{"id":2206668,"date":"2024-10-02T17:19:53","date_gmt":"2024-10-02T08:19:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2206668"},"modified":"2024-10-03T17:54:08","modified_gmt":"2024-10-03T08:54:08","slug":"what-south-korea-can-learn-from-israeli-missile-defense-after-irans-barrage","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/10\/what-south-korea-can-learn-from-israeli-missile-defense-after-irans-barrage\/","title":{"rendered":"What South Korea can learn from Israeli missile defense after Iran\u2019s barrage"},"content":{"rendered":"

Iran\u2019s <\/span>massive attack<\/span><\/a> on Israel on Tuesday with some 180 ballistic missiles has placed defense systems in the spotlight and raised questions anew about South Korea\u2019s own plans to intercept a similar barrage by its enemy to the north.<\/span><\/p>\n

Israel\u2019s multi-layered defenses, including the Iron Dome and Arrow systems, intercepted \u201cthe majority of incoming missiles,\u201d according to the <\/span>U.S. Department of Defense<\/span><\/a>, once again showcasing the sophistication of these systems.<\/span><\/p>\n

But many of the missiles still managed to <\/span>penetrate<\/span><\/a> Israel\u2019s defenses, an uncomfortable reality for military planners to consider given the destruction that even a single nuclear-capable missile can cause.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Iranian attack and Israeli response provide valuable insights for South Korea as it faces <\/span>growing missile threats<\/span><\/a> from North Korea.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

As the DPRK enhances its capabilities, already more advanced than those of Iran, Seoul will have to consider how to improve its own missile interceptors to provide insurance in case of a similar barrage while reckoning with the need to prevent any similar outbreak of hostilities with its nuclear neighbor.<\/p>\n

INCREASING THREAT<\/b><\/p>\n

North Korea\u2019s missile development has accelerated over the years, posing a credible threat to South Korea, Japan and the continental U.S.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pyongyang now possesses a <\/span>diverse array<\/span><\/a> of ballistic missiles, including <\/span>nuclear-capable systems<\/span><\/a>. The DPRK\u2019s ability to launch missiles from <\/span>mobile platforms<\/span><\/a> and <\/span>submarines<\/span><\/a> further challenges South Korea\u2019s defense systems.<\/span><\/p>\n

North Korea has also been developing <\/span>hypersonic glide vehicles<\/span><\/a> that are more difficult to detect and intercept, though the DPRK has not yet demonstrated that this advanced technology is ready for the battlefield.<\/span><\/p>\n

At present, Seoul\u2019s <\/span>Korea Air and Missile Defense<\/span><\/a> (KAMD) framework provides multi-layered coverage using three different interceptor systems \u2014 <\/span>L-SAM<\/span><\/a>, <\/span>PAC-3<\/span><\/a> and <\/span>THAAD<\/span><\/a> \u2014 the last operated by U.S. forces. These systems can intercept different types of missiles at different stages of flight to provide better defense.<\/span><\/p>\n

As Pyongyang continues to upgrade its capabilities, Seoul will likely need to enhance its systems to maintain an effective defense posture.<\/span><\/p>\n

But this necessity also requires South Korea to confront an uncomfortable reality: Missile defense is inherently expensive, and the financial burden can quickly escalate during extended conflicts.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Israel\u2019s Iron Dome system costs between <\/span>$40,000 and $50,000 per interceptor<\/span><\/a>, while the Arrow system incurs <\/span>millions per interception<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korea faces similar financial pressures with its L-SAM system, which is being developed by the Agency for Defense Development. The cost of defending against a large-scale missile barrage from North Korea would likely strain the ROK\u2019s financial and military resources, especially if the DPRK military deploys a mix of ballistic, cruise and hypersonic missiles.<\/span><\/p>\n

As Seoul refines its missile defense strategy, it will need to weigh the financial sustainability of the system, in particular as experts <\/span>raise doubts<\/span><\/a> about whether interceptors can truly stop a nuclear attack.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

South Korea unveils its domestically produced Long-Range Surface-to-Air Missile (L-SAM) at Seoul Air Base, Sept. 26, 2023 | Image: Korea Pro<\/p><\/div>\n

DEFENSE SHORTCOMINGS<\/b><\/p>\n

The missile barrage against Israel exposed a significant challenge for missile defense systems: saturation attacks.<\/span><\/p>\n

While Israel\u2019s defense systems intercepted most of the missiles, a small number still managed to breach the defenses, highlighting the difficulty of responding to overwhelming numbers of missiles launched simultaneously.<\/span><\/p>\n

North Korea will likely employ a similar tactic against South Korea in the event of hostilities, and this raises questions about whether South Korea\u2019s KAMD system could effectively handle a multi-platform, saturation-style attack.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Preparing for this possibility will likely involve assessing the limits of current systems and exploring ways to bolster South Korea\u2019s ability to respond to simultaneous missile launches from various directions.<\/span><\/p>\n

Another concern for South Korea is the reliability and accuracy of its missile defense capabilities.<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korea\u2019s L-SAM system has <\/span>successfully intercepted missiles<\/span><\/a> at high altitudes, but its real-world effectiveness remains unproven. Hypersonic and low-flying cruise missiles, for instance, present unique challenges due to their speed and maneuverability.<\/span><\/p>\n

Israel\u2019s use of <\/span>AI-driven interception technology<\/span><\/a> and advanced radar systems offers lessons in improving missile defense capabilities. These advancements allow for faster detection and response times, increasing the accuracy and efficiency of missile interceptions.<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korea, which is developing the <\/span>L-SAM II system<\/span><\/a>, will also likely look to incorporate AI to enhance its defense capabilities, particularly in dealing with more advanced threats from North Korea, like hypersonic missiles.<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korea\u2019s efforts to develop glide-phase interceptors capable of engaging hypersonic missiles in their mid-flight phase will be crucial in countering this growing threat. However, Seoul will need to invest in next-generation radar systems and acquire U.S. consent for technology-sharing, which will likely be challenging.<\/span><\/p>\n

GOING ON THE OFFENSIVE<\/b><\/p>\n

South Korea\u2019s missile defense strategy also relies on the <\/span>Kill Chain<\/span><\/a> preemptive strike platform. This system is designed to neutralize North Korean missile launch sites before missiles can be fired, offering an offensive counterbalance to the ROK\u2019s defensive systems.<\/span><\/p>\n

This system gives South Korea the option to launch preemptive strikes if intelligence suggests an imminent missile launch from North Korea. However, preemptive actions carry <\/span>significant risks<\/span><\/a>, including the potential to escalate a conflict.<\/span><\/p>\n

Balancing preemptive capabilities with robust defensive systems will likely be a central consideration in South Korea\u2019s evolving missile defense strategy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Seoul will likely continue investing in missile defense and offensive capabilities, such as <\/span>ground-to-ground missiles<\/span><\/a> and <\/span>surveillance satellites<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Additionally, intelligence sharing, particularly with <\/span>the U.S. and Japan<\/span><\/a>, will remain a crucial part of South Korea\u2019s strategy to ensure it can detect and respond to missile threats in real-time.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol inspects members of the armed forces while he stands in front of South Korea’s latest ballistic missile, the Hyunmoo 5, Oct. 1, 2024 | Image: ROK Presidential Office<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

PUBLIC READINESS AND CONFIDENCE<\/b><\/p>\n

Tuesday\u2019s missile attack on Israel also carries lessons for how South Korea protects its civilian populations in a conflict.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Israelis, accustomed to frequent rocket attacks, are generally prepared to follow government instructions during missile threats.<\/span><\/p>\n

In contrast, many South Koreans have become desensitized to emergency alerts due to their <\/span>frequent use for non-military incidents<\/span><\/a>, such as North Korean balloon launches or weather updates.<\/span><\/p>\n

Additionally, participation in civil defense drills in South Korea remains low, with many citizens not taking part.<\/span><\/p>\n

This presents a challenge for the South Korean government, which will need to enhance public readiness for potential missile barrages from North Korea. Ensuring that citizens take emergency alerts seriously and understand the importance of sheltering during missile attacks will be critical.<\/span><\/p>\n

Managing public expectations regarding the capabilities and limitations of missile defense systems will also be vital. In the event of a missile breach, maintaining public confidence and preventing widespread panic will require a focused effort to strengthen both communication strategies and civil defense infrastructure.<\/span><\/p>\n

LOOKING AHEAD<\/b><\/p>\n

Going forward, South Korea will likely focus on enhancing its missile defense capabilities to address the growing threats from North Korea. While L-SAM and THAAD provide solid coverage, North Korea\u2019s development of advanced missiles will require continuous improvements in detection and interception systems.<\/span><\/p>\n

AI, next-generation radar systems and stronger intelligence-sharing with the U.S. and Japan will be key areas of focus as South Korea adapts to evolving threats.<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korea\u2019s defense strategy will also continue to balance offensive and defensive measures. The development of L-SAM II and ongoing investment in the Kill Chain preemptive strike system will likely remain central to this approach.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yet none of this will be cheap, nor is it guaranteed to work \u2014 something that Seoul cannot afford when a North Korean ballistic missile salvo could include nuclear warheads.<\/span><\/p>\n

This means that South Korea cannot rely on missile defenses alone and will likely focus much of its efforts on another objective: deterring Pyongyang from launching an Iran-style salvo in the first place, in partnership with its ally the U.S.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by Bryan Betts<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Defense & Security<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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