{"id":2207539,"date":"2024-12-16T15:05:36","date_gmt":"2024-12-16T06:05:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2207539"},"modified":"2024-12-17T13:11:16","modified_gmt":"2024-12-17T04:11:16","slug":"whats-at-stake-in-south-koreas-impeachment-trial-of-yoon-suk-yeol","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/12\/whats-at-stake-in-south-koreas-impeachment-trial-of-yoon-suk-yeol\/","title":{"rendered":"What\u2019s at stake in South Korea\u2019s impeachment trial of Yoon Suk-yeol"},"content":{"rendered":"

After the South Korean National Assembly voted to <\/span>impeach<\/span><\/a> President Yoon Suk-yeol on Saturday, the Constitutional Court faces the task of determining not only Yoon\u2019s political fate but also the balance of power between the executive and legislative branches.<\/span><\/p>\n

The stakes go beyond one individual, encompassing the integrity of the nation\u2019s democratic institutions and the limits of presidential authority.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Several factors will likely shape the court\u2019s decision, from Yoon\u2019s stated justification for declaring martial law to the margin of lawmakers\u2019 support for impeachment, and both upholding and overturning impeachment carry considerable risks for the future of the country.<\/span><\/p>\n

THE COURT\u2019S ROLE AND HISTORICAL PRECEDENTS<\/b><\/p>\n

The Constitutional Court\u2019s mandate is to assess whether the president\u2019s actions constitute \u201cgrave violations of the Constitution or the law\u201d sufficient to justify removal from office. Its rulings require a two-thirds majority \u2014 six of the nine justices \u2014 and are legally binding. While public and political pressures exist, the court\u2019s primary responsibility is to ensure its decisions are rooted in legal principles, insulated from partisan influence.<\/span><\/p>\n

Two prior impeachments offer critical context for understanding the court\u2019s approach.<\/span><\/p>\n

In 2004, the court <\/span>overturned<\/span><\/a> the impeachment of Roh Moo-hyun, ruling that his actions \u2014 violating election neutrality \u2014 did not constitute a grave constitutional breach. This decision, reached in 63 days, underscored the court\u2019s preference for restraint.<\/span><\/p>\n

By contrast, in 2017, the court upheld the <\/span>impeachment<\/span><\/a> of Park Geun-hye, citing clear evidence of corruption and abuse of power. This unanimous ruling, delivered in 91 days, reflected the court\u2019s willingness to act decisively when constitutional violations were unambiguous and public consensus overwhelming.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yoon\u2019s case presents unique challenges. Unlike Roh\u2019s relatively procedural breach and Park\u2019s evident corruption, Yoon\u2019s impeachment centers on his <\/span>martial law declaration<\/span><\/a>. The controversy lies in whether his actions \u2014 allegedly to address election security concerns \u2014 constitute a genuine threat to constitutional order.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Left: Then-President Roh Moo-hyun speaks during a press conference on Jan. 28, 2008; Right: Then-President Park Geun-hye speaks during a press conference on May 19, 2014 | Image: KTV<\/a> Archives<\/a>, edited by Korea Pro<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

FACTORS IN THE COURT\u2019S DELIBERATION<\/b><\/p>\n

The court must evaluate Yoon\u2019s martial law declaration in light of its intent, proportionality and impact on democratic institutions.<\/span><\/p>\n

The National Assembly argued that Yoon\u2019s actions were an unconstitutional attempt to disrupt the democratic process. Yoon <\/span>countered<\/span><\/a> ahead of the vote last week that his martial declaration was a legitimate response to alleged external threats, including reported <\/span>North Korean cyberattacks<\/span><\/a> on election infrastructure.<\/span><\/p>\n

Determining intent will be pivotal. The court will have to decide whether Yoon\u2019s martial law declaration reflected a deliberate effort to undermine constitutional order or if it was a miscalculated response to perceived security risks.<\/span><\/p>\n

His defense highlighted the limited scale of the military deployment \u2014 fewer than 300 unarmed personnel \u2014 and the immediate withdrawal of troops once the National Assembly voted to lift his order.<\/span><\/p>\n

Transparency also plays a key role. Unlike <\/span>historical examples<\/span><\/a> of martial law used to consolidate power in secrecy, Yoon\u2019s declaration was made publicly, albeit in a manner that still violated procedural and legal norms, according to the opposition. His legal team will likely argue that this openness undermines accusations of treason.<\/span><\/p>\n

The court will assess whether the impeachment \u2014 which passed with 204 votes, just four more than the required 200 \u2014 demonstrates sufficient political consensus. By comparison, Park\u2019s impeachment garnered 234 votes, reflecting broader bipartisan support. The relatively narrow margin in Yoon\u2019s case may weigh on the court\u2019s decision, particularly if it views the impeachment as overly partisan.<\/span><\/p>\n

Public sentiment adds another layer of complexity. A <\/span>Realmeter poll<\/span><\/a> published two days before the impeachment vote indicated that nearly 75% of South Koreans supported Yoon\u2019s resignation or removal. Although public opinion is not a formal criterion for the court\u2019s decision, it underscores the high stakes and potential ramifications for public trust in democratic institutions.<\/span><\/p>\n

The expiration of two justices\u2019 terms in April 2025 \u2014 Moon Hyung-bae and Lee Mi-seon, both appointed by former President Moon Jae-in in April 2019 \u2014 could complicate the Constitutional Court\u2019s deliberations.<\/span><\/p>\n

Their terms will expire within the 180-day window for the court to rule on Yoon\u2019s case. If the court has not issued a decision by April, it would fall to Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, acting president after Yoon\u2019s impeachment, to either renew their terms or appoint replacements.<\/span><\/p>\n

Han\u2019s decisions in this regard will be contentious. As a caretaker president with limited political legitimacy, any move to replace the justices could be seen as an attempt to influence the court\u2019s composition.<\/span><\/p>\n

Critics, particularly from opposition parties, may argue that Han\u2019s appointments would favor conservative candidates more sympathetic to overturning impeachment. This could trigger a broader debate about judicial independence and the propriety of making significant appointments during a caretaker administration.<\/span><\/p>\n

The potential for these vacancies to politicize the court\u2019s ruling underscores the urgency of resolving the impeachment before April 2025.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Acting President Han Duck-soo speaks with USFK Commander General Paul J. LaCamera, Dec. 15, 2024 | Image: ROK Prime Minister’s Office via Facebook<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

RISKS IF IMPEACHMENT IS UPHELD<\/b><\/p>\n

If the court upholds impeachment, internal divisions within the ruling People Power Party (PPP) are likely to intensify. Only 12 PPP lawmakers supported impeachment, while 85 opposed it. This discord highlights a deep split between pro-Yoon hardliners and those aligned with former PPP leader Han Dong-hoon, who backed impeachment.<\/span><\/p>\n

Han <\/span>announced<\/span><\/a> on Monday that he will resign from his role as party leader, ceding influence to Yoon\u2019s allies such as <\/span>floor leader Kwon Seong-dong<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Historical precedent suggests further fragmentation is possible. After Park\u2019s impeachment in 2017, moderates within the conservative bloc formed the Bareun Mirae Party. However, their influence waned, and the PPP\u2019s eventual consolidation shifted the party further to the right.<\/span><\/p>\n

A similar dynamic could occur now, with pro-Yoon factions consolidating power, alienating moderates and making the party less appealing to centrist voters.<\/span><\/p>\n

Electorally, this shift could weaken the PPP\u2019s position in urban and swing districts. A more ideologically rigid party risks losing critical voter bases, particularly amid widespread public dissatisfaction with Yoon\u2019s leadership.<\/span><\/p>\n

Governance could also suffer as internal power struggles distract from policymaking at a time when South Korea faces economic challenges and heightened geopolitical tensions.<\/span><\/p>\n

As the PPP moves further to the right, pro-business and pro-internationalist voices may lose their influence.<\/span><\/p>\n

Additionally, a weaker and more polarized conservative party could destabilize South Korea\u2019s political balance, reducing the capacity for constructive policy debates and bipartisanship. This fragmentation may leave South Korea without a cohesive opposition force, undermining democratic accountability and creating a more polarized political landscape.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Ruling People Power Party leader Han Dong-hoon announces his resignation while other PPP lawmakers, including floor leader Kwon Seong-dong (pink tie) stand at the sidelines, Dec. 16, 2024 | Image: People Power Party<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

RISKS IF IMPEACHMENT IS OVERTURNED<\/b><\/p>\n

Overturning impeachment poses significant risks for public trust in South Korea\u2019s democratic institutions. With 74.8% of the public favoring Yoon\u2019s removal, a ruling in his favor could be perceived as dismissive of public accountability.<\/span><\/p>\n

This could lead to mass protests reminiscent of the candlelight demonstrations that preceded Park Geun-hye\u2019s impeachment, further straining societal cohesion. Public discontent, if not addressed, could snowball into a broader crisis of confidence in South Korea\u2019s political system.<\/span><\/p>\n

Legislative gridlock is another likely consequence. Yoon\u2019s reinstatement would exacerbate tensions with the opposition-controlled National Assembly, leading to policy paralysis at a critical juncture for South Korea\u2019s economy and foreign relations.<\/span><\/p>\n

The opposition Democratic Party, emboldened by public sentiment, may intensify efforts to block Yoon\u2019s agenda, including vetoing key economic measures or foreign policy initiatives. This deepening stalemate could delay critical reforms and destabilize governance during a time of economic uncertainty and escalating geopolitical challenges.<\/span><\/p>\n

A ruling in Yoon\u2019s favor could also <\/span>normalize the use of emergency powers<\/span><\/a> for political purposes, setting a troubling precedent. Critics argue that such a decision risks lowering the threshold for what is deemed acceptable under martial law declarations, effectively weakening the National Assembly\u2019s ability to hold future presidents accountable.<\/span><\/p>\n

This could embolden leaders to test the limits of their authority, eroding checks and balances painfully put in place since South Korea\u2019s democratization.<\/span><\/p>\n

Further, the court\u2019s decision could diminish the perceived legitimacy of impeachment as a mechanism for holding executives accountable. If the bar for impeachment is set too high, it may discourage future legislatures from initiating proceedings against presidents, even in cases of clear misconduct.<\/span><\/p>\n

This erosion of accountability mechanisms could weaken South Korea\u2019s democratic institutions in the long term, leaving them vulnerable to overreach by future administrations.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Main opposition Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung speaks during a press conference, Dec. 15, 2024 | Image: Democratic Party of Korea<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

BROADER IMPLICATIONS OF THE COURT\u2019S DECISION<\/b><\/p>\n

The court\u2019s ruling will have far-reaching consequences for South Korea. Upholding impeachment would reinforce constitutional accountability but risk exacerbating polarization and weakening the PPP\u2019s cohesion. Overturning impeachment, on the other hand, could undermine public trust in democratic institutions, embolden executive overreach and deepen legislative gridlock.<\/span><\/p>\n

Internationally, the decision will affect South Korea\u2019s reputation as a stable democracy. A prolonged or controversial ruling could <\/span>erode investor confidence<\/span><\/a> and complicate South Korea\u2019s efforts to navigate challenges involving North Korea, the U.S. and China.<\/span><\/p>\n

Domestically, the ruling will shape public expectations of accountability and the balance of power between branches of government, setting precedents that could endure for decades.<\/span><\/p>\n

By delivering a judgment rooted in legal rigor and impartiality, the court has an opportunity to reinforce democratic resilience and provide clarity on the limits of presidential authority. South Korea\u2019s political stability and institutional credibility hang in the balance.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by Alannah Hill<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Business & Economy<\/span><\/a>Culture & Society<\/span><\/a>Defense & Security<\/span><\/a>Domestic Politics<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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