{"id":2205082,"date":"2024-05-13T18:13:45","date_gmt":"2024-05-13T09:13:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2205082"},"modified":"2024-05-13T18:18:56","modified_gmt":"2024-05-13T09:18:56","slug":"us-and-asian-allies-divided-over-long-term-strategy-to-deal-with-chinas-rise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/05\/us-and-asian-allies-divided-over-long-term-strategy-to-deal-with-chinas-rise\/","title":{"rendered":"US and Asian allies divided over long-term strategy to deal with China\u2019s rise"},"content":{"rendered":"

As the U.S. rallies its Asian allies to counter Chinese and Russian aggression, a growing divergence in long-term strategies for dealing with China’s rise threatens to undermine unity between Washington and its allies.<\/span><\/p>\n

Officials in Washington have been buoyed by the U.S.\u2019 success over the last month in rallying its friends in Asia, including Korea, to stand up to Chinese and Russian aggression. Yet their success glosses over a deepening divergence across the Pacific, not about whether to deter China \u2014 on which there is widespread agreement \u2014 but about whether the ultimate objective is to contain China\u2019s growth or to find a way to live with it.<\/span><\/p>\n

The U.S. is rightly pleased about recent progress.<\/span><\/p>\n

Visiting Washington in April, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida <\/span>told the U.S. Congress<\/span><\/a> that China\u2019s recent actions present \u201cthe greatest strategic challenge\u2026to the peace and stability of the international community at large.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Japan announced it would work with AUKUS (Australia, the U.K. and the U.S.) on technology cooperation, reiterated its commitment to increased defense spending and loosened restrictions on arms exports and strengthened security cooperation with neighbors including South Korea, Australia and the Philippines.<\/span><\/p>\n

During talks with Australia last week, ROK Defense Minister Shin Won-sik <\/span>confirmed<\/span><\/a> Seoul was interested in cooperating with AUKUS and also expressed interest in the Quad.<\/span><\/p>\n

In Washington, Kishida, President Joe Biden and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. held a trilateral discussion that focused heavily on the situation in the South China Sea.<\/span><\/p>\n

New Zealand\u2019s Foreign Minister Winston Peters was also in Washington, vowing to work \u201ceven more closely together\u201d with \u201clike-minded regional partners,\u201d including NATO partners South Korea, Australia and Japan.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida attend a forum, Nov. 17, 2023 | Image: ROK Presidential Office<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

ASIAN PERSPECTIVE<\/b><\/p>\n

From the Asian side of the Pacific, doing more to deter China\u2019s (and Russia\u2019s) recent aggressive behavior makes a lot of sense. China\u2019s recent border clashes with India and Japan across the straits of Taiwan and the Philippines have caused widespread alarm among its neighbors.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kishida has explicitly <\/span>warned<\/span><\/a> that Chinese support for Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine may translate into a direct threat to Taiwan, stating that \u201cUkraine might represent the East Asia of tomorrow.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

After serious border clashes with India in 2020, China deepened its military foothold in the area. Some 120,000 troops are said to face each other across the border.<\/span><\/p>\n

Under Marcos, the Philippines has begun to confront and publicize Chinese incursions into its exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea, with explicit support from the U.S.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, Asian leaders see these moves as defensive, aimed at deterring bad Chinese behavior while seeking to preserve economic ties and cooperation in other areas.<\/span><\/p>\n

Even the Philippines, which has been the victim of brutal clashes with Chinese coastguard vessels in the South China Sea, <\/span>seeks to balance<\/span><\/a> economic and security interests and insists that it values its economic partnership with China.<\/span><\/p>\n

Under President Yoon Suk-yeol, South Korea has significantly strengthened its alliance with the U.S.. Yet Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul reiterated recently that China is \u201ca key partner\u201d with whom Korea will \u201ccontinue to seek a mature and sound relationship.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Following trilateral talks among foreign ministers in November, the ROK, Japan and China have agreed to hold a Leaders\u2019 Summit in Seoul at the end of May, the first since 2019.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

U.S. President Joe Biden hosts a bilateral meeting with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. at the InterContinental Barclay in New York, Sept. 21, 2022 | Image: The White House<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

WASHINGTON\u2019S STANCE<\/b><\/p>\n

The view from Washington is rather different.<\/span><\/p>\n

In an <\/span>article<\/span><\/a> published in April, Matt Pottinger and Mike Gallagher (a former Trump official and a former Republican congressman) bluntly argued that the U.S. must aggressively seek primacy over China.<\/span><\/p>\n

They maintained that the U.S. was engaged in another Cold War, which it needed to \u201cown and win,\u201d implying that regime change in China would be required.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

This is a view from the right wing of the Republican Party and very likely an audition for positions in Trump\u2019s second potential administration.<\/span><\/p>\n

But the current atmosphere of U.S. politics makes it hard for anyone to take a nuanced view of China relations without being demonized as un-American.<\/span><\/p>\n

Under pressure from Republicans, Biden\u2019s administration has toughened its stance on China.<\/span><\/p>\n

As set out by U.S. Secretary of State Blinken in 2022, Washington’s initial view was that China was \u201cintegral to the global economy\u201d and that the U.S. and China \u201chave to deal with each other for the foreseeable future\u201d\u2014but that <\/span>speech<\/span><\/a> was two years ago.<\/span><\/p>\n

Since then, the U.S. has shifted further toward economic nationalism (tariffs, reshoring and massive domestic subsidies for domestic manufacturing) and promoting the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), which notably excludes China.<\/span><\/p>\n

In recent weeks, Biden has ratcheted up his stance, <\/span>calling<\/span><\/a> for a tripling of tariffs on Chinese steel imports and restricting trade in sectors like solar panels and shipbuilding.<\/span><\/p>\n

It is now difficult to distinguish Biden\u2019s China policy from the Republican aim of containing the country economically and militarily.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

U.S. President Joe Biden meets Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Bali, Indonesia, Nov. 14, 2022 | Image: Embassy of the People\u2019s Republic of China in the Independence State of Samoa<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

DIVERGENT VIEWS<\/b><\/p>\n

This is where Asian and U.S. views diverge.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nearly all of Washington\u2019s Asian allies and partners have China as their number one trading partner. Whether or not China\u2019s gross domestic product ever becomes the world\u2019s largest, Asian leaders are clear that China is already too important and enmeshed in the global economy to be sidelined.<\/span><\/p>\n

Most Asian partners find U.S. efforts to engage economically in Asia, such as IPEF, underwhelming and ineffective.<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korea shares, to some extent, the U.S. desire to protect and promote its own high-tech industries from Chinese competition. However, the country\u2019s business sector is concerned that U.S. countermeasures, such as restrictions on electric vehicles and batteries, also cause collateral damage to the ROK.<\/span><\/p>\n

There is little enthusiasm anywhere in the region for combatting Chinese growth. That is seen as both unrealistic and damaging to everyone\u2019s economies.<\/span><\/p>\n

There are various views on tactics, but no Asian country is pushing for outright and permanent U.S. primacy along the lines of Pottinger and Gallagher.<\/span><\/p>\n

Singapore is openly critical of U.S. calls for primacy and confrontation. Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong urged the U.S. and China to \u201cwork out a modus vivendi that will be competitive in some areas without allowing rivalry to poison cooperation in others\u201d in 2020.<\/span><\/p>\n

He observed that Asian countries see the U.S. as a legitimate resident power with vital interests in the region but also recognize that \u201cChina is a reality on the doorstep.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Asian countries do not want to be forced to side with either Washington or Beijing. If either country attempted to force a choice \u2014 for example, if Washington tried to contain China\u2019s rise or Beijing sought to build an exclusive sphere of influence in Asia \u2014 \u201cthey will begin a course of confrontation that will last decades,\u201d Lee said.<\/span><\/p>\n

He concluded that \u201cthe U.S. must decide whether to view China\u2019s rise as an existential threat and try to hold China back through all available means or to accept China as a major power in its own right.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

More recently, former Singaporean Secretary of Foreign Affairs Bilahari Kausikan <\/span>rejected<\/span><\/a> the Cold War analogy as \u201caltogether inappropriate.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cEven the closest U.S. ally is never going to cut itself off from China politically or economically. Few, if any, Western companies are ever going to entirely forswear investing in the Chinese market, even if they become more cautious about transferring technology there.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Presidents Joe Biden and Yoon Suk-yeol hold a joint press conference at the White House, April 27, 2023 | Image: POTUS Twitter<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

SOUTH KOREA\u2019S DILEMMA<\/b><\/p>\n

Like other regional leaders, President Yoon Suk-yeol is committed to deterring China and Russia\u2019s aggressive behavior. Yet like most of his peers, he has been silent on whether the end game is to manage China\u2019s rise in the region or to limit it.<\/span><\/p>\n

The gap in strategic intentions can be papered over for now but will likely become more salient whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden occupies the White House from November.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Having a clear long-term goal in dealing with China is critical for South Korea and other regional partners in assessing the value and risks of initiatives such as AUKUS, Quad and IPEF.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

This issue will hover over the discussion when Yoon hosts Chinese Premier Li Qiang and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida later this month.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

His guests and the South Korean people will want to know whether he shares the \u201cI win you lose\u201d approach advocated by Pottinger and Gallagher or the more realist view of Singapore,\u00a0 where both powers acknowledge they are both going to be around for a long time and need to find a way to share the globe with each other \u2014 without one side or the other necessarily \u201cwinning.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by John Lee<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Business & Economy<\/span><\/a>Defense & Security<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As the U.S. rallies its Asian allies to counter Chinese and Russian aggression, a growing divergence in long-term strategies for dealing with China’s rise threatens to undermine unity between Washington and its allies. 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