{"id":2206636,"date":"2024-09-30T16:40:24","date_gmt":"2024-09-30T07:40:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2206636"},"modified":"2024-10-01T14:46:01","modified_gmt":"2024-10-01T05:46:01","slug":"why-japans-new-prime-minister-could-pave-way-for-better-ties-with-south-korea","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/09\/why-japans-new-prime-minister-could-pave-way-for-better-ties-with-south-korea\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Japan\u2019s new prime minister could pave way for better ties with South Korea"},"content":{"rendered":"

Shigeru Ishiba\u2019s <\/span>election<\/span><\/a> as president of Japan\u2019s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has paved the way for him to be sworn in as prime minister on Tuesday, a leadership change with major implications for ties with neighboring South Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n

While Ishiba\u2019s more moderate stance on historical grievances between Seoul and Tokyo may open avenues for improved bilateral relations, his aggressive security policies, including calls for an \u201cAsian NATO,\u201d could exacerbate tensions.<\/span><\/p>\n

His cabinet appointments, including defense and foreign ministers with strong security backgrounds, signal that Japan may pursue a more assertive regional strategy, directly affecting South Korea\u2019s strategic and economic interests.<\/span><\/p>\n

HISTORICAL ISSUES AND DIPLOMATIC OPPORTUNITIES<\/b><\/p>\n

Ishiba is known for his <\/span>moderate views<\/span><\/a> on Japan\u2019s wartime legacy and has openly criticized efforts by conservative factions within the LDP to downplay Japan\u2019s militaristic past. He has so far refused to visit the Yasukuni Shrine, a controversial site that enshrines Class-A war criminals, setting him apart from <\/span>previous Japanese leaders<\/span><\/a> who have inflamed tensions by visiting.<\/span><\/p>\n

This stance is significant given the long-standing historical grievances that continue to strain relations between South Korea and Japan.<\/span><\/p>\n

For South Korea, Ishiba\u2019s willingness to acknowledge Japan\u2019s wartime responsibilities could lead to more productive dialogue between the two nations, particularly on issues related to <\/span>wartime forced labor<\/span><\/a> and reparations.<\/span><\/p>\n

These issues have been at the center of diplomatic tensions, especially since South Korea\u2019s Supreme Court <\/span>ordered<\/span><\/a> Japanese companies to compensate forced labor victims in 2018. Improved dialogue on these sensitive topics could ease tensions that have hampered cooperation between the two countries for years.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, there are still significant obstacles to improved relations.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

For one, <\/span>conservative factions<\/span><\/a> within the LDP remain influential, and their resistance to acknowledging Japan\u2019s wartime actions could limit Ishiba\u2019s ability to pursue reconciliation fully.<\/span><\/p>\n

Further, South Korea\u2019s main opposition Democratic Party, which has been critical of President Yoon Suk-yeol\u2019s perceived concessions to Japan, will <\/span>likely demand<\/span><\/a> more than symbolic gestures from Ishiba before easing its criticism.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Diplomatic engagement may improve, but meaningful reconciliation will require sustained efforts from both sides.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Japanese ruling Liberal Democratic Party lawmakers applaud Shigeru Ishiba, Sept. 27, 2024 | Image: Liberal Democratic Party of Japan<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

DEFENSE POLICY AND REGIONAL SECURITY RISKS<\/b><\/p>\n

Ishiba\u2019s defense policies prioritize regional security and a stronger military posture for Japan, creating opportunities for increased trilateral cooperation with Seoul and Washington but risking pushback amid fears among some South Koreans about a militarizing Japan.<\/span><\/p>\n

One of his most notable proposals is calling for the creation of an \u201cAsian NATO\u201d to counter growing threats from North Korea and China. Ishiba argues that Japan and other regional powers must collaborate more closely on defense to ensure stability in East Asia.<\/span><\/p>\n

In an <\/span>essay<\/span><\/a> written for the Hudson Institute, Ishiba outlined his vision for this alliance, which would involve deeper security cooperation and potentially the deployment of U.S. nuclear assets in the region.<\/span><\/p>\n

For Seoul, stronger <\/span>trilateral security ties<\/span><\/a> between the U.S., South Korea and Japan would likely enhance regional deterrence, particularly against North Korea\u2019s missile and nuclear threats.<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korea has already worked closely with the U.S. on strengthening deterrence capabilities, as evidenced by the <\/span>Nuclear Consultative Group<\/span><\/a>. Ishiba\u2019s push for an Asian NATO could align with Yoon\u2019s efforts to bolster collective security frameworks in the region.<\/span><\/p>\n

The U.S. has already taken measures to more visibly deploy <\/span>nuclear-capable assets<\/span><\/a>, such as bombers and submarines, in and around South Korea in the past two years. Expanding this to Japan could provide an added layer of deterrence against North Korea\u2019s growing missile arsenal.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, Ishiba\u2019s defense policies also carry significant risks. South Korea will likely view Tokyo\u2019s increased military assertiveness with caution, particularly given the legacy of Japan\u2019s colonial occupation of the Korean Peninsula.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ishiba\u2019s willingness to consider introducing U.S. nuclear weapons to Japan as part of his deterrence strategy is likely to raise concerns among <\/span>some segments<\/span><\/a> in South Korea, where there is deep sensitivity to any expansion of Japan\u2019s military capabilities.<\/span><\/p>\n

TAKESHI IWAYA: FOREIGN POLICY IMPACT<\/b><\/p>\n

Takeshi Iwaya<\/span><\/a> is expected to serve as Japan\u2019s next foreign minister, and he is known for his <\/span>strong stance<\/span><\/a> on regional security, particularly in response to North Korean missile threats.<\/span><\/p>\n

During his tenure as defense minister from 2018 to 2019, Iwaya was instrumental in <\/span>shaping Japan\u2019s defense policies<\/span><\/a> in the face of the DPRK\u2019s rapidly advancing missile arsenal. He was also <\/span>critical<\/span><\/a> of South Korea\u2019s decision to end the General Security of Military Information Agreement in 2019, calling the move \u201cregrettable\u201d and emphasizing the importance of intelligence-sharing between Seoul and Tokyo.<\/span><\/p>\n

As foreign minister, Iwaya will likely prioritize security cooperation with South Korea, particularly in areas related to intelligence-sharing and defense coordination. His experience in defense matters positions him to push for closer trilateral cooperation between the U.S., South Korea and Japan.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, Iwaya\u2019s blunt rhetoric and firm stance on security issues may also create friction in diplomatic relations, especially if historical grievances remain unresolved.<\/span><\/p>\n

While his focus on security cooperation could benefit both countries, his past criticisms of South Korean policies suggest that diplomatic tensions could resurface if sensitive issues, such as wartime reparations and territorial disputes, are not carefully managed.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Former Japanese defense minister Takeshi Iwaya speaks while campaigning for Shigeru Ishiba, Sept. 13, 2024 | Image: Takeshi Iwaya via Facebook<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

GEN NAKATANI: DEFENSE MODERNIZATION RISKS<\/b><\/p>\n

Gen Nakatani<\/span><\/a>, who is expected to serve as defense minister in Ishiba\u2019s cabinet, is another key figure whose policies will have a direct impact on South Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n

A former soldier who previously served as defense minister from 2014 to 2016, Nakatani is known for his hawkish views on defense and his support for <\/span>revising Japan\u2019s pacifist constitution<\/span><\/a> to allow for a more proactive military role. Nakatani has consistently pushed for the modernization of Japan\u2019s Self-Defense Forces (JSDF), particularly in response to growing threats from North Korea and China.<\/span><\/p>\n

One of Nakatani\u2019s most controversial positions involved his statement at 2015 bilateral defense talks that Seoul\u2019s jurisdiction is <\/span>limited to the southern part of the Demilitarized Zone<\/span><\/a>, which implied Tokyo may not feel obligated to seek Seoul\u2019s approval for military actions in North Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n

Unless resolved, Nakatani\u2019s position could lead to significant diplomatic friction, as South Korea considers the <\/span>entire Korean Peninsula<\/span><\/a> to be within its sovereign territory under its constitution.<\/span><\/p>\n

His push for JSDF modernization may also increase competition with South Korea in the global defense market, particularly in sectors such as missile defense and naval technology.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Both Japan and South Korea are leaders in these areas, and Nakatani\u2019s focus on expanding Japan\u2019s military capabilities could lead to tensions as both countries compete for arms exports and defense contracts.<\/span><\/p>\n

ECONOMIC POLICIES AND IMPACT ON SOUTH KOREA<\/b><\/p>\n

Ishiba has been a proponent of <\/span>aggressive monetary easing<\/span><\/a> to stimulate Japan\u2019s economy and combat deflationary pressures. He has called for expanding Japan\u2019s monetary base and keeping borrowing costs low to spur growth.<\/span><\/p>\n

Such policies could negatively impact South Korean exporters if they lead to a weaker yen, thereby making Japanese goods more competitive in global markets. Key ROK industries, such as electronics, automobiles and consumer goods, may face increased competition from Japanese companies that benefit from a devalued yen.<\/span><\/p>\n

This could lead to a loss of market share for South Korean firms, particularly in regions where both countries compete for exports.<\/span><\/p>\n

But there are also potential opportunities. South Korean companies that are <\/span>integrated<\/span><\/a> into Japan\u2019s supply chains, particularly in high-tech sectors like semiconductors and advanced manufacturing, may benefit from increased demand for technology and components as Japan\u2019s economy recovers.<\/span><\/p>\n

If Japan\u2019s economic stimulus measures lead to increased industrial production, South Korean firms could see growth in exports to Japan, particularly in sectors where the two countries collaborate closely.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Former Japanese defense minister Gen Nakatani, Aug. 26, 2024 | Image: Gen Nakatani via Facebook<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

LOOKING AHEAD<\/b><\/p>\n

Ishiba\u2019s call for stronger regional security frameworks, including his advocacy for an \u201cAsian NATO,\u201d is unlikely to materialize in the near future, largely due to the <\/span>U.S. stance<\/span><\/a> against creating such an alliance.<\/span><\/p>\n

Washington has consistently emphasized the importance of bilateral and trilateral security cooperation, but it has stopped short of endorsing a multilateral defense treaty in Asia, which could cross a <\/span>diplomatic red line<\/span><\/a> with China.<\/span><\/p>\n

Even so, if Japan pushes for an expanded security dialogue with the U.S. and South Korea under Ishiba, it could still be enough to trigger diplomatic tensions with Beijing. This would likely raise the stakes for South Korea, which must carefully balance its relationships with the U.S. and China.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ishiba\u2019s push to explore nuclear-sharing agreements with the U.S. remains a more symbolic stance than a practical policy shift. The U.S. has consistently rejected nuclear-sharing with any nation outside of its NATO alliance, and Japan\u2019s Komeito party, the LDP\u2019s junior coalition partner, is <\/span>unlikely to support<\/span><\/a> such a move given Japan\u2019s non-nuclear principles.<\/span><\/p>\n

Instead, it could lead to Japan\u2019s <\/span>participation<\/span><\/a> in the U.S.-ROK Nuclear Consultative Group, which could further strengthen trilateral coordination on nuclear deterrence. This development would bolster South Korea\u2019s existing security framework, offering new avenues for collaboration in missile defense and intelligence-sharing.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ultimately, Ishiba\u2019s leadership presents risks and opportunities for South Korea, and the coming months will reveal how much latitude Ishiba has within his party to pursue his security and economic agenda.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by Bryan Betts<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Business & Economy<\/span><\/a>Defense & Security<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Shigeru Ishiba\u2019s election as president of Japan\u2019s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has paved the way for him to be sworn in as prime minister on Tuesday, a leadership change with major implications for ties with neighboring South Korea. While Ishiba\u2019s more moderate stance on historical grievances between Seoul and Tokyo may open avenues for […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10407,"featured_media":2206638,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[24,26,28],"yoast_head":"\nWhy Japan\u2019s new prime minister could pave way for better ties with South Korea - KOREA PRO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/09\/why-japans-new-prime-minister-could-pave-way-for-better-ties-with-south-korea\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why Japan\u2019s new prime minister could pave way for better ties with South Korea - KOREA PRO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Shigeru Ishiba\u2019s election as president of Japan\u2019s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has paved the way for him to be sworn in as prime minister on Tuesday, a leadership change with major implications for ties with neighboring South Korea. 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