{"id":2206204,"date":"2024-08-19T15:22:41","date_gmt":"2024-08-19T06:22:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2206204"},"modified":"2024-08-20T17:52:23","modified_gmt":"2024-08-20T08:52:23","slug":"lee-jae-myungs-re-election-intensifies-risks-for-businesses-in-south-korea","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/08\/lee-jae-myungs-re-election-intensifies-risks-for-businesses-in-south-korea\/","title":{"rendered":"Lee Jae-myung\u2019s re-election intensifies risks for businesses in South Korea"},"content":{"rendered":"

Lee Jae-myung <\/span>secured a second term<\/span><\/a> as leader of South Korea\u2019s main opposition Democratic Party (DP) on Sunday, solidifying his influence and positioning himself as a key contender for the 2027 presidential election.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, his re-election is likely to contribute to the intensification of political polarization and legislative gridlock, which pose significant risks for businesses operating in South Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n

As Lee\u2019s leadership strengthens, the DP and the presidential office will likely remain at loggerheads over economic policies, creating uncertainty for businesses in the coming years.<\/span><\/p>\n

STRENGTHENED PRO-LEE FACTION<\/b><\/p>\n

Lee\u2019s re-election has reaffirmed his dominance within the party and strengthened his faction, which now exerts considerable influence over the party\u2019s direction. This faction\u2019s growing power is evidenced by the overwhelming support Lee received in the leadership election, in which he secured <\/span>85% of the vote<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

This level of support indicates that Lee\u2019s vision, particularly his <\/span>\u201cbasic society\u201d<\/span><\/a> welfare plan that centers on implementing universal basic income (UBI) and expanding welfare provisions, has gained deep-rooted support from the party.<\/span><\/p>\n

The pro-Lee faction\u2019s influence is further highlighted by the filling of key positions with Lee\u2019s <\/span>close allies<\/span><\/a>. These include Kim Min-seok, who topped the vote for the party\u2019s Supreme Council with 18%, and Jeon Hyun-hee, who came in second with nearly 16%.<\/span><\/p>\n

This consolidation of power within the DP suggests that the party will pursue a more confrontational stance against the Yoon administration, setting the stage for heightened political battles over economic policy, labor rights and welfare reform.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Democratic Party floor leader Park Chan-dae presides over a meeting to discuss economic issues, Aug. 7, 2024 | Image: Democratic Party of Korea<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

POLITICAL POLARIZATION<\/b><\/p>\n

Contentious <\/span>impeachment hearings<\/span><\/a> initiated by the DP against key Yoon administration officials have exemplified political polarization in recent years, a problem that is likely to intensify following Lee\u2019s re-election.<\/span><\/p>\n

In response, Yoon will likely continue to liberally exercise his veto power. In the first half of his presidency, Yoon vetoed <\/span>16 bills<\/span><\/a>, including a DP-sponsored bill that proposed cash handouts of up to 350,000 won (approximately $260) to every South Korean citizen.<\/span><\/p>\n

This bill, along with another that sought to limit businesses\u2019 ability to make damage claims against workers during legitimate disputes, was met with strong opposition from the presidential office, which labeled the measures as unconstitutional and detrimental to economic stability.<\/span><\/p>\n

These repeated clashes have led to a significant legislative gridlock, where essential economic reforms and business-related legislation are delayed or entirely blocked. The ongoing tension suggests that this gridlock will likely persist, making it increasingly difficult for businesses to operate in a stable regulatory environment.<\/span><\/p>\n

QUID PRO QUO<\/b><\/p>\n

Lee\u2019s push for \u201cbasic society\u201d welfare policies, including UBI and expanded social programs, presents potential long-term risks for businesses. However, in the short term, Yoon will likely block these policies after consistently <\/span>vetoing<\/span><\/a> similar welfare bills, such as the proposed cash handouts.<\/span><\/p>\n

As a result, businesses may not face immediate financial impacts from these expansive social programs. The greater concern for businesses lies in the DP\u2019s likely response to these vetoes. In retaliation for the blocked welfare initiatives, the DP may refuse to support the Yoon administration\u2019s proposed tax cuts, including reductions in <\/span>inheritance, gift<\/span><\/a>, <\/span>corporate income<\/span><\/a> and <\/span>financial investment income<\/span><\/a> taxes.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Yoon administration, through the finance ministry, introduced 191 tax law amendments in July, but 168 of these amendments require approval from the National Assembly, where the DP holds the majority.<\/span><\/p>\n

The lack of tax relief will be particularly challenging for companies already dealing with <\/span>rising labor costs<\/span><\/a> and stringent <\/span>regulatory requirements<\/span><\/a>. Further, the absence of these tax reductions could deter foreign investment, as global companies may find the South Korean market less attractive due to the sustained high tax environment and ongoing political uncertainty.<\/span><\/p>\n

Given the DP\u2019s focus on funding expansive welfare programs after 2027, when the DP hopes that Lee will be elected president, there is a considerable risk that it may block or delay these tax reforms. This deadlock may lead to prolonged uncertainty as businesses wait for clarity on tax policy while navigating the potential impacts of increased social spending.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol formally meets with Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung for the first time since the former\u2019s inauguration at the presidential office in Yongsan, April 29, 2024 | Image: ROK Presidential Office<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

LABOR RISING<\/b><\/p>\n

Lee\u2019s reelection will likely embolden the country\u2019s labor unions and catalyze a more aggressive push for workers\u2019 rights. His <\/span>labor-friendly agenda<\/span><\/a>, which includes stricter labor regulations and <\/span>enhanced protections<\/span><\/a> for workers, aligns with the DP\u2019s broader commitment to addressing income inequality and improving working conditions.<\/span><\/p>\n

This approach is evident in the party\u2019s support for the controversial \u201c<\/span>yellow envelope bill<\/span><\/a>,\u201d which aims to restrict businesses from making damage claims against workers during legitimate strikes \u2014 a bill that the president has vetoed twice, citing concerns about its potential to encourage illegal strikes and disrupt the industrial ecosystem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lee\u2019s support for pro-labor policies may lead to a <\/span>surge<\/span><\/a> in labor activism as unions and workers feel more empowered to demand better wages, benefits and working conditions. This will likely increase pressure on businesses to comply with stricter labor standards, potentially leading to more frequent and prolonged strikes.<\/span><\/p>\n

As unions push for better compensation packages, businesses may be forced to increase wages and benefits, particularly in sectors where labor is a substantial portion of operating expenses. This risk is particularly acute in the manufacturing, construction and logistics sectors, where union presence is strong and worker grievances are often more pronounced.<\/span><\/p>\n

Further, the introduction of stricter labor regulations will likely lead to increased compliance costs and legal challenges, particularly for businesses that fail to meet industrial safety standards or are targeted by more aggressive union actions.<\/span><\/p>\n

ENERGY POLICY UNCERTAINTY<\/b><\/p>\n

The stark contrast between Yoon\u2019s pro-nuclear energy stance and Lee\u2019s preference for renewable energy sources creates significant uncertainty for businesses in South Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yoon has been a strong advocate for expanding South Korea\u2019s <\/span>nuclear energy capacity<\/span><\/a>, seeing it as a critical component of the country\u2019s energy security and a way to reduce reliance on fossil fuels. His administration has pushed for the <\/span>construction<\/span><\/a> of new nuclear power plants and the extension of existing facilities, arguing that nuclear energy is essential for maintaining a stable and cost-effective energy supply.<\/span><\/p>\n

In contrast, Lee and the DP favor a transition toward <\/span>renewable energy<\/span><\/a>, including solar, wind and hydroelectric power. Lee has been <\/span>critical<\/span><\/a> of nuclear energy, citing concerns about safety, environmental impact and long-term sustainability.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lee\u2019s strengthened position in the DP and his presidential ambitions mean that the party will continue to oppose Yoon\u2019s energy policy. This signals that the country\u2019s energy policy may shift drastically again as it did in 2022 if Lee wins the presidency in 2027.<\/span><\/p>\n

Industries that have invested in nuclear energy-related infrastructure or partnerships might find themselves at a disadvantage if the government shifts its focus to renewables. The uncertainty surrounding future energy policy may deter long-term investments in the energy sector, as companies may be hesitant to commit to projects without clarity on the regulatory landscape.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

The Barakah Nuclear Power Plant, July 4, 2023 | Image: Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation via Twitter<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

OUTLOOK NOT SO GOOD<\/b><\/p>\n

The deepening polarization between the DP and the Yoon administration suggests that the coming years will be characterized by frequent legislative standoffs, increased regulatory scrutiny and potential shifts in economic policy, particularly in areas such as welfare, labor rights and environmental regulations.<\/span><\/p>\n

Given Lee\u2019s strong influence within his party and his likely candidacy in the 2027 presidential election, businesses should anticipate a continued focus on policies that prioritize social welfare and labor rights over corporate interests.<\/span><\/p>\n

This will likely manifest in higher taxes, stricter labor regulations and increased costs related to environmental compliance. The potential for escalated labor movements may further complicate operational stability. Looking ahead, the business community should brace for uncertainty and volatility.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by Alannah Hill<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Business & Economy<\/span><\/a>Domestic Politics<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Lee Jae-myung secured a second term as leader of South Korea\u2019s main opposition Democratic Party (DP) on Sunday, solidifying his influence and positioning himself as a key contender for the 2027 presidential election. 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