{"id":2206819,"date":"2024-10-16T14:47:31","date_gmt":"2024-10-16T05:47:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2206819"},"modified":"2024-10-16T14:47:31","modified_gmt":"2024-10-16T05:47:31","slug":"trumps-potential-return-risks-south-koreas-national-security-and-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/10\/trumps-potential-return-risks-south-koreas-national-security-and-economy\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump\u2019s potential return risks South Korea\u2019s national security and economy"},"content":{"rendered":"
Former U.S. President Donald Trump <\/span>stated<\/span><\/a> on Tuesday that South Korea would be paying $10 billion annually for the stationing of U.S. troops on the peninsula if he were still in office. Trump\u2019s remarks come as South Korea and the U.S. concluded a <\/span>defense cost-sharing agreement<\/span><\/a> last week, and he criticized the Biden administration for reducing the financial demands on Seoul compared to what his administration had sought.<\/span><\/p>\n While the <\/span>2021 defense cost-sharing deal<\/span><\/a> between the Biden and Moon Jae-in administrations still led to an increase in costs for South Korea \u2014 rising by nearly 14% in 2021 and increasing by 6.1% annually between 2022 and 2025 \u2014 Trump\u2019s demands for $10 billion annually would push this financial burden far higher.<\/span><\/p>\n With the U.S. presidential election less than a month away, Trump\u2019s potential return to the White House raises significant risks for South Korea\u2019s foreign policy, economic stability and national security. His transactional approach to alliances, emphasis on burden-sharing and unpredictable diplomacy will likely alter the future of the U.S.-ROK alliance.<\/span><\/p>\n DEFENSE COST-SHARING RISKS<\/b><\/p>\n If Trump wins the election and demands that South Korea pay $10 billion annually for U.S. troop stationing, this would far exceed the $1.14 billion that South Korea is set to pay under the current Special Measures Agreement for 2026.<\/span><\/p>\n The Trump administration previously pushed for a sharp increase in Seoul\u2019s defense contributions, with <\/span>reports<\/span><\/a> suggesting a demand of $5 billion annually, although negotiations were not finalized before he left office.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Trump will likely revive these demands if he returns to office, straining the alliance between the two countries. While President Yoon Suk-yeol has sought to <\/span>strengthen<\/span><\/a> U.S.-ROK relations, Trump\u2019s transactional approach will push Seoul into a difficult position.<\/span><\/p>\n Agreeing to such an excessive increase in defense contributions would place a heavy financial burden on South Korea at a time when its economy is already facing <\/span>challenges<\/span><\/a>. Conversely, pushing back against U.S. demands may lead to diplomatic friction, weakening the alliance during a period of <\/span>heightened threats<\/span><\/a> from North Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n Further, South Korea\u2019s efforts to foster deeper military cooperation with the U.S. will likely be undermined, particularly in terms of <\/span>joint military exercises<\/span><\/a> and interoperability. Trump has previously referred to U.S.-ROK military drills as \u201c<\/span>inappropriate, expensive and provocative war games<\/span><\/a>\u201d and unilaterally suspended them in 2018.<\/span><\/p>\n A similar move in a second Trump administration could reduce readiness and weaken deterrence on the Korean Peninsula.<\/span><\/p>\n