{"id":2207347,"date":"2024-12-03T17:03:27","date_gmt":"2024-12-03T08:03:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2207347"},"modified":"2024-12-04T11:49:01","modified_gmt":"2024-12-04T02:49:01","slug":"ukraines-arms-request-puts-south-korea-in-a-diplomatic-and-logistical-dilemma","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/12\/ukraines-arms-request-puts-south-korea-in-a-diplomatic-and-logistical-dilemma\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine\u2019s arms request puts South Korea in a diplomatic and logistical dilemma"},"content":{"rendered":"

South Korea faces a critical challenge as it weighs Ukraine\u2019s reported requests for advanced weapons, including the Cheongung air defense system and 155mm artillery shells.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ukrainian defense minister Rustem Umerov\u2019s <\/span>visit<\/span><\/a> to Seoul last week <\/span>reportedly<\/span><\/a> included a formal wishlist for arms purchases, reflecting a shift in Kyiv\u2019s approach toward South Korea \u2014 from requesting military aid to offering procurement.<\/span><\/p>\n

This shifting approach likely reflects Kyiv\u2019s awareness of over <\/span>80%<\/span><\/a> of South Koreans opposing military aid, which has put political limits on the government\u2019s decision-making.<\/span><\/p>\n

Beyond domestic political obstacles, defense analysts told <\/span>Korea Pro <\/span><\/i>that logistical constraints, ethical concerns and geopolitical risks \u2014 particularly Donald Trump\u2019s imminent return to the U.S. presidency and potentially irreparable damage to Seoul\u2019s ties with Moscow \u2014 prevent the ROK from meeting Ukraine\u2019s request.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

South Korean soldiers test the Cheongung-II surface-to-air missile system during a drill, Nov. 6, 2024 | Image: ROK Joint Chiefs of Staff<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

PRODUCTION CAPACITY UNDER STRAIN<\/b><\/p>\n

South Korea\u2019s defense industry faces severe production challenges that make fulfilling Ukraine\u2019s demands difficult.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Cheongung mid-range surface-to-air missile (M-SAM), at the top of Ukraine\u2019s reported wishlist, is a flagship export for South Korea. However, Shin Seung-ki, a senior analyst at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA), has warned that fulfilling existing contracts with buyers like the <\/span>United Arab Emirates<\/span><\/a>, <\/span>Saudi Arabia<\/span><\/a> and <\/span>Iraq<\/span><\/a> will take until 2030.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cEven with additional production lines, meeting Ukraine\u2019s reported requests would require years of preparation,\u201d Shin said, adding that scaling up production is \u201cunfeasible under current conditions.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Zelensky\u2019s<\/span><\/a> reported request for 155mm artillery shells faces similar constraints. Poongsan, South Korea\u2019s <\/span>leading producer<\/span><\/a>, can boost production to 500,000 shells annually during emergencies.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, Choi Gi-il, a defense industry expert and professor at Sangji University, told <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i> that pushing production to these levels would impose a severe strain on resources.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cCompanies themselves would likely express reluctance to push production beyond sustainable levels, especially if it\u2019s for export rather than for critical domestic needs,\u201d Choi said.<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korea\u2019s own military modernization plans, including deploying advanced systems like the <\/span>L-SAM<\/span><\/a>, further limit the availability of production lines for exports. Expanding capacity would require significant investments in infrastructure and workforce, making it a long-term solution rather than an immediate fix.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

South Korea’s leading defense manufacturers Hanwha Systems and LIG Nex1 display their weapons at the Seoul ADEX, Oct. 2023 | Image: Korea Pro<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

LOGISTICAL AND BUSINESS RISKS<\/b><\/p>\n

The logistical challenges of meeting Ukraine\u2019s demands are compounded by risks to South Korea\u2019s defense firms. One key uncertainty is the expected duration of the conflict in Ukraine.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIf the war were expected to last several more years, South Korea might consider scaling up production,\u201d Shin said.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, as Trump\u2019s transition team has signaled that it plans to mediate in the conflict, defense companies may be unwilling to invest in expanding production for a conflict with an uncertain timeline.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe defense industry has seen unprecedented growth in recent years, but individual companies\u2019 ultimate focus is to remain profitable,\u201d Choi added. \u201cThe defense industry has seen some market corrections, with stock prices reflecting these developments.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Moreover, South Korean defense firms are wary of reputational risks. Supplying arms to an active conflict zone could expose them to criticism if the weapons are linked to civilian casualties or misuse.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cDefense companies stand to benefit financially from increased sales, but they remain wary of backlash and international condemnation,\u201d Choi said, emphasizing the ethical and reputational stakes involved.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Left: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signs 155mm artillery shells at the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant, Sept. 23, 2024; Right: Then-U.S. President Donald Trump in the White House Situation Room, March 26, 2020 | Images: Presidential Office of Ukraine<\/a>, Trump White House via Flickr<\/a>, edited by Korea Pro<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

DIPLOMATIC MINEFIELD<\/b><\/p>\n

Donald Trump\u2019s return to the White House in January further complicates South Korea\u2019s decision to provide or sell weapons to Ukraine.<\/span><\/p>\n

Michael Waltz, Trump\u2019s pick for national security adviser, recently warned against South Korea\u2019s involvement with the war in Ukraine. In a <\/span>Fox News<\/span><\/a> interview, Waltz framed arms sales to Ukraine as \u201cengagement in the war\u201d and emphasized Trump\u2019s priority to negotiate a settlement between Kyiv and Moscow.<\/span><\/p>\n

Waltz\u2019s remark suggests that Trump might perceive South Korea\u2019s provision of weapons as undermining U.S. diplomatic efforts, which may in turn strain Seoul\u2019s alliance with Washington.<\/span><\/p>\n

Additionally, Moscow has <\/span>threatened<\/span><\/a> to end diplomatic relations with Seoul if it supplies arms to Ukraine. South Korea\u2019s national security adviser has also <\/span>warned<\/span><\/a> that Russia\u2019s growing military ties with North Korea \u2014 exchanging air defense systems for offensive weapons and troops \u2014 could escalate risks to regional security.<\/span><\/p>\n

Seoul is also concerned that if it provides weapons to Ukraine, it may accelerate Russia\u2019s <\/span>transfer<\/span><\/a> of military technology to North Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n

These pressures leave South Korea in a precarious position.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol during an emergency NSC meeting, Nov. 21, 2023 | Image: ROK Presidential Office<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

STRATEGIC CONSIDERATIONS<\/b><\/p>\n

On the strategic front, South Korea\u2019s decision will likely influence its global standing as a defense supplier.<\/span><\/p>\n

For instance, major buyers, such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are closely watching how Seoul navigates this high-stakes situation. Failing to meet commitments or delaying arms shipments as per earlier agreements could harm South Korea\u2019s reputation for reliability.<\/span><\/p>\n

In light of these challenges, South Korea appears to be adopting a cautious, wait-and-see approach.<\/span><\/p>\n

Government officials have emphasized <\/span>non-lethal aid<\/span><\/a> and <\/span>reconstruction<\/span><\/a> support for Ukraine, steering clear of confirming or denying the specifics of Kyiv\u2019s reported wishlist. Behind closed doors, officials have <\/span>reportedly<\/span><\/a> indicated<\/span><\/a> that they first need clarity on Trump\u2019s Ukraine policy before committing to any major actions.<\/span><\/p>\n

This shift suggests a calculated strategy to avoid making irreversible decisions while maintaining flexibility.<\/span><\/p>\n

OUTLOOK<\/b><\/p>\n

South Korea\u2019s handling of Ukraine\u2019s arms requests will have far-reaching implications for its defense industry, diplomatic standing and domestic politics. Logistical constraints and ethical concerns make immediate action difficult, while Trump\u2019s presidency could reshape the global arms trade landscape and further complicate decision-making.<\/span><\/p>\n

A cautious approach may help South Korea mitigate risks, but it also risks alienating partners like Ukraine and other European nations, which urgently need advanced systems to counter Russian aggression. As the war evolves and U.S. policies shift, South Korea\u2019s balancing act between domestic constraints and international commitments will grow increasingly precarious.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by John Lee<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Business & Economy<\/span><\/a>Defense & Security<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

South Korea faces a critical challenge as it weighs Ukraine\u2019s reported requests for advanced weapons, including the Cheongung air defense system and 155mm artillery shells. Ukrainian defense minister Rustem Umerov\u2019s visit to Seoul last week reportedly included a formal wishlist for arms purchases, reflecting a shift in Kyiv\u2019s approach toward South Korea \u2014 from requesting […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10909,"featured_media":2206927,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[24,26,28],"class_list":["post-2207347","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-business-economy","tag-defense-security","tag-inter-korean-foreign-relations"],"yoast_head":"\nUkraine\u2019s arms request puts South Korea in a diplomatic and logistical dilemma - KOREA PRO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/12\/ukraines-arms-request-puts-south-korea-in-a-diplomatic-and-logistical-dilemma\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Ukraine\u2019s arms request puts South Korea in a diplomatic and logistical dilemma - KOREA PRO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"South Korea faces a critical challenge as it weighs Ukraine\u2019s reported requests for advanced weapons, including the Cheongung air defense system and 155mm artillery shells. 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