{"id":2205239,"date":"2024-05-24T14:38:11","date_gmt":"2024-05-24T05:38:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2205239"},"modified":"2024-05-27T19:08:03","modified_gmt":"2024-05-27T10:08:03","slug":"chinas-path-to-regional-leadership-remains-uncertain-despite-diplomatic-pivot","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/05\/chinas-path-to-regional-leadership-remains-uncertain-despite-diplomatic-pivot\/","title":{"rendered":"China\u2019s path to regional leadership remains uncertain despite diplomatic pivot"},"content":{"rendered":"

China\u2019s efforts to assert regional leadership by mending ties with South Korea and Japan face significant challenges due to North Korea\u2019s resistance and the potential impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election.<\/span><\/p>\n

China\u2019s \u201cWolf Warrior\u201d diplomacy has strained its relations with democratic nations, particularly evident in South Korea, as Yoon Suk-yeol\u2019s presidency has deepened U.S.-South Korea relations. This has been exacerbated by North Korea\u2019s <\/span>drift toward Moscow<\/span><\/a>, a development that Beijing opposes.<\/span><\/p>\n

The upcoming <\/span>trilateral summit<\/span><\/a> between South Korea, Japan and China exemplifies China’s attempt to regain influence in the region. However, the success of this approach remains uncertain.<\/span><\/p>\n

DIPLOMATIC MISSTEPS<\/b><\/p>\n

During his first year in office, Yoon initially adopted a <\/span>conciliatory approach<\/span><\/a> toward Beijing. However, China\u2019s <\/span>apparent disrespect<\/span><\/a> for South Korea frustrated Yoon, leading him to defy vocal Chinese opposition and <\/span>strengthen ties<\/span><\/a> with the U.S. and Japan despite the political costs.<\/span><\/p>\n

Although China-North Korea relations fare better, gaps persist between the two nations. The pandemic has hindered the full recovery of Sino-DPRK political and economic ties, with high-level bilateral meetings yielding little substance and trade remaining <\/span>below 2019 levels<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pyongyang has prioritized building ties with Moscow, as demonstrated by Kim Jong Un\u2019s <\/span>Sept. 2023 summit<\/span><\/a> with Vladimir Putin in Russia. In contrast, Kim has not held a summit meeting with Xi Jinping since 2019. While China maintains warm ties with Russia, Beijing seeks monopolistic influence over North Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n

China\u2019s Wolf Warrior diplomacy has limited its options for engaging with democratic neighbors, and its influence over North Korea, once a powerful tool in regional relations, has diminished.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

South Korean foreign minister Cho Tae-yul (left) meets with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Beijin, May 13, 2024 | Image: ROK Ministry of Foreign Affairs<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

OPPORTUNITY TO PIVOT<\/b><\/p>\n

Beginning in <\/span>Sept. 2023<\/span><\/a> and accelerating after <\/span>Taiwan\u2019s presidential election<\/span><\/a> in January, China has shifted its approach to East Asia, reverting to its previous pursuit of the status of regional convener.<\/span><\/p>\n

This pivot became apparent after the South Korean parliamentary elections in April. Yoon\u2019s People Power Party, which generally favors <\/span>closer ties with the U.S. over China<\/span><\/a>, saw the opposition Democratic Party, which has advocated greater cooperation with China, keep its majority in the National Assembly.<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korean foreign minister Cho Tae-yul\u2019s <\/span>visit<\/span><\/a> to China in May \u2014 the first such visit in six years \u2014 is the latest sign of Beijing\u2019s concerted effort to improve bilateral ties. Concurrently, China <\/span>agreed<\/span><\/a> to participate in a trilateral summit with the ROK and Japan, slated for the end of the month, after months of South Korean efforts to restart the summits.<\/span><\/p>\n

China has also quietly elevated ties with North Korea since January. Zhao Leji, chairman of China\u2019s National People\u2019s Congress Standing Committee, visited North Korea from April 11 to 13, laying the groundwork for post-pandemic engagement between the two countries, as evidenced by the return of Chinese students.<\/span><\/p>\n

Although North Korea\u2019s relations with Russia have yielded economic benefits, Pyongyang\u2019s objectives vis-\u00e0-vis Beijing remain unchanged: acquiring foreign currency and <\/span>raw materials<\/span><\/a>. Consequently, China and North Korea agreed to loosen pandemic-era customs quarantine measures.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, China\u2019s objectives are more complicated. While China aims to prevent North Korea and Russia from growing <\/span>too close<\/span><\/a>, Beijing primarily seeks to bolster its influence over Pyongyang to gain leverage with South Korea, Japan and the U.S.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

South Korean and Chinese flags, Aug. 27, 2016 | Image: Republic of Korea<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

BEIJING\u2019S SUMMIT ASPIRATIONS<\/b><\/p>\n

A summit meeting between Xi Jinping and Kim Jong Un would solidify China\u2019s shift away from its Wolf Warrior approach while demonstrating its continued regional influence.<\/span><\/p>\n

To this end, China is deliberately repairing its relationships with South Korea and Japan to position itself as a good-faith intermediary. Ideally, for Beijing, a Xi-Kim summit would establish the foundation for South Korea and Japan to engage North Korea through China while excluding the U.S.<\/span><\/p>\n

The timing favors China, given Yoon\u2019s defeat in the South Korean parliamentary election and the U.S. focus on Europe and the Middle East.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, the upcoming U.S. presidential election holds greater significance for China. A Donald Trump victory could disrupt the deepening trilateral ties between the U.S., Japan and South Korea. In the face of uncertainty surrounding post-2024 U.S. policy, Seoul and Tokyo may hedge their bets by strengthening relations with Beijing.<\/span><\/p>\n

A successful Xi-Kim summit would reinforce China\u2019s claim to <\/span>regional leadership<\/span><\/a> amid this uncertainty.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, North Korean support, a crucial element in China\u2019s plan for regional leadership, is notably absent. Despite warming Sino-DPRK relations, North Korea\u2019s reaction to South Korean foreign minister Cho Tae-yul\u2019s China visit, which Pyongyang labeled as \u201c<\/span>begging diplomacy<\/span><\/a>,\u201d indicates North Korea is not on board with China\u2019s approach.<\/span><\/p>\n

This response does not imply North Korea\u2019s unwillingness to improve relations with China. Instead, it reveals its resentment of Beijing\u2019s attempt to control Pyongyang\u2019s foreign policy choices, a recurring theme in Sino-DPRK relations.<\/span><\/p>\n

Although North Korea seeks to enhance its relationship with China, it prefers to engage directly with South Korea, Japan and the U.S. The <\/span>benefits<\/span><\/a> North Korea derives from its engagement with Russia, while temporary, are currently providing leverage for Pyongyang to resist Chinese influence.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and Chinese Premier Li Qiang shake hands at the 2023 Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit, Sept. 7, 2023 | Image: ROK Presidential Office<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

UNCERTAIN OUTCOMES<\/b><\/p>\n

A Xi-Kim summit later this year is plausible, but North Korea\u2019s reaction to potentially warming ROK-China relations reveals its opposition to China\u2019s attempts at facilitating dialogue between North Korea and other parties.<\/span><\/p>\n

In a meeting with Xi, Kim\u2019s objective would be to secure maximum economic concessions and Chinese support, or at least non-interference, for his stance toward North Korea\u2019s neighbors.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, China faces <\/span>economic constraints<\/span><\/a> and pressure to restrain North Korea\u2019s actions, such as intercontinental ballistic missile tests that will elicit a strong response from its neighbors, at least in the short term, as it pursues regional leadership.<\/span><\/p>\n

These factors complicate the likelihood of Xi and Kim agreeing to a summit, and even if one occurs, substantial outcomes remain doubtful.<\/span><\/p>\n

The possibility of a second Trump presidency likely factors into Beijing\u2019s engagement with South Korea and Japan but disincentivizes Pyongyang from aligning closer to Beijing.<\/span><\/p>\n

A Trump administration would increase the likelihood of direct U.S.-DPRK negotiations, potentially leading to a scenario where Pyongyang exploits tensions between the U.S., China, Russia, South Korea and Japan for maximum benefit, mirroring its strategy from 2018 to 2019.<\/span><\/p>\n

While the upcoming trilateral ROK-Japan-China summit may ease tensions between China and its two democratic neighbors, Beijing\u2019s path to regional leadership remains challenging.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by John Lee<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Defense & Security<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

China\u2019s efforts to assert regional leadership by mending ties with South Korea and Japan face significant challenges due to North Korea\u2019s resistance and the potential impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election. China\u2019s \u201cWolf Warrior\u201d diplomacy has strained its relations with democratic nations, particularly evident in South Korea, as Yoon Suk-yeol\u2019s presidency has deepened U.S.-South […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10909,"featured_media":2201136,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[26,28],"class_list":["post-2205239","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-defense-security","tag-inter-korean-foreign-relations"],"yoast_head":"\nChina\u2019s path to regional leadership remains uncertain despite diplomatic pivot - KOREA PRO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/05\/chinas-path-to-regional-leadership-remains-uncertain-despite-diplomatic-pivot\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"China\u2019s path to regional leadership remains uncertain despite diplomatic pivot - KOREA PRO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"China\u2019s efforts to assert regional leadership by mending ties with South Korea and Japan face significant challenges due to North Korea\u2019s resistance and the potential impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election. 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