{"id":2206780,"date":"2024-10-11T17:08:04","date_gmt":"2024-10-11T08:08:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2206780"},"modified":"2024-10-14T17:57:00","modified_gmt":"2024-10-14T08:57:00","slug":"south-koreas-central-bank-cuts-interest-rates-to-boost-economy-and-exports","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/10\/south-koreas-central-bank-cuts-interest-rates-to-boost-economy-and-exports\/","title":{"rendered":"South Korea\u2019s central bank cuts interest rates to boost economy and exports"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Bank of Korea (BOK) <\/span>cut its benchmark interest rate<\/span><\/a> on Friday by 0.25 percentage points, lowering the rate to 3.25% in its first rate cut in over three years.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

While the move aims to support South Korea\u2019s sluggish domestic economy and boost exports, it comes with a set of risks related to financial stability, inflation and the housing market.<\/span><\/p>\n

The central bank\u2019s decision reflects the challenges it faces in addressing short-term economic needs and long-term financial risks.<\/span><\/p>\n

ECONOMIC BACKDROP<\/b><\/p>\n

The BOK\u2019s rate cut follows a prolonged period of monetary tightening that began in 2021. At the time, the central bank raised rates to <\/span>curb inflation<\/span><\/a> and control rising household debt, which resulted from the pandemic.<\/span><\/p>\n

This strategy aligned with global trends, as other major central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, also <\/span>raised rates<\/span><\/a> to manage inflation. However, as inflationary pressures eased and domestic economic growth slowed, the BOK signaled a shift toward a more accommodative policy stance.<\/span><\/p>\n

The South Korean economy has faced several challenges in 2024. Despite <\/span>strong export performance<\/span><\/a>, domestic consumption has been <\/span>weak<\/span><\/a>, and the construction sector has <\/span>struggled<\/span><\/a>. South Korea\u2019s real GDP decreased by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, reflecting stagnation in domestic demand.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, inflation, which had been a major concern, has <\/span>moderated to 1.6%<\/span><\/a> in September, forcing the BOK to adjust its policy as its priority shifted from managing inflation to boosting growth.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

South Korean apartment buildings, Nov. 1, 2022 | Image: Korea Pro<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

HOUSING MARKET UNCERTAINTY<\/b><\/p>\n

One of the primary risks associated with the rate cut is the potential for renewed instability in the housing market.<\/span><\/p>\n

Over the past year, real estate prices in the Seoul metropolitan area had begun to <\/span>cool<\/span><\/a>, partly due to higher borrowing costs. However, with lower interest rates, there is a risk that the market could once again experience a <\/span>surge in housing prices<\/span><\/a>, especially in high-demand urban areas.<\/span><\/p>\n

The BOK had previously expressed concern over the impact of monetary policy on real estate, acknowledging the delicate balance between supporting economic growth and preventing asset bubbles.<\/span><\/p>\n

Another related concern is household debt, which <\/span>surged<\/span><\/a> in mid-2024. Lower interest rates may encourage additional borrowing, increasing the risk of defaults, particularly among vulnerable borrowers. This could put further pressure on financial institutions and increase the potential for financial instability.<\/span><\/p>\n

FINANCIAL STABILITY RISKS<\/b><\/p>\n

The narrowing interest rate gap between South Korea and the U.S. also presents a challenge. The Fed\u2019s rate cut brought its benchmark rate down to 4.75% to 5%, leaving a gap of 1.75 percentage points between the two countries.<\/span><\/p>\n

This narrowed gap could lead to increased volatility in the <\/span>foreign exchange market<\/span><\/a>, with potential depreciation of the won. A weaker won may boost export competitiveness, but it could also increase import costs, particularly for energy, which would complicate efforts to manage inflation.<\/span><\/p>\n

Additionally, the rate cut may lead to increased risk-taking in financial markets. With borrowing costs lowered, investors could seek higher returns in more speculative assets, increasing the risk of asset bubbles and market instability.<\/span><\/p>\n

INFLATIONARY PRESSURES<\/b><\/p>\n

While inflation has moderated, geopolitical uncertainties, particularly in the <\/span>Middle East<\/span><\/a>, could lead to higher global oil prices, which would push up import costs for South Korea. This, in turn, could reverse some of the gains made in controlling inflation.<\/span><\/p>\n

Although the BOK has stated that it is confident that inflation will remain stable in the near term, external factors could challenge this assumption.<\/span><\/p>\n

Further, the country\u2019s core inflation, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, remains at 2%. Any further cuts to the base rate could risk fueling price increases in other sectors of the economy.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

A row of small businesses in South Korea, July 26, 2024 | Image: Korea Pro<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

SUPPORTING DOMESTIC DEMAND<\/b><\/p>\n

On the other hand, the BOK\u2019s decision to cut interest rates offers opportunities for growth. The most immediate opportunity presented is the potential to stimulate domestic demand.<\/span><\/p>\n

The South Korean economy has been struggling with weak consumption and investment, particularly in sectors such as retail and <\/span>construction<\/span><\/a>. Lower borrowing costs could help ease the financial burden on consumers, encouraging spending in areas that have seen sluggish demand.<\/span><\/p>\n

This would be particularly beneficial for small businesses, which have faced rising costs and limited access to credit despite <\/span>government initiatives<\/span><\/a> to address the latter issue.<\/span><\/p>\n

Investment in capital goods, particularly machinery and equipment, may also see a boost as businesses take advantage of lower interest rates to finance expansion and upgrade production capabilities.<\/span><\/p>\n

The construction sector, which has been in a prolonged downturn, could benefit from increased investment in both residential and commercial projects, which could provide a much-needed lift to a key component of the domestic economy.<\/span><\/p>\n

EXPORT COMPETITIVENESS<\/b><\/p>\n

A weaker won, resulting from the rate cut, could improve South Korea\u2019s export competitiveness. South Korea\u2019s export sector, particularly in industries like semiconductors and ICT, has been a <\/span>key driver<\/span><\/a> of economic growth.<\/span><\/p>\n

A more favorable exchange rate would make South Korean goods cheaper on the global market, helping to support export volumes and offset some of the weaknesses in domestic demand. This is particularly important given the global economic uncertainties that may affect trade flows in the coming year.<\/span><\/p>\n

Additionally, the rate cut aligns South Korea with global trends in monetary policy, as central banks in other major economies, with the exception of <\/span>Japan<\/span><\/a>, have also begun to ease their respective monetary policies.<\/span><\/p>\n

This could help reduce the risk of capital outflows and maintain South Korea\u2019s attractiveness as a destination for foreign investment, particularly in high-tech industries. Moreover, FTSE Russell\u2019s <\/span>decision<\/span><\/a> to include South Korea on its World Government Bond Index beginning in Nov. 2025 will likely help tc that regard.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

BOK governor Rhee Chang-yong announces the central bank’s decision to cut rates, Oct. 11, 2024 | Image: Bank of Korea<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

FORWARD-LOOKING ANALYSIS<\/b><\/p>\n

The BOK\u2019s interest rate cut reflects its attempt to support a struggling domestic economy while navigating financial risks. In the short term, the move may provide much-needed relief to consumers and businesses, particularly in sectors like construction and retail.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, the risks associated with rising household debt, potential real estate bubbles and exchange rate volatility cannot be ignored. The BOK will likely adopt a cautious approach to future rate cuts, balancing the need to stimulate growth with the risks to financial stability.<\/span><\/p>\n

External factors, such as global energy prices and trade conditions, will play a key role in shaping the central bank\u2019s policy decisions in the coming months.<\/span><\/p>\n

Looking ahead, the path forward for South Korea\u2019s economy will depend on how effectively the BOK can manage these competing priorities. While the rate cut offers opportunities for growth, the risks associated with financial stability and inflation will require careful monitoring.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by Alannah Hill<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Business & Economy<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Bank of Korea (BOK) cut its benchmark interest rate on Friday by 0.25 percentage points, lowering the rate to 3.25% in its first rate cut in over three years.\u00a0 While the move aims to support South Korea\u2019s sluggish domestic economy and boost exports, it comes with a set of risks related to financial stability, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10407,"featured_media":2206781,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[24],"class_list":["post-2206780","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-business-economy"],"yoast_head":"\nSouth Korea\u2019s central bank cuts interest rates to boost economy and exports - KOREA PRO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/10\/south-koreas-central-bank-cuts-interest-rates-to-boost-economy-and-exports\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"South Korea\u2019s central bank cuts interest rates to boost economy and exports - 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