{"id":2205659,"date":"2024-07-03T13:39:05","date_gmt":"2024-07-03T04:39:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2205659"},"modified":"2024-07-04T13:29:33","modified_gmt":"2024-07-04T04:29:33","slug":"south-korea-braces-for-economic-fallout-as-new-wave-of-baby-boomers-retires","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/07\/south-korea-braces-for-economic-fallout-as-new-wave-of-baby-boomers-retires\/","title":{"rendered":"South Korea braces for economic fallout as new wave of baby boomers retires"},"content":{"rendered":"

The looming retirement of a new wave of baby boomers could threaten South Korea\u2019s economic growth and domestic demand, according to a new <\/span>study<\/span><\/a> released by the Bank of Korea (BOK), potentially leading to a further decline in the country\u2019s growth potential.<\/span><\/p>\n

Second-generation baby boomers, which the study defines as those born between 1964 and 1974, are the largest single generation in South Korea, comprising 9.54 million people or 18.6% of the total population. As they reach the legal <\/span>retirement age of 60<\/span><\/a> over the next 11 years, their exit from the labor market is expected to have significant consequences for the economy.<\/span><\/p>\n

In comparison, first-generation baby boomers, born between 1955 and 1963, comprise 7.05 million people, or 13.7% of the population.<\/span><\/p>\n

According to the BOK study released Monday, the retirement of first-generation baby boomers lowered the country\u2019s annual economic growth rate by 0.33 percentage points from 2015 to 2023. With the second generation even larger, the potential risks to economic growth are more pronounced.<\/span><\/p>\n

The study presents three scenarios for the projected impact on the annual economic growth rate from 2024 to 2034:<\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. If the current employment rate is maintained, the growth rate is expected to decline by 0.38 percentage points.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
  2. If government policies help to raise the employment rate, the decline will be reduced by 0.14 percentage points.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
  3. If the government implements robust institutional changes, the decline is estimated to be 0.22 percentage points.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    The study also identifies mitigating factors that could help counteract the negative economic impact, such as the second-generation baby boomers\u2019 strong willingness to continue working after retirement, relatively high human capital and significant consumption capacity.<\/span><\/p>\n

    \"\"

    An illustration of a shopping mall with few shoppers | Image: Korea Pro<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

    SCENARIOS AND IMPLICATIONS<\/b><\/p>\n

    The three scenarios presented in the BOK\u2019s study have varying implications for South Korea\u2019s economy.<\/span><\/p>\n

    In the first scenario, where the current employment rate is maintained, the expected 0.38 percentage point decrease in the economic growth rate will likely lead to a slowdown in job creation, reduced business investments and a decrease in overall economic activity.<\/span><\/p>\n

    The second scenario, which assumes an increase in the employment rate through policy support, could mitigate the negative impact on the economic growth rate.<\/span><\/p>\n

    For instance, by implementing policies encouraging second-generation baby boomers to continue working beyond the legal retirement age, such as offering <\/span>flexible work arrangements<\/span><\/a> or providing tax incentives for employers who hire older workers, the declining growth rate could be reduced by 0.14 percentage points compared to the first scenario.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Other policies include providing tax breaks for consumption, encouraging the development of industries catering to the needs of older consumers, or implementing <\/span>social welfare programs<\/span><\/a> that support the aging population.<\/span><\/p>\n

    In the third scenario, the BOK considers the potential impact of strong institutional changes, including <\/span>raising the legal retirement age<\/span><\/a> or providing more comprehensive support for older workers. By adopting such measures, South Korea could further mitigate the decline in the economic growth rate, limiting the decrease to 0.22 percentage points compared to the first scenario.<\/span><\/p>\n

    However, regardless of which scenario plays out, assuming all other factors remain constant, South Korea\u2019s economy is projected to begin a long-term decline. This decline will likely significantly constrain total consumption as retiring second-generation boomers face reduced incomes.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Notably, South Korea\u2019s elderly poverty rate, which stands at <\/span>43.4%<\/span><\/a>, is the highest among Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development nations.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Weakening consumption will, in turn, lead to reduced demand for goods and services, affecting businesses across various sectors. For instance, the retail, hospitality and entertainment industries may face challenges as older consumers tend to spend less on discretionary items.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Although the BOK\u2019s study identifies several mitigating factors that could help offset the economic risks, much of this will depend on sound government policy that requires significant voter buy-in.<\/span><\/p>\n

    For instance, younger voters will likely resist policies such as further raising the retirement age, as many will perceive such policies as being detrimental to their own well-being.<\/span><\/p>\n

    \"\"

    An illustration of retired senior citizens in a park | Image: Korea Pro<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

    STRUCTURAL RISKS<\/b><\/p>\n

    This retirement scale is larger than that of first-generation baby boomers, and the mismatch between human capital and jobs after retirement will likely further weaken growth potential. Moreover, the country\u2019s low birth rate, which President Yoon Suk-yeol described as a \u201c<\/span>national emergency<\/span><\/a>,\u201d exacerbates the decline in the labor force, compounding the economic challenges.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Aside from the likely decrease in the elderly’s propensity to consume, insufficient preparation for old age will likely strain the social welfare system and limit their ability to contribute to the economy through consumption.<\/span><\/p>\n

    To address these risks, policymakers will likely continue to prioritize employment for the elderly. As raising the legal retirement age may face significant resistance from younger voters, the South Korean government will likely focus on ad hoc solutions, such as implementing flexible work arrangements, providing incentives for employers to hire and retain older workers and helping baby boomers retrain to find age-friendly employment.<\/span><\/p>\n

    However, the South Korean government\u2019s most significant challenge will likely be <\/span>reforming<\/span><\/a> the pension system, health care and long-term care services. Further, the government\u2019s track record in its attempts to boost the country\u2019s birth rate, a key mitigating factor, has been dismal.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Faced with such challenges, South Korean policymakers may consider strengthening the country\u2019s social safety net and implementing targeted measures to support vulnerable elderly populations. However, such policies would require significant financial resources, and falling tax revenues may constrict South Korea\u2019s ability to fund these initiatives.<\/span><\/p>\n

    The country\u2019s tax revenues have <\/span>been declining<\/span><\/a> due to weak consumption and reduced exports, and this trend will likely continue due to the falling birth rate. Additionally, the <\/span>offshoring of production facilities<\/span><\/a> by South Korean businesses to countries like the U.S. and Vietnam may further erode the tax base.<\/span><\/p>\n

    CAUTIONARY TALE<\/b><\/p>\n

    South Korea faces a daunting array of risks that threaten its economic stability and growth prospects. The challenges posed by the second-generation baby boomers\u2019 exit from the workforce will likely have far-reaching consequences that will reverberate for decades.<\/span><\/p>\n

    While the government may attempt to mitigate the negative impact of this generational shift by focusing on ad hoc economic policies, such efforts will likely be insufficient given the sheer magnitude of the challenges at hand.<\/span><\/p>\n

    As the second-generation baby boomers enter retirement, their impact on South Korea\u2019s economy will be closely scrutinized by policymakers, businesses and experts worldwide. The country\u2019s struggle to navigate this demographic shift may serve as a cautionary tale for other nations facing similar challenges in the years to come.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Edited by Alannah Hill<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

    Business & Economy<\/span><\/a>Culture & Society<\/span><\/a>Domestic Politics<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    The looming retirement of a new wave of baby boomers could threaten South Korea\u2019s economic growth and domestic demand, according to a new study released by the Bank of Korea (BOK), potentially leading to a further decline in the country\u2019s growth potential. 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