{"id":2205671,"date":"2024-07-04T13:29:46","date_gmt":"2024-07-04T04:29:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2205671"},"modified":"2024-07-05T17:56:33","modified_gmt":"2024-07-05T08:56:33","slug":"south-koreas-economic-optimism-masks-growing-risks-and-vulnerabilities","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/07\/south-koreas-economic-optimism-masks-growing-risks-and-vulnerabilities\/","title":{"rendered":"South Korea\u2019s economic optimism masks growing risks and vulnerabilities"},"content":{"rendered":"

South Korean Prime Minister Han Duck-soo <\/span>presented an optimistic economic outlook<\/span><\/a> during a Cabinet meeting led by President Yoon Suk-yeol on Wednesday, citing strong growth rates and employment figures to project decreasing interest rates.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, this positive narrative contrasts sharply with several key economic indicators that reveal significant risks and vulnerabilities in the ROK economy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Han emphasized South Korea\u2019s <\/span>projected 2.6% growth rate<\/span><\/a>, positioning it just behind the U.S., and pointed to <\/span>record-high employment levels<\/span><\/a> as evidence of economic recovery. On interest rates, he expressed optimism, suggesting they could only decrease from the current <\/span>3.5% level<\/span><\/a>, potentially starting in the latter half of 2024.<\/span><\/p>\n

The government\u2019s perspective extends beyond current indicators. Han credited Yoon with \u201cnormalizing\u201d the economy and contrasted the current economic state with that inherited from the previous Moon Jae-in administration, which he characterized as having \u201calarming deficits and necessitating multiple interest rate hikes.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

This official narrative paints a picture of an economy that has overcome its challenges and is now on a path of growth and stability, suggesting confidence in the government\u2019s economic management and optimism about future prospects.<\/span><\/p>\n

But this optimistic outlook overlooks the impact of weak business sentiment, the depreciation of the South Korean won and rising levels of household debt, all of which muddy the economic picture and require careful policy responses.<\/span><\/p>\n

WEAKENING BUSINESS SENTIMENT<\/b><\/p>\n

The manufacturing sector, a crucial component of South Korea\u2019s economy, shows signs of strain. Monday\u2019s <\/span>Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry survey<\/span><\/a> revealed that the business sentiment index for the third quarter of this year has declined by 10 points, reflecting growing pessimism among the 2,238 surveyed manufacturing companies.<\/span><\/p>\n

The businesses attributed this downturn to high interest rates and rising costs, which are squeezing profit margins and dampening investment plans.<\/span><\/p>\n

Currency pressures present another concern. The South Korean won has significantly <\/span>depreciated against the U.S. dollar<\/span><\/a>. This has increased import costs of raw materials, partially spurring the declining business sentiment index.<\/span><\/p>\n

While economic theory suggests that a depreciating currency may be beneficial for exporters by making goods cheaper in foreign markets, this has not been the case due to the concurrent and steeper depreciation of the Japanese yen.<\/span><\/p>\n

This situation is particularly challenging for South Korea\u2019s automotive, steel and semiconductor sectors, which compete directly with Japan in many high-value export categories.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

The Bank of Korea, June 27, 2024 | Image: Korea Pro<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

CURRENCY GAMES<\/b><\/p>\n

Moreover, the South Korean won has not depreciated against the U.S. dollar as much as the Japanese yen has because of Seoul\u2019s strategy of buoying the won via currency swap deals.<\/span><\/p>\n

On June 21, the Bank of Korea (BOK) and the national pension fund agreed to raise the upper limit of their <\/span>foreign currency swap deal<\/span><\/a> to $50 billion from $35 billion \u2014 effectively dumping the dollar in foreign exchange markets \u2014 to better cope with market volatility.<\/span><\/p>\n

While this strategy has successfully floated the won as intended, it has had the unintended effect of eroding small businesses\u2019 export advantage, requiring the government to announce on Wednesday a multi-billion dollar <\/span>comprehensive support package<\/span><\/a> for small businesses.<\/span><\/p>\n

Further, the steeper decline of the Japanese yen has added pressure to South Korea\u2019s current account, which measures the balance of trade in goods and services, due to an increase in outbound tourism, particularly to Japan.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Japan National Tourism Organization <\/span>reported<\/span><\/a> on June 19 that more than 738,000 South Korean tourists visited the country in May, topping the charts. Chinese tourists came in second place with about 545,000 visitors.<\/span><\/p>\n

Moreover, South Korea saw <\/span>net capital outflows<\/span><\/a> from January to May.<\/span><\/p>\n

While the country experienced significant foreign investments in domestic securities, which totaled a net inflow of $21.09 billion, these were outweighed by the substantial capital outflows from residents investing in overseas securities, which amounted to $27.94 billion during the same period.<\/span><\/p>\n

The outflows are partly driven by investor preference for U.S. markets, where equities and bonds offer attractive returns. The <\/span>S&P 500\u2019s 33% gain since Oct. 2023<\/span><\/a> and <\/span>U.S. Treasury yields of around 5%<\/span><\/a> contrast sharply with the South Korean market\u2019s performance and policy-sensitive three-year bond yields that fell from 3.55% in April to <\/span>3.22% on Tuesday<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

FINANCIAL STABILITY CONCERNS<\/b><\/p>\n

Beyond immediate economic indicators, several factors suggest hidden vulnerabilities in South Korea\u2019s financial stability.<\/span><\/p>\n

A recent surge in home-backed loans has raised alarms about household debt levels. The Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) <\/span>urged<\/span><\/a> local banks on Wednesday not to expand household loans \u201cexcessively\u201d and emphasized the need for rigorous loan review practices based on borrowers\u2019 repayment capabilities rather than collateral value.<\/span><\/p>\n

The FSS stated that banks extended household loans by $4.3 billion (6 trillion won) in June, following a $3.7 billion (5.1 trillion won) increase in May, prompting the financial regulator to call for stricter implementation of debt service ratio regulations and announce plans for bank inspections to ensure compliance.<\/span><\/p>\n

Foreign reserve management presents another area of concern. Due to the government\u2019s foreign currency swap with the national pension fund, South Korea\u2019s foreign reserves have declined for three consecutive months, reaching <\/span>$412.2 billion<\/span><\/a> at the end of last month. This decrease may impact the country\u2019s ability to respond to economic shocks or currency pressures.<\/span><\/p>\n

To address these challenges, the government has implemented measures such as <\/span>extending foreign exchange market trading hours<\/span><\/a>. While intended to enhance market competitiveness and align with global standards, investors may see this move as a superficial solution to deeper economic issues.<\/span><\/p>\n

Moreover, while the extended hours will likely result in additional trading volume, questions remain about its long-term effectiveness in addressing fundamental economic challenges.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

A stylized illustration of Seoul | Image: Korea Pro<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

POLICY CHALLENGES AHEAD<\/b><\/p>\n

South Korea faces several policy dilemmas that may significantly impact its economic trajectory.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

For one, the country\u2019s high interest rate presents a primary challenge. The BOK has maintained its key interest rate at 3.5% since Jan. 2023, the highest since 2008. While high rates have helped to control inflation and support the won, they also burden households and businesses with increased borrowing costs.<\/span><\/p>\n

While any decision to lower rates will likely stimulate economic activity, it risks further currency depreciation and potential capital outflows, particularly to the U.S., where investors can enjoy higher returns.<\/span><\/p>\n

Fiscal policy presents another dilemma. The government faces pressure to increase spending to support economic growth and address social issues. However, expanding fiscal measures will likely lead to higher government debt, potentially impacting South Korea\u2019s credit rating and investor confidence.<\/span><\/p>\n

Balancing stimulating the economy through government spending and maintaining fiscal discipline will likely be challenging, especially given the uncertain global economic outlook and the need to prepare for long-term challenges such as an aging population<\/a> and pension system sustainability.<\/span><\/p>\n

ECONOMIC REALITY CHECK<\/b><\/p>\n

The divergence between the South Korean government\u2019s optimistic economic narrative and the underlying economic indicators presents significant long-term risks.<\/span><\/p>\n

This disconnect may lead to delayed or inadequate policy responses to emerging economic challenges.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

And if the gap between official statements and economic realities widens, it may also erode public and investor confidence, with lasting implications for South Korea\u2019s economic trajectory and its position in the global economy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by Alannah Hill<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Business & Economy<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

South Korean Prime Minister Han Duck-soo presented an optimistic economic outlook during a Cabinet meeting led by President Yoon Suk-yeol on Wednesday, citing strong growth rates and employment figures to project decreasing interest rates. However, this positive narrative contrasts sharply with several key economic indicators that reveal significant risks and vulnerabilities in the ROK economy. 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