{"id":2205595,"date":"2024-06-27T15:15:27","date_gmt":"2024-06-27T06:15:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2205595"},"modified":"2024-06-28T17:22:26","modified_gmt":"2024-06-28T08:22:26","slug":"putins-pyongyang-visit-heightens-south-koreas-security-dilemma","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/06\/putins-pyongyang-visit-heightens-south-koreas-security-dilemma\/","title":{"rendered":"Putin\u2019s Pyongyang visit heightens South Korea\u2019s security dilemma"},"content":{"rendered":"

Russian leader Vladimir Putin\u2019s visit to Pyongyang last week and his signing of a <\/span>comprehensive strategic partnership treaty<\/span><\/a> with Kim Jong Un marks a further deterioration in the regional security situation and heightens South Korea\u2019s security conundrum.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, contrary to what Putin claims to want, the treaty will likely result in South Korea aligning more closely with the U.S., Japan and its Western partners.<\/span><\/p>\n

PUTIN AND KIM\u2019S CALCULATION<\/b><\/p>\n

At face value, the partnership treaty is not new. It simply restores the <\/span>Treaty of Friendship and Mutual Assistance<\/span><\/a> that was in place from 1961 until 2000. Nor is the ROK the main focus of this agreement. Instead, it aims to strengthen Russia\u2019s position and build opposition to what Moscow, Pyongyang and Beijing see as U.S. efforts to cling to global primacy.<\/span><\/p>\n

The agreement represents a significant raising of stakes by Putin, reflecting both confidence and weakness on the part of the Russian leader.<\/span><\/p>\n

During Putin\u2019s one-day visit, he and Kim focused almost entirely on security. While there were other agreements on issues such as tourism, customs and a bridge over the Tumen River, those appear minor.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kim will be very pleased with the outcome. The pomp, ostentation and arranged crowds allowed him to show off his statesmanship to his people and the world. Although Putin brought with him much of his Cabinet, Kim insisted on greeting Putin one-on-one and ensured video footage focused solely on the two leaders.<\/span><\/p>\n

Moreover, regaining Russia\u2019s commitment to provide assistance in the event of war is a significant achievement for Kim. While the treaty\u2019s terms are vague and leave room for backsliding, it strengthens the DPRK\u2019s position on the peninsula and returns it to its Cold War position of being able to play off its two patrons, China and Russia, against each other.<\/span><\/p>\n

The pomp and ceremony also work for Putin, who is keen to refute the suggestion that Russia is isolated. However, his calculation is more complex and riskier.<\/span><\/p>\n

Putin\u2019s immediate goal appears to be acquiring further material assistance for his invasion of Ukraine. Despite Russian troops\u2019 advancement on the frontlines, the war is still not going well for Russia as the U.S. and other NATO countries appear to have become less restrained in their supply of arms to Kyiv.<\/span><\/p>\n

Putin will be happy to get Kim\u2019s <\/span>full-throated support<\/span><\/a> for his invasion of Ukraine and can expect a continued or even greater flow of <\/span>DPRK ammunition and weapons<\/span><\/a> and potentially personnel.<\/span><\/p>\n

Establishing closer ties with Pyongyang also carries a message for Beijing \u2014 both Russia and the DPRK have other options besides Chinese support.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Chinese and Russian leaders Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin meet in Moscow, March 21, 2023 | Image: Russian Presidential Executive Office<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

PUTIN\u2019S WARNING<\/b><\/p>\n

More broadly, the visit underlines Putin\u2019s determination to ratchet up opposition to what he sees as U.S.-led aggression and to warn others not to provide further arms to Ukraine.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Putin has repeatedly threatened Ukraine\u2019s European supporters over the last two years, and his agreement with Kim extends that intimidation to South Korea and Japan. Although Seoul has not provided arms directly to Ukraine, South Korean ammunition has found its way to Ukrainian soldiers via third parties, and Putin has taken note of that.<\/span><\/p>\n

While he did state after leaving Pyongyang that South Korea had \u201cnothing to worry about\u201d because the treaty would come into effect only if South Korea invaded the North \u2014 something which Putin said he didn\u2019t think South Korea planned to do \u2014 he warned that any decision by Seoul to provide arms to Ukraine \u201cwould be a very big mistake.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

His implicit warning was that if NATO troops set foot in Ukraine or if South Korea provides arms to the Eastern European country, he and Kim could take action on the Korean Peninsula, thereby confirming that the European and Northeast Asian security theaters are now linked.<\/span><\/p>\n

Even though South Korea is not Russia\u2019s primary concern, it suits Moscow to increase tension on the Korean Peninsula to distract the U.S. from Ukraine and disincentivize South Korea from sending arms to Kyiv.<\/span><\/p>\n

HIGH-STAKES GAMBLE<\/b><\/p>\n

Putin has long been a proponent of high-stakes strategy, and it has often worked in his favor. His sojourn to Pyongyang may typify that behavior, but it can also be interpreted as a sign of weakness.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

When he last visited North Korea in 2000 to meet with Kim Jong Il, the previous 1961 security treaty was still in place. That he felt the need to visit again 24 years later, cap in hand for help in Ukraine, indicates how dramatically the power balance has changed between Russia and the DPRK.<\/span><\/p>\n

For most of the last three decades, Russia opposed the DPRK\u2019s nuclear weapons program and joined the U.S. and China in <\/span>imposing U.N. sanctions<\/span><\/a> on the North\u2019s nuclear weapons development as recently as 2017. Now, Russia finds itself relying on the DPRK nearly as much as North Korea relies on Russia.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

For now, Putin appears to have stopped short of committing to provide Kim with high-tech assistance, stating only that \u201cThe Russian Federation does not exclude the development of military-technical cooperation with the DPRK.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

While the statement might be a warning to South Korea and other countries not to provide weapons to Ukraine, it also implies that Putin has not yet given Kim everything the latter wanted.<\/span><\/p>\n

This provides Putin with options, including the threat of helping the DPRK to develop long-range intercontinental ballistic missiles, satellites and nuclear weapons. Considering the types of technology Moscow could provide to North Korea, it becomes clear that Putin\u2019s aim during his visit was not Seoul but Washington.<\/span><\/p>\n

The move is high-risk in that it will almost certainly drive the U.S., South Korea, Japan and NATO closer together. The first sign of this already became evident with the three nations’ predictably furious <\/span>joint statement<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Putin appears to calculate that gains in both the short term (more support in Ukraine) and long term (weakening U.S. global leadership) will offset the risk of driving U.S. allies closer together.<\/span><\/p>\n

Further, the move may not go down well in Beijing. The <\/span>BBC reported<\/span><\/a> that China explicitly asked Putin in May not to visit Pyongyang. Whether true or not, China\u2019s official reaction to the visit has been cool. There has been no substantive comment from officials and coverage by Chinese state-controlled media and TV has been minimal.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

China\u2019s relationship with the DPRK has long been supportive but ambivalent and often strained.\u00a0 Its strategic interest is to ensure its close neighbor is stable and aligned with China.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

China is pursuing its own <\/span>balancing act<\/span><\/a> with regard to the invasion of Ukraine, painting itself as neutral while profiting from Russia\u2019s need for trade and enjoying the pressure the war places on the U.S.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

However, China is also interested in pursuing good relations with Western countries and, in recent months, has been trying to improve relations with the ROK and Japan. Kim\u2019s effusive support for the Ukraine war casts an awkward spotlight on China\u2019s own fence-sitting.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the DPRK has proved itself once again adroit at balancing relations with both Russia and China \u2014 securing critical economic and political support from both, allowing it to preserve its regime while leaving its people in sustained poverty and oppression.<\/span><\/p>\n

DPRK trade with China has already been declining in recent months as the relationship with Russia has strengthened, and the North is likely to see even more oil and food flowing from Russia in the coming months.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol participates in the NATO summit in Lithuania on July 12, 2023 | Image: ROK Presidential Office<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

SOUTH KOREA\u2019S SECURITY DILEMMA<\/b><\/p>\n

Together, China, Russia and the DPRK form an unstable triangle, bound together by shared hostility toward the U.S., but are still some way from acting as a coordinated bloc of allies.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Putin\u2019s visit has starkly exposed the security weakness Seoul has faced for decades.<\/span><\/p>\n

In preparing their response, ROK leaders would do well to consider that South Korea is almost certainly not Putin\u2019s target or even top of his mind, but it certainly suits him for Seoul to have to think hard about its options for his own security purposes.<\/span><\/p>\n

Russia and China are keen to retain access to the ROK\u2019s wealthy market and world-leading technology. Both likely hope that Seoul will decide not to react precipitately but to preserve measured diplomatic and economic ties with both countries.<\/span><\/p>\n

SEOUL\u2019S LIKELY RESPONSE<\/b><\/p>\n

Realistically, however, it is hard to see how the Yoon administration could or should choose such a path. Yoon has dedicated his foreign policy to defending liberal values and the \u201crules-based order.\u201d He had already risked equities with the U.S. by not providing weapons to Ukraine and had warned Russia even before the Putin visit that his position could change.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Immediately following the visit, National Security Adviser Chang Ho-jin said that the ROK would <\/span>review<\/span><\/a> its policy of arming Ukraine. A failure to respond firmly would be seen as a soft win for Russia<\/span><\/p>\n

Whether or not Seoul decides to ship arms and munitions to Ukraine, Putin\u2019s visit will compel the ROK to move closer to the U.S., Japan and its other Western partners. This week\u2019s joint statement by the U.S., South Korea and Japan already points in that direction.<\/span><\/p>\n

Even before Putin\u2019s visit, the ROK, along with Japan, Australia and New Zealand, had been invited to the next <\/span>Indo-Pacific Four meeting<\/span><\/a> in Washington in July. Additionally, Seoul expressed interest in joining AUKUS Pillar 2, which Japan has already been invited to join.<\/span><\/p>\n

Going forward, it seems all but inevitable that South Korea will further formalize its trilateral security partnership with the U.S. and Japan, and strengthen cooperation with the <\/span>European Union<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Putin has made risky gambles in the past, which didn\u2019t end in his favor. This may be another example.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by John Lee<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Defense & Security<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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