{"id":2205523,"date":"2024-06-20T18:05:15","date_gmt":"2024-06-20T09:05:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2205523"},"modified":"2024-06-21T17:24:00","modified_gmt":"2024-06-21T08:24:00","slug":"south-korea-faces-geopolitical-balancing-act-as-russia-and-north-korea-align","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/06\/south-korea-faces-geopolitical-balancing-act-as-russia-and-north-korea-align\/","title":{"rendered":"South Korea faces geopolitical balancing act as Russia and North Korea align"},"content":{"rendered":"

Russian leader Vladimir Putin\u2019s <\/span>visit<\/span><\/a> to Pyongyang marks a deepening of ties between Moscow and Pyongyang. During the summit, Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un signed a <\/span>comprehensive strategic partnership treaty<\/span><\/a>, which states that the two countries will \u201cimmediately provide military assistance\u201d in the case of an attack on one of them.<\/span><\/p>\n

A day after Russia and the DPRK announced their comprehensive strategic partnership treaty, South Korea expressed \u201cserious concern\u201d and condemned the treaty, and a high-level ROK government official stated Seoul will \u201c<\/span>reconsider\u201d<\/span> its current policy of not sending lethal weapons directly to Ukraine.<\/p>\n

This development poses significant <\/span>risks<\/span><\/a> to South Korea\u2019s security, including the potential for increased military cooperation, technology transfer and challenges to Seoul\u2019s defense strategy and regional stability.<\/span><\/p>\n

AMBIGUITY OF MUTUAL ASSISTANCE<\/b><\/p>\n

The \u201cmilitary assistance\u201d clause in the Russia-North Korea strategic partnership agreement raises concerns due to its ambiguous language. The agreement states that if either party is subjected to \u201caggression,\u201d the other will provide military and other assistance by all available means, in accordance with Article 51 of the U.N. Charter and the laws of both countries.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, the lack of clarity in defining what constitutes aggression leaves room for interpretation and potential misuse. This ambiguity would allow Russia to justify the provision of various forms of assistance to North Korea under the guise that it is fulfilling its obligations as part of the agreement.<\/span><\/p>\n

North Korea\u2019s support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been a key factor in the strengthening of ties between the two countries. Pyongyang has provided Russia with a significant number of <\/span>artillery shells<\/span><\/a> and <\/span>ballistic missiles<\/span><\/a>, helping to sustain Moscow\u2019s military campaign.<\/span><\/p>\n

In return, Russia may offer assistance in advancing North Korea\u2019s weapons programs. This potential technology transfer will significantly enhance North Korea\u2019s military capabilities, posing a grave threat to South Korea\u2019s security.<\/span><\/p>\n

One concrete example of how Russia might exploit the ambiguity of the \u201cmilitary assistance\u201d clause is by helping North Korea <\/span>evade sanctions<\/span><\/a>. Putin has already expressed his intention to assist North Korea in circumventing sanctions as much as possible, which will likely include formalizing arrangements for North Korean workers to be sent to Russia.<\/span><\/p>\n

Moreover, Russia <\/span>vetoed<\/span><\/a> in April the renewal of the U.N. Security Council\u2019s annual mandate for the Panel of Experts tasked with monitoring the implementation of sanctions against North Korea.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

North Korea launches its largest-ever intercontinental ballistic missile, Nov. 18, 2022 | Image: KCNA<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

EMBOLDENED NORTH KOREA<\/b><\/p>\n

The <\/span>termination of the Comprehensive Military Agreement<\/span><\/a> between the two Koreas, which had established a no-fly zone over the border area and restricted military activities near the Demilitarized Zone, has created volatility.<\/span><\/p>\n

This development provides Russia a fertile excuse to offer military and technological assistance to North Korea under the pretense of keeping South Korea in check as Moscow continues its invasion of Ukraine.<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korea must now contend with the possibility of a more technologically advanced and better-equipped North Korean military backed by Russian expertise and resources. This development may require Seoul to reassess its defense priorities and allocate additional resources to counter the growing threat posed by the Pyongyang-Moscow partnership.<\/span><\/p>\n

Moreover, Russia\u2019s potential provision of <\/span>advanced satellite technology<\/span><\/a> to North Korea would give Pyongyang a significant advantage in intelligence gathering and surveillance, making it more difficult for South Korea to detect and respond to potential threats.<\/span><\/p>\n

This increased capability would also enable North Korea to conduct more precise and effective strikes against South Korean targets, further complicating Seoul\u2019s defense efforts.<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korea may need to strengthen its <\/span>missile defense systems<\/span><\/a>, enhance its intelligence-sharing capabilities with the U.S. and Japan and invest in advanced military technologies to maintain its edge over the evolving North Korean threat.<\/span><\/p>\n

SOUTH KOREA\u2019S GEOPOLITICAL CHALLENGES<\/b><\/p>\n

South Korea finds itself having to balance its desire to maintain a working relationship with Russia while defending its national interests and upholding its commitments to the international community.<\/span><\/p>\n

Putin <\/span>expressed appreciation<\/span><\/a> for South Korea\u2019s decision not to provide direct military aid to Ukraine two weeks ago. However, he also issued a veiled warning, noting that Moscow is monitoring South Korea\u2019s arms sales to the U.S., which, in turn, <\/span>supplies<\/span><\/a> these weapons to Ukraine.<\/span><\/p>\n

This statement highlights the potential for Russia to use its growing influence over North Korea as a means to pressure South Korea and undermine its support for Ukraine.<\/span><\/p>\n

Simultaneously, South Korea\u2019s ongoing arms sales to <\/span>Poland and Romania<\/span><\/a> have significant implications for the region. South Korean defense minister Shin Won-sik secured agreements for the sale of K2 battle tanks to Poland. Additionally, Romania agreed to purchase K9 howitzers, totaling approximately $920 million.<\/span><\/p>\n

As Poland and Romania modernize their militaries in response to Russian aggression in Ukraine, these sales demonstrate South Korea\u2019s growing role as a key arms supplier in the region. However, these deals may also draw Russia\u2019s ire and lead to further pressure on South Korea through its partnership with North Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

U.S., South Korean and Japanese naval vessels conduct a joint maritime exercise off Jeju Island, Jan. 17, 2024 | Image: ROK Joint Chiefs of Staff<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

LONG-TERM SECURITY IMPLICATIONS<\/b><\/p>\n

As Russia and North Korea strengthen their ties, South Korea may face increasing challenges in garnering international support against North Korea\u2019s provocations. With Russia\u2019s backing, North Korea may feel emboldened to engage in more aggressive behavior, such as nuclear and missile tests, cyberattacks, or military posturing along the border.<\/span><\/p>\n

In such scenarios, South Korea will likely find it difficult to rally the international community to impose sanctions or take other measures to hold North Korea accountable, as Russia\u2019s veto power in the U.N. Security Council would hinder any meaningful action.<\/span><\/p>\n

Moreover, the growing alignment between Russia and North Korea may lead to potential shifts in regional power dynamics. As Russia seeks to expand its influence in the Indo-Pacific region, it may use its partnership with North Korea as a means to <\/span>counter<\/span><\/a> the U.S.-led alliance system and challenge the existing security architecture.<\/span><\/p>\n

This could lead to a more assertive North Korea, backed by Russian support, which would pose a significant threat to South Korea\u2019s security and stability. In such a scenario, South Korea may need to reassess its strategic partnerships and explore new avenues for cooperation with like-minded countries to maintain a balance of power in the region.<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korea will also likely actively pursue <\/span>diplomatic efforts<\/span><\/a> to maintain open channels of communication with China. By engaging in dialogue and seeking common ground, South Korea will likely attempt to mitigate the potential risks posed by the Russia-North Korea partnership.<\/span><\/p>\n

LOOKING AHEAD<\/b><\/p>\n

South Korea will likely adopt multiple approaches to safeguard its security interests and maintain stability in the region. While the exact course of action remains uncertain, several key elements are likely to shape Seoul\u2019s response in the coming months and years.<\/span><\/p>\n

First, South Korea will seek to strengthen its alliance with the U.S., regardless of which party secures the White House in November\u2019s election. This will likely involve increased military cooperation, joint exercises and the deployment of advanced defense systems to enhance South Korea\u2019s defense posture.<\/span><\/p>\n

While a second Trump presidency might lead to contentious <\/span>defense cost-sharing negotiations<\/span><\/a> between Washington and Seoul, South Korea will likely accept U.S. demands for it to pay substantially more for joint defense as Moscow and Pyongyang strengthen their partnership.<\/span><\/p>\n

Second, South Korea may intensify its diplomatic efforts to engage with key regional actors, particularly China, Japan and <\/span>Australia<\/span><\/a>, to build a united front against the destabilizing effects of the Russia-North Korea partnership.<\/span><\/p>\n

By working closely with these countries, South Korea can help to apply pressure on North Korea to refrain from aggressive actions and encourage Russia to exercise restraint in its support for Pyongyang.<\/span><\/p>\n

Additionally, South Korea will likely continue to expand its arms exports to countries seeking to bolster their defenses against Russian aggression, as well as invest in cutting-edge military technologies to maintain its qualitative edge.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, South Korea\u2019s efforts to counter the Russia-North Korea partnership may depend on the domestic political landscape.<\/span><\/p>\n

With President Yoon Suk-yeol\u2019s approval rating at <\/span>26%<\/span><\/a> according to Gallup Korea, and his successor likely to come from the main opposition Democratic Party, which has expressed <\/span>concerns<\/span><\/a> about South Korea\u2019s deteriorating ties with China and Russia during Yoon\u2019s tenure, the long-term sustainability of the current approach remains uncertain.<\/span><\/p>\n

Whether South Korea can effectively navigate the challenges posed by the Russia-North Korea partnership and maintain a consistent policy beyond Yoon\u2019s presidency remains to be seen, as the country\u2019s political leadership and priorities may shift in the coming years.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by Alannah Hill<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Defense & Security<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Russian leader Vladimir Putin\u2019s visit to Pyongyang marks a deepening of ties between Moscow and Pyongyang. During the summit, Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un signed a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty, which states that the two countries will \u201cimmediately provide military assistance\u201d in the case of an attack on one of them. A […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10407,"featured_media":2205524,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[26,28],"yoast_head":"\nSouth Korea faces geopolitical balancing act as Russia and North Korea align - KOREA PRO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/06\/south-korea-faces-geopolitical-balancing-act-as-russia-and-north-korea-align\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"South Korea faces geopolitical balancing act as Russia and North Korea align - KOREA PRO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Russian leader Vladimir Putin\u2019s visit to Pyongyang marks a deepening of ties between Moscow and Pyongyang. 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