{"id":2206875,"date":"2024-10-22T17:56:10","date_gmt":"2024-10-22T08:56:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2206875"},"modified":"2024-10-22T17:56:10","modified_gmt":"2024-10-22T08:56:10","slug":"why-the-results-of-south-koreas-by-elections-mask-growing-political-fissures","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/10\/why-the-results-of-south-koreas-by-elections-mask-growing-political-fissures\/","title":{"rendered":"Why the results of South Korea\u2019s by-elections mask growing political fissures"},"content":{"rendered":"

South Korea\u2019s ruling and opposition parties split victories in local by-elections last week, in a series of races closely watched as a barometer of public sentiment.<\/span><\/p>\n

While each side maintained control of their traditional strongholds, experts told <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i> that the elections exposed significant vulnerabilities for both major parties that could shape national politics in the coming years.<\/span><\/p>\n

The elections marked the first major electoral test for both parties since the Democratic Party\u2019s (DP) dominant victory in the April parliamentary elections, and they unfolded against a backdrop of growing tensions between the ruling People\u2019s Power Party (PPP) leadership and the Yoon administration and mounting legal challenges facing opposition DP leader Lee Jae-myung.<\/span><\/p>\n

The PPP successfully defended key positions in Busan’s Geumjeong District and Incheon’s Ganghwa County, despite the fact that President Yoon Suk-yeol’s approval rating plummeted to a record low of 22% amid scandals involving first lady Kim Keon-hee.<\/span><\/p>\n

The DP also won two county chief positions in its southwestern strongholds in South Jeolla Province, but faced an unexpected challenge from progressive alternatives and failed to win a majority of the vote.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThis election wasn’t just about holding territory. It was about managing risk,\u201d Rhee Jong-hoon, a senior consultant at Politics and Business Consulting, told <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i>. \u201cThe PPP had to navigate the first lady risk, while the DP confronted the Lee Jae-myung risk. Both parties deployed maximum resources just to maintain the status quo.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Political analysts said the muddled result means there\u2019s little incentive for either party to undertake major changes. But they noted that the risks both sides face in their respective strongholds could signal broader realignments that will sway nationwide elections in 2025 and 2027.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and ruling People Power Party Leader Han Dong-hoon meet for talks on Oct. 21 | Image: ROK Presidential Office<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n

PROGRESSIVE DIVIDE?<\/b><\/p>\n

While the DP avoided major setbacks, experts noted that the party faced unexpected challenges in a traditional stronghold.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Yeonggwang County race proved particularly revealing, with DP candidate Chang Sae-il winning with just 41.1% of the vote, despite a high turnout of 70.1%.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The Progressive Party secured 30.7%, while the Reform Korea Party (RKP) led by former Justice Minister Cho Kuk captured 26.6%, meaning a majority of voters chose progressive alternatives to the DP.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWhen a party can\u2019t break 50% in its home turf, it signals deeper structural issues,\u201d Shin Yul, a political science professor at Myongji University, told <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i>.<\/span><\/p>\n

The expert said the results show the DP faces weakening support in its southeastern stronghold, an area where it has long enjoyed \u201cdominant backing.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The RKP\u2019s showing proved particularly significant given Cho Kuk\u2019s campaign strategy of living in Yeonggwang for a month ahead of the election, demonstrating the potential for new progressive alternatives to gain traction.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThis suggests that there were quite a few voters who wanted to express their judgment of the Yoon Suk-yeol administration and various dissatisfactions with the Democratic Party, even if it didn’t affect the final outcome,\u201d according to Cho Jin-man, a professor of political science at Duksung Women\u2019s University.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, experts said the results also highlighted structural barriers facing minor parties like the RKP.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite capturing significant vote shares, these newer political forces failed to translate voter dissatisfaction into electoral victories in the by-elections.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

From left: Cho Kuk, leader of the Reform Korea Party, campaigns with Jang Hyean, candidate for Yeonggwang’s local leadership on Oct. 4; Democratic Party Leader Lee Jae-myung campaigns with Yeonggwang candidate Jang Se-il on Oct. 3; Lee Seok-ha, Yeonggwang candidate for the Progressive Party, during campaigning on Oct. 13. | Images: Reform Korea Party<\/a>, Democratic Party<\/a>, The Progressive Party<\/a>, edited by Korea Pro<\/p><\/div>\n

DEEPER PPP PROBLEMS<\/b><\/p>\n

In Busan’s Geumjeong District, a key conservative stronghold, PPP candidate Yoon Il-hyun secured victory with 61% of the vote against the DP’s Kim Kyung-ji, who garnered 39%.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

While the margin appears comfortable, experts told <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i> that the PPP\u2019s campaign efforts \u2014 including eight visits by leader Han Dong-hoon \u2014 reflect growing anxiety about the party\u2019s grip on its southeastern base and a deliberate strategy of <\/span>distancing<\/span><\/a> itself from controversies surrounding the first lady.<\/span><\/p>\n

Gallup Korea<\/span><\/a> and <\/span>Realmeter<\/span><\/a> put Yoon\u2019s approval rating at just 22% and 24%, respectively, for the third week of October, and according to <\/span>Gallup<\/span><\/a>, respondents cited the administration\u2019s failure to address economic challenges and ongoing scandals involving the first lady as the main reasons for their disapproval.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rhee of Politics and Business Consulting, told <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i> the PPP would have very nearly lost Busan\u2019s local by-elections due to public dissatisfaction with Yoon if not for Han\u2019s efforts.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cHan\u2019s initiative as party leader in differentiating himself from the first lady\u2019s scandals can be interpreted as having brought conservative voters back,\u201d he said.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, Shin of Myongji University cautioned that while Han clearly helped rally support, \u201cwe should avoid overinterpreting his impact.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Han\u2019s efforts to distance the party from the administration also highlights a growing rift between the PPP leadership and the presidential office, with the expert Cho noting that the PPP head needs to navigate supporting the president and maintaining his own political viability.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Opposition Democratic Party leader speaks during a Party Leadership Committee Meeting on Oct. 14 | Image: Democratic Party<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n

STASIS AMID UNCERTAINTY<\/b><\/p>\n

The inconclusive results of the recent by-elections have left South Korean politics in a state of uneasy equilibrium, with neither major party compelled to initiate strategic changes.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe elections were too limited in scope, and the results too ambiguous, to generate the kind of momentum that can sometimes emerge in Korean electoral politics, where outcomes lead to shifts in political conflicts and strategies,\u201d Cho said.<\/span><\/p>\n

The expert explained that a ruling party loss in Busan or DP loss in South Jeolla might have provided a catalyst for the parties to adjust their approaches.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cHowever, the even split in results, combined with divergent interpretations, offers no clear impetus for transformation,\u201d he said.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rhee of Politics and Business Consulting said President Yoon is likely to prioritize maintaining unity within the conservative base, while countering the Democratic Party\u2019s influence.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe presidential office may believe that conservative strongholds continue to support their agenda,\u201d he said.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

But the PPP still faces mounting pressure to differentiate itself from an unpopular administration while simultaneously demonstrating loyalty to the president and maintaining conservative unity.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cGiven the PPP\u2019s current difficulties, it\u2019s hard to imagine them continuing as they are now,\u201d Cho told <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i>. \u201cAfter the local elections and heading into the presidential race, they will likely seek significant changes in pursuit of their goal of retaining power.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

He said the DP will likely persist in its approach of criticizing the government and pushing to \u201chold President Yoon accountable, especially given his low approval ratings.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe Democratic Party can take solace in its performance, particularly in Busan, and is expected to proceed under Lee Jae-myung\u2019s leadership without facing significant internal strife.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

However, this strategy is complicated by uncertainties surrounding Lee Jae-myung’s political future as he faces legal challenges.<\/span><\/p>\n

While Lee was reelected as DP leader in <\/span>August<\/span><\/a>, prosecutors have recently <\/span>requested<\/span><\/a> a two-year prison sentence for him over alleged false statements he made during his 2022 presidential campaign.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

If found guilty in his final hearing on <\/span>Nov. 15<\/span><\/a>, Lee faces a triple blow: immediate loss of his parliamentary seat, a five-year ban from running for office and effective elimination from the 2027 presidential race.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The stakes extend beyond Lee’s personal political survival to that of the opposition party which he leads.<\/span><\/p>\n

Looking ahead, experts emphasized that the true test of both parties will come during the next nationwide elections \u2014 the 2025 local elections and the 2027 presidential election.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cUnless there is an impeachment of the current president, the presidential election will serve as the ultimate battleground where all these political strategies and conflicts will be assessed by the voters,\u201d Cho said.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by Bryan Betts<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Culture & Society<\/span><\/a>Domestic Politics<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

South Korea\u2019s ruling and opposition parties split victories in local by-elections last week, in a series of races closely watched as a barometer of public sentiment. While each side maintained control of their traditional strongholds, experts told Korea Pro that the elections exposed significant vulnerabilities for both major parties that could shape national politics in […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10909,"featured_media":2206877,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[25,27],"class_list":["post-2206875","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-culture-society","tag-domestic-politics"],"yoast_head":"\nWhy the results of South Korea\u2019s by-elections mask growing political fissures - KOREA PRO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/10\/why-the-results-of-south-koreas-by-elections-mask-growing-political-fissures\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why the results of South Korea\u2019s by-elections mask growing political fissures - KOREA PRO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"South Korea\u2019s ruling and opposition parties split victories in local by-elections last week, in a series of races closely watched as a barometer of public sentiment. 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