{"id":2207280,"date":"2024-11-27T08:00:25","date_gmt":"2024-11-26T23:00:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2207280"},"modified":"2024-11-26T18:41:40","modified_gmt":"2024-11-26T09:41:40","slug":"south-koreas-economic-vulnerability-rises-amid-worsening-business-confidence","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/11\/south-koreas-economic-vulnerability-rises-amid-worsening-business-confidence\/","title":{"rendered":"South Korea&#8217;s economic vulnerability rises amid worsening business confidence"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>South Korea&#8217;s vulnerability to external shocks appears to have increased, with foreign trade \u2014 imports plus exports \u2014 now <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bok.or.kr\/portal\/bbs\/B0000501\/view.do?nttId=10088179&amp;searchCnd=1&amp;searchKwd=&amp;depth2=200038&amp;depth3=201263&amp;depth=201263&amp;pageUnit=10&amp;pageIndex=1&amp;programType=newsData&amp;menuNo=201264&amp;oldMenuNo=201263\">accounting<\/a> for 31.5% of total transactions in 2022, up 2.7 percentage points from the previous year, the Bank of Korea (BOK) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.yna.co.kr\/view\/AKR20241126076800002?section=economy\/all&amp;site=major_news02_related\">announced<\/a> Tuesday.<\/p>\n<p>The trade dependence spike comes as both consumer and business confidence deteriorated, separate datasets showed Tuesday. First, the central bank\u2019s consumer sentiment survey on Tuesday showed that the citizens\u2019 future economic outlook <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bok.or.kr\/portal\/bbs\/B0000501\/view.do?nttId=10088147&amp;searchCnd=1&amp;searchKwd=&amp;depth2=200038&amp;depth3=201263&amp;depth=201263&amp;pageUnit=10&amp;pageIndex=1&amp;programType=newsData&amp;menuNo=201264&amp;oldMenuNo=201263\">index<\/a> fell 7 points \u2014 its <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bok.or.kr\/portal\/bbs\/B0000501\/view.do?nttId=10088147&amp;searchCnd=1&amp;searchKwd=&amp;depth2=200038&amp;depth3=201263&amp;depth=201263&amp;pageUnit=10&amp;pageIndex=1&amp;programType=newsData&amp;menuNo=201264&amp;oldMenuNo=201263\">steepest<\/a> decline since July 2022; and then, the Business Sentiment Index (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.fki.or.kr\/main\/news\/statement_detail.do\">BSI<\/a>) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.yna.co.kr\/view\/AKR20241125151500003?section=economy\/all&amp;site=major_news02_related\">remained<\/a> in the negative for a record-long 33 consecutive months, matching the longest pessimistic streak set between June 2018 and Feb. 2021 since the survey began five decades ago.<\/p>\n<p><strong>WHY IT MATTERS<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The heightened trade exposure and deteriorating business sentiment raise concerns about Seoul&#8217;s growth prospects and leave ROK policymakers with limited options when it comes to next year&#8217;s fiscal planning as the economy faces multiple external risks. The latest signs of what the incoming U.S. administration will pursue came Tuesday, with President-elect Donald Trump <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/us\/trump-promises-25-tariff-products-mexico-canada-2024-11-25\/\">announcing<\/a> via social media his plans to impose a 25% tariff on imports from both Mexico \u2014 which will <a href=\"https:\/\/www.yna.co.kr\/view\/AKR20241126121400003?section=economy\/all&amp;site=major_news01_related\">affect<\/a> Korean companies\u2019 production bases there \u2014 and Canada, along with additional 10% tariffs on Chinese goods.<\/p>\n<p>The combination of rising trade vulnerabilities, record-length business pessimism and weakening domestic demand suggests Korean policymakers and businesses face increasingly difficult choices ahead. Goldman Sachs on Tuesday, for instance, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.yna.co.kr\/view\/AKR20241126087100008?section=economy\/all&amp;site=major_news02\">projected<\/a> just 1.8% growth for South Korea next year, citing export weakness that began in late 2024 and warning that Trump&#8217;s tariff policies represent a significant downside risk to the ROK economy. While most analysts <a href=\"https:\/\/www.news1.kr\/finance\/general-stock\/5611418\">expect<\/a> the BOK to hold rates at this week&#8217;s final meeting of the year, others <a href=\"https:\/\/www.yna.co.kr\/view\/AKR20241126087100008?section=economy\/all&amp;site=major_news02\">predict<\/a> steeper cuts will be needed soon to support growth amid slowing GDP and historically low business confidence.<\/p>\n<div class=\"content-tags\"><a href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/tag\/business-economy\/\"><span class=\"tag\">Business &amp; Economy<\/span><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/tag\/inter-korean-foreign-relations\/\"><span class=\"tag\">Inter-Korean &amp; Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>South Korea&#8217;s vulnerability to external shocks appears to have increased, with foreign trade \u2014 imports plus exports \u2014 now accounting for 31.5% of total transactions in 2022, up 2.7 percentage points from the previous year, the Bank of Korea (BOK) announced Tuesday. The trade dependence spike comes as both consumer and business confidence deteriorated, separate [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5770,"featured_media":2206908,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[30],"tags":[24,28],"class_list":["post-2207280","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-briefings","tag-business-economy","tag-inter-korean-foreign-relations"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>South Korea&#039;s economic vulnerability rises amid worsening business confidence - KOREA PRO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/11\/south-koreas-economic-vulnerability-rises-amid-worsening-business-confidence\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"South Korea&#039;s economic vulnerability rises amid worsening business confidence - KOREA PRO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"South Korea&#8217;s vulnerability to external shocks appears to have increased, with foreign trade \u2014 imports plus exports \u2014 now accounting for 31.5% of total transactions in 2022, up 2.7 percentage points from the previous year, the Bank of Korea (BOK) announced Tuesday. The trade dependence spike comes as both consumer and business confidence deteriorated, separate [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/11\/south-koreas-economic-vulnerability-rises-amid-worsening-business-confidence\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"KOREA PRO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/nknewsorg\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-11-26T23:00:25+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-11-26T09:41:40+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/assets.korearisk.com\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2024\/10\/eb-5-1255x670-1.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1255\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"670\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Jeongmin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@southkoreapro\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@southkoreapro\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"KOREA PRO\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/11\/south-koreas-economic-vulnerability-rises-amid-worsening-business-confidence\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/11\/south-koreas-economic-vulnerability-rises-amid-worsening-business-confidence\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Jeongmin\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/#\/schema\/person\/66a3b705c65f3c50916a5c126f8a718c\"},\"headline\":\"South Korea&#8217;s economic vulnerability rises amid worsening business confidence\",\"datePublished\":\"2024-11-26T23:00:25+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-11-26T09:41:40+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/11\/south-koreas-economic-vulnerability-rises-amid-worsening-business-confidence\/\"},\"wordCount\":310,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/11\/south-koreas-economic-vulnerability-rises-amid-worsening-business-confidence\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/assets.korearisk.com\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2024\/10\/eb-5-1255x670-1.png\",\"keywords\":[\"Business &amp; 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