{"id":2206079,"date":"2024-08-07T18:02:14","date_gmt":"2024-08-07T09:02:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2206079"},"modified":"2024-08-08T18:24:02","modified_gmt":"2024-08-08T09:24:02","slug":"how-south-koreas-tax-overhaul-could-exacerbate-sky-high-real-estate-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/08\/how-south-koreas-tax-overhaul-could-exacerbate-sky-high-real-estate-prices\/","title":{"rendered":"How South Korea\u2019s tax overhaul could exacerbate sky-high real estate prices"},"content":{"rendered":"

South Korea\u2019s finance ministry <\/span>announced<\/span><\/a> significant revisions to the country\u2019s tax laws on July 25, marking the first major overhaul in 24 years, including substantial reforms to the inheritance and gift tax system.<\/span><\/p>\n

These adjustments, set to take effect in 2025, aim to modernize the tax framework to reflect current economic realities and reduce the burden on taxpayers.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

However, the reduction in inheritance and gift taxes could have far-reaching implications for the economy, potentially fueling real estate investment that will exacerbate housing inequality and trigger market corrections.<\/span><\/p>\n

OVERVIEW OF TAX ADJUSTMENTS<\/b><\/p>\n

One of the key adjustments in the South Korean government\u2019s <\/span>tax reform<\/span><\/a> is the increase in the per-child deduction limit for inheritance tax from about $36,300 (50 million won) to $363,000 (500 million won). This tenfold increase is intended to ease the financial burden on families with multiple children.<\/span><\/p>\n

Additionally, the top inheritance tax rate will be lowered from 50% to 40%, aligning South Korea more closely with other Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries, where the average maximum inheritance tax rate is <\/span>26%<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Another notable change is the abolition of the additional 20% tax surcharge on inheritances from major shareholders. This measure aims to encourage smoother transitions of business ownership and reduce the tax liabilities of inheritors.<\/span><\/p>\n

Further, the deduction limit for business inheritance tax for companies that increase dividends will be doubled from about $43.6 million (60 billion won) to $87.2 million (120 billion won). This adjustment is designed to support business continuity and foster corporate growth.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Apartment buildings in Seoul, Nov. 1, 2022 | Image: Korea Pro<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

IMPACT ON REAL ESTATE<\/b><\/p>\n

South Korea\u2019s tax adjustments will likely increase disposable wealth among high-income earners, which could lead to a notable shift in investment preferences.<\/span><\/p>\n

Historically, South Koreans with high net worth have <\/span>tended to invest in real estate<\/span><\/a>, viewing it as a stable and appreciating asset. With the abolition of the 20% surcharge on major shareholder inheritances and the doubling of the deduction limit for business inheritance tax, there will likely be an influx of capital into the real estate market.<\/span><\/p>\n

This shift is particularly relevant in the context of South Korea\u2019s financial markets, which have experienced significant <\/span>volatility<\/span><\/a>. For instance, recent concerns over a potential recession in the U.S. and the Bank of Japan\u2019s decision to <\/span>raise interest rates<\/span><\/a> have increased the volatility of global financial markets, impacting South Korea\u2019s stock market as well.<\/span><\/p>\n

In such a scenario, real estate emerges as a preferred investment due to its perceived stability compared to more volatile financial assets. This anticipated investment shift from financial markets to real estate will likely have a profound impact on real estate prices in South Korea.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In South Korea, the real estate market is already experiencing upward pressure on prices. Over the past year, apartment rent prices in Seoul have risen continuously. As of July, the <\/span>average rent<\/span><\/a> per 3.3 square meters (one pyong) was $17,500 (24.17 million won), up from $16,200 (22.41 million won) a year earlier.<\/span><\/p>\n

Affluent districts like Gangnam have seen even higher average rents, reaching about $26,400 (36.28 million won) per pyong.<\/span><\/p>\n

Additionally, the <\/span>real estate supply constraints<\/span><\/a> in Seoul and other metropolitan areas contribute to the inflationary pressures on housing prices. The shortage of rental listings, decreasing in Seoul from 35,000 in early January to around 26,000 by early August, highlights the limited supply.<\/span><\/p>\n

This supply-demand imbalance, combined with increased investment from high-income earners, may lead to significant price increases.<\/span><\/p>\n

The impact of these price increases would be most acutely felt by younger and middle-income families, who are already struggling with affordability issues in the housing market. Rising real estate prices will make homeownership increasingly unattainable.<\/span><\/p>\n

Moreover, the likely increase in real estate investment risks creating property bubbles, potentially undermining the Yoon administration\u2019s attempts at <\/span>stabilizing prices<\/span><\/a> in this sector.<\/span><\/p>\n

MONETARY POLICY INFLUENCE<\/b><\/p>\n

South Korea\u2019s persistent <\/span>weak domestic consumption<\/span><\/a> and the U.S. Federal Reserve\u2019s <\/span>projected rate cut<\/span><\/a> will likely compel the Bank of Korea (BOK) to follow suit to maintain economic stability and competitiveness.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lower interest rates typically increase market liquidity, which may further exacerbate inflationary pressures in the real estate market. Lower interest rates typically reduce borrowing costs, encouraging both individuals and investors to take out loans for real estate purchases.<\/span><\/p>\n

Increased liquidity will likely intensify these trends, making housing even more expensive and less accessible for the average consumer.<\/span><\/p>\n

The socioeconomic consequences of these tax adjustments and potential monetary policy changes are profound. One major risk is escalated public discontent. When significant portions of the population find it increasingly difficult to secure affordable housing, it can lead to widespread dissatisfaction.<\/span><\/p>\n

The <\/span>rising cost of living<\/span><\/a>, coupled with <\/span>reduced purchasing power<\/span><\/a>, may heighten feelings of economic insecurity and inequality, which will likely manifest in decreased support for the government and its initiatives.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Main opposition Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung and other party members stage a protest against President Yoon Suk-yeol, June 1, 2024 | Image: Democratic Party of Korea<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

POLITICAL AND LEGISLATIVE CHALLENGES<\/b><\/p>\n

The implementation of South Korea\u2019s tax adjustments hinges on the National Assembly\u2019s cooperation. Of the 191 tax law amendments proposed by the finance ministry, 168 <\/span>require approval<\/span><\/a> from the National Assembly.<\/span><\/p>\n

The ruling People Power Party, holding 108 seats, faces a significant challenge in implementing the reforms, especially if the main opposition Democratic Party (DP) opposes them. However, political tension between the ruling and opposition parties has been significant.<\/span><\/p>\n

In the two months since the 22nd National Assembly was promulgated, there hasn\u2019t been a single law passed with bipartisan support. Instead, the DP has used its legislative majority to railroad bills. Meanwhile, President Yoon Suk-yeol has used his <\/span>veto power<\/span><\/a> 15 times so far to block DP-sponsored bills.<\/span><\/p>\n

Moreover, the DP will likely oppose the government\u2019s tax adjustments because they will likely disproportionately benefit the wealthy at the <\/span>expense of the broader population<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

ANTICIPATED MARKET REACTIONS<\/b><\/p>\n

In the short term, the tax adjustments will likely have immediate impacts on real estate prices and investment behaviors if approved by the National Assembly, as investors increasingly view real estate as a preferable investment compared to more volatile financial markets.<\/span><\/p>\n

As a result, the influx of capital will likely drive up property prices further, exacerbating the current trend of rising rents and making home ownership even more challenging for younger and middle-income families.<\/span><\/p>\n

In the long term, rising real estate prices will likely increase the gap between high-income earners and the rest of the population, leading to increased social and economic stratification.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Potential interest rate adjustments by the BOK, influenced by global economic conditions and domestic market pressures, will likely exacerbate inflationary pressures in the housing market.<\/span><\/p>\n

This trend may have lasting effects on social cohesion and mobility, as younger and middle-income families find it increasingly difficult to afford housing.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by Bryan Betts<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Business & Economy<\/span><\/a>Domestic Politics<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

South Korea\u2019s finance ministry announced significant revisions to the country\u2019s tax laws on July 25, marking the first major overhaul in 24 years, including substantial reforms to the inheritance and gift tax system. 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