade policies and the challenges it could face, including the return of Donald Trump to the White House and North Korea\u2019s increasingly defiant posture.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n
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President-elect Donald Trump, Nov. 7, 2024 | Image: Trump War Room via Twitter<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

TRADE POLICY REALIGNMENT: A TRUMP-DRIVEN RESET<\/b><\/p>\n

Under a DP-led government, South Korea\u2019s trade policies will face the dual challenge of navigating a protectionist U.S. administration and managing economic ties with China. Trump\u2019s promise to <\/span>dismantle<\/span><\/a> the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework and <\/span>reintroduce tariffs<\/span><\/a> on allies, including South Korea, is set to upend the regional trade landscape.<\/span><\/p>\n

For Seoul, this means recalibrating its export-driven economy to withstand external shocks.<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korea\u2019s semiconductor sector, already caught in the crossfire of U.S.-China tensions, will remain a focal point. The DP is likely to prioritize compliance with <\/span>U.S. export controls<\/span><\/a> on high-tech goods to China while seeking to preserve its lucrative trade relationship with Beijing. Balancing these priorities will be critical to sustaining growth in industries like semiconductors, electric vehicles and green technologies.<\/span><\/p>\n

The DP\u2019s stance on trade agreements like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) will be more assertive. Unlike the Yoon administration, which <\/span>aligned closely<\/span><\/a> with U.S.-led frameworks, the DP may leverage RCEP to strengthen regional ties and hedge against Trump\u2019s unpredictability.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, Seoul\u2019s maneuvering will be constrained by its reliance on Washington\u2019s security guarantees. Additionally, the DP will likely emphasize deepening trade and investment ties with Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries, which have become <\/span>vital partners<\/span><\/a> for South Korea\u2019s diversification strategy.<\/span><\/p>\n

The potential impact of Trump\u2019s tariffs on South Korean industries cannot be overstated. Key sectors, including batteries, automotive and steel, would face renewed pressure, potentially leading to increased production costs and reduced global competitiveness.<\/span><\/p>\n

To counteract these challenges, the DP may advocate for strengthening regional trade agreements and diversifying export markets to reduce dependency on the U.S.<\/span><\/p>\n

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North Korean leader Kim Jong Un tests a 7.62 mm sniper rifle, Sept. 19, 2024 | Image: KCNA<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

NORTH KOREA: ENGAGEMENT MEETS RESISTANCE<\/b><\/p>\n

A DP-led government would likely seek to revive inter-Korean dialogue, a cornerstone of its policy under the <\/span>Moon Jae-in administration<\/span><\/a>. Yet North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has <\/span>dismissed<\/span><\/a> the possibility of negotiations, declaring an end to Pyongyang\u2019s pursuit of peaceful reunification. This hardline stance leaves Seoul with limited options.<\/span><\/p>\n

The DP may pivot to indirect engagement through humanitarian aid or confidence-building measures, aiming to reduce tensions without direct talks. Efforts to restart joint economic projects, such as the <\/span>Kaesong Industrial Complex<\/span><\/a>, could resurface but are unlikely to materialize given Pyongyang\u2019s current posture.<\/span><\/p>\n

Such initiatives would also face pushback from Washington and Tokyo, which prioritize coordinated pressure on North Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n

The growing alignment between the DPRK and Russia adds another layer of complexity. Pyongyang\u2019s <\/span>involvement<\/span><\/a> in the Ukraine war, alongside <\/span>potential arms transfers<\/span><\/a> from Russia, could escalate regional tensions and further limit diplomatic options.<\/span><\/p>\n

A DP-led government will likely find it challenging to avoid alienating its allies while pursuing its engagement agenda.<\/span><\/p>\n

In addition to regional dynamics, public sentiment within South Korea regarding North Korea has grown <\/span>increasingly apathetic<\/span><\/a>. A DP government would have to contend with a domestic audience that may be disinterested in engagement efforts, particularly if they are perceived as diverting resources away from other domestic priorities.<\/span><\/p>\n

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The USS Theodore Roosevelt, ROK Navy Aegis Destroyer ROKS Seoae Ryu Seong-ryong and Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force Murasame-class destroyer JS Ariake sail in formation during a trilateral exercise in waters near Jeju Island, April 11, 2024 | Image: U.S. Seventh Fleet<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

DEFENSE COMMITMENTS AND THE U.S. ALLIANCE<\/b><\/p>\n

South Korea\u2019s alliance with the U.S. is a cornerstone of its security policy, and a DP-led government is unlikely to deviate from this framework. However, Trump\u2019s expected demands for increased defense cost-sharing under the <\/span>Special Measures Agreement<\/span><\/a> will test this partnership.<\/span><\/p>\n

Public sentiment <\/span>strongly supports<\/span><\/a> the U.S. alliance, but the DP may also explore ways to enhance South Korea\u2019s independent defense capabilities, aligning with broader public sentiment for greater strategic autonomy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Notably, Washington and Seoul agreed in 2021 to <\/span>terminate<\/span><\/a> their Revised Missile Guidelines during the Moon administration. The guidelines had capped the ROK\u2019s ballistic missiles\u2019 range and payload since 1979.<\/span><\/p>\n

Additionally, South Korea\u2019s role in trilateral military cooperation with the U.S. and Japan could face significant changes. While the Yoon administration pursued closer defense ties with Tokyo, and the three countries signed a deal to \u201c<\/span>institutionalize<\/span><\/a>\u201d trilateral ties against leadership changes, the lack of a formal treaty means that a DP-led government will likely scale back such efforts.<\/span><\/p>\n

This could impact the coordination of regional security strategies, particularly in countering North Korea and China.<\/span><\/p>\n

Another significant factor will be the DP\u2019s approach to missile defense systems like the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system, which remains a contentious issue in South Korea-China relations.<\/span><\/p>\n

Senior officials from the Moon administration are <\/span>under investigation<\/span><\/a> for leaking classified intelligence about THAAD to civic groups and Chinese officials in May 2020.<\/span><\/p>\n

A DP-led government may revisit the deployment of these systems to improve relations with Beijing while presenting its move to the Trump administration as a cost-saving measure.<\/span><\/p>\n

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President Yoon Suk-yeol meets with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Peru, Nov. 16, 2024 | Image: ROK Presidential Office<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

RELATIONS WITH JAPAN: A RETURN TO FRICTION<\/b><\/p>\n

Under the Yoon administration, South Korea pursued <\/span>rapprochement<\/span><\/a> with Japan, leading to trilateral military exercises with the U.S. Despite its unpopularity, this policy marked a significant shift. But a DP-led government is unlikely to continue this approach.<\/span><\/p>\n

The DP has been vocal in its <\/span>criticism<\/span><\/a> of Japan\u2019s decision to release treated water from the Fukushima nuclear plant into the sea, accusing the Yoon administration of <\/span>subservience<\/span><\/a> to Tokyo.<\/span><\/p>\n

The party also <\/span>criticized<\/span><\/a> the Yoon administration for allowing a Japanese warship to raise the Rising Sun flag \u2014 a flag that many South Koreans view as a symbol of Japanese occupation and oppression \u2014 during a multinational military exercise that was held in ROK waters in 2023.<\/span><\/p>\n

DP leader Lee Jae-myung has explicitly opposed <\/span>military cooperation<\/span><\/a> with Japan, <\/span>stating<\/span><\/a> in 2023 that it could pave the way for Japanese troops on Korean soil. A rollback in bilateral ties is likely, with implications for regional security and economic collaboration.<\/span><\/p>\n

Economic ties with Japan could also suffer. The DP\u2019s stance on historical issues, such as forced labor and wartime reparations, may lead to renewed tensions. Although Japan <\/span>reinstated<\/span><\/a> South Korea on its \u201cwhite list\u201d of trusted trading partners in 2023 amid improved ties, trade disputes between the two countries could return.<\/span><\/p>\n

A cooling of ties with Japan could also impact South Korea\u2019s ability to participate in trilateral economic initiatives involving the U.S. and Japan. Such an outcome could isolate Seoul in multilateral forums, potentially weakening its regional influence.<\/span><\/p>\n

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South Korean main opposition Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung (left) meets with then-Chinese Ambassador to South Korea Xing Haiming, June 8, 2023 | Image: Democratic Party of Korea via Facebook<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

RELATIONS WITH CHINA: A BALANCING ACT<\/b><\/p>\n

China remains South Korea\u2019s largest trading partner, and a DP-led government will likely seek to improve ties with Beijing.<\/span><\/p>\n

Notably, Lee Jae-myung <\/span>said<\/span><\/a> during a campaign speech in May that South Korean products are not competitive in China because of negative perceptions of South Korea among Chinese consumers. He blamed the Yoon administration\u2019s close alignment with Washington and Tokyo, saying, \u201cWhy do we care about what happens to the Taiwan Strait?\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

However, improving ties with Beijing will involve walking a tightrope between economic pragmatism and strategic alignment with the U.S.<\/span><\/p>\n

While adhering to Washington\u2019s red lines on semiconductor export restrictions, the DP may push for initiatives to reduce trade barriers with China and encourage Chinese investments.<\/span><\/p>\n

Beijing\u2019s growing economic and military assertiveness in the region will also factor into Seoul\u2019s calculations. A DP-led government may prioritize multilateral engagement through mechanisms like RCEP to maintain a balance between its economic reliance on China and its alliance with the U.S. and strategic partnerships with other countries.<\/span><\/p>\n

The challenge will be compounded by China\u2019s continued emphasis on its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). South Korea\u2019s participation, or lack thereof, in BRI projects will be closely scrutinized by both Washington and Beijing, adding another layer of complexity to its foreign policy.<\/span><\/p>\n

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President Yoon Suk-yeol meets with then-NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg during the NATO summit in Washington, D.C., July 11, 2024 | Image: ROK Presidential Office<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n

RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA: AVOIDING ESCALATION<\/b><\/p>\n

The Yoon administration\u2019s <\/span>openness to supplying arms<\/span><\/a> to Ukraine marked a significant shift in South Korea\u2019s foreign policy. A DP-led government, however, is likely to revert to a more cautious stance, emphasizing national security concerns.<\/span><\/p>\n

The DP has long <\/span>argued<\/span><\/a> that providing arms to Ukraine could provoke Russian retaliation, potentially jeopardizing South Korea\u2019s energy security and stability on the Korean Peninsula. Further, it has also opposed the deployment of even <\/span>military observers<\/span><\/a> to Ukraine.<\/span><\/p>\n

This position could strain relations with NATO, particularly its European members, while aligning more closely with public sentiment favoring neutrality.<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korea\u2019s participation in international sanctions against Russia will likely continue, but a DP-led government may seek to balance these measures with pragmatic approaches to minimize economic fallout.<\/span><\/p>\n

The growing North Korea-Russia alignment will also weigh heavily on South Korea\u2019s strategy, as closer ties between the two could exacerbate security threats and limit Seoul\u2019s diplomatic options.<\/span><\/p>\n

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President Yoon Suk-yeol participates in the 25th ROK-ASEAN summit in Laos, Oct. 10, 2024 | Image: ROK Presidential Office<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

OUTREACH TO ASEAN: CONTINUITY AMID CHANGE<\/b><\/p>\n

South Korea\u2019s outreach to ASEAN will likely remain consistent with previous administrations. The DP is expected to build on Moon Jae-in\u2019s <\/span>New Southern Policy<\/span><\/a> and Yoon Suk-yeol\u2019s <\/span>Indo-Pacific Strategy<\/span><\/a>, focusing on trade, energy and digital collaboration.<\/span><\/p>\n

Key areas of engagement will include infrastructure development, renewable energy projects and fostering deeper ties in the digital economy. ASEAN\u2019s strategic importance as a counterweight to China will ensure its prominence in South Korea\u2019s foreign policy agenda.<\/span><\/p>\n

Additionally, a DP-led government may explore opportunities to collaborate on maritime security, addressing shared concerns over regional stability.<\/span><\/p>\n

The potential for South Korea to serve as a technological and infrastructure partner to ASEAN countries will also be a focus. Initiatives in smart city projects, digital trade and renewable energy could solidify Seoul\u2019s standing as a key regional player.<\/span><\/p>\n

PACIFIC ISLANDS AND AFRICA: SUSTAINING MOMENTUM<\/b><\/p>\n

Yoon\u2019s Indo-Pacific strategy expanded South Korea\u2019s engagement with the Pacific Islands and Africa, introducing initiatives like <\/span>rice diplomacy<\/span><\/a> and increased <\/span>aid pledges<\/span><\/a>. A DP-led government is expected to sustain these efforts, framing them as part of a broader commitment to global development.<\/span><\/p>\n

These regions\u2019 geostrategic significance, particularly in counterbalancing China\u2019s influence, will ensure their continued importance in Seoul\u2019s foreign policy. The DP\u2019s approach may place greater emphasis on multilateral frameworks and developmental cooperation.<\/span><\/p>\n

Efforts to build partnerships in green energy, infrastructure and education will likely be central to South Korea\u2019s engagement with these regions, fostering goodwill and enhancing its international profile.<\/span><\/p>\n

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President Yoon Suk-yeol and UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan tour the Barakah nuclear power plant, Jan. 16, 2023 | Image: ROK Presidential Office<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

NUCLEAR ENERGY: DOMESTIC POLICY MEETS FOREIGN IMPLICATIONS<\/b><\/p>\n

The DP\u2019s opposition to nuclear energy \u2014 a hallmark of the Moon Jae-in administration \u2014 could resurface under Lee Jae-myung. Lee has criticized the Yoon administration\u2019s embrace of nuclear energy, <\/span>saying<\/span><\/a> in June, \u201cWe cannot possibly stand up to the rising wave of RE100.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

RE100<\/span><\/a> is a global initiative uniting companies committed to 100% renewable energy in their operations.<\/span><\/p>\n

Instead, Lee called for the establishment of a new ministry to tackle renewable energy policies needed to mitigate the impacts of climate change.<\/span><\/p>\n

If the DP reinstates a nuclear phase-out policy or refuses to extend the lifespan of existing plants, South Korea\u2019s ability to maintain its nuclear power exports could be at risk.<\/span><\/p>\n

Although South Korea\u2019s nuclear power exports to <\/span>Poland<\/span><\/a> and the <\/span>Czech Republic<\/span><\/a> have had some success under the Yoon administration, other international buyers may hesitate to engage with a country perceived as scaling back its domestic nuclear industry. This could undermine South Korea\u2019s competitiveness in the global nuclear market.<\/span><\/p>\n

Additionally, the potential decline in nuclear engineering education and expertise could have long-term repercussions for South Korea\u2019s ability to sustain its nuclear technology sector.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by Alannah Hill<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

South Korea is on the brink of a political shake-up, with the main opposition Democratic Party (DP) primed to reclaim the presidency after President Yoon Suk-yeol\u2019s impeachment left the ruling party in disarray. With polls signaling a landslide for the opposition, major shifts in governance are on the horizon. This series of six analyses will […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10407,"featured_media":2207621,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[28],"class_list":["post-2207594","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-inter-korean-foreign-relations"],"yoast_head":"\nHow a Democratic Party presidency could reshape South Korea\u2019s foreign policies - KOREA PRO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/12\/how-a-democratic-party-presidency-could-reshape-south-koreas-foreign-policies\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How a Democratic Party presidency could reshape South Korea\u2019s foreign policies - KOREA PRO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"South Korea is on the brink of a political shake-up, with the main opposition Democratic Party (DP) primed to reclaim the presidency after President Yoon Suk-yeol\u2019s impeachment left the ruling party in disarray. With polls signaling a landslide for the opposition, major shifts in governance are on the horizon. This series of six analyses will […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/12\/how-a-democratic-party-presidency-could-reshape-south-koreas-foreign-policies\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"KOREA PRO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/nknewsorg\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-12-20T08:23:59+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/assets.korearisk.com\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2024\/12\/feature-12.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1870\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"johnleenknews\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@southkoreapro\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@southkoreapro\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"John Lee\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"11 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/12\/how-a-democratic-party-presidency-could-reshape-south-koreas-foreign-policies\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/12\/how-a-democratic-party-presidency-could-reshape-south-koreas-foreign-policies\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"johnleenknews\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/#\/schema\/person\/b9766dba611638edc06a6e0b7078714d\"},\"headline\":\"How a Democratic Party presidency could reshape South Korea\u2019s foreign policies\",\"datePublished\":\"2024-12-20T08:23:59+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-12-20T08:23:59+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/12\/how-a-democratic-party-presidency-could-reshape-south-koreas-foreign-policies\/\"},\"wordCount\":2224,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/12\/how-a-democratic-party-presidency-could-reshape-south-koreas-foreign-policies\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/assets.korearisk.com\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2024\/12\/feature-12.png\",\"keywords\":[\"Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Analysis\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/12\/how-a-democratic-party-presidency-could-reshape-south-koreas-foreign-policies\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/12\/how-a-democratic-party-presidency-could-reshape-south-koreas-foreign-policies\/\",\"name\":\"How a Democratic Party presidency could reshape South Korea\u2019s foreign policies - 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